NFL upset of the week: Bears will get the best of Vikings in rematch
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Each week during the NFL season, we'll focus on one underdog with a chance to pull off the outright upset. We've been on an absolute tear as of late, cashing on four straight after Washington (+150) upset the 49ers on Sunday - bringing our yearly record to 7-6 with +6.2 units won solely on moneyline underdogs.
We agree with most of the lines this week, but we'll take our shot on the Bears (+155) as road underdogs to the Vikings in a rematch of their Week 10 loss.
Taking care of business
The Bears have been one of the more frustrating teams to bet this year, if only because of the gap between the talent on the roster and their record. That said, they've actually played exactly how you'd expect an average team would, which bodes well for this week's matchup against the 6-7 Vikings.
Chicago is 5-2 this year against teams currently below .500 - including last week's 36-7 romp of the Texans - and 1-5 against all other clubs. It's also ranked No. 2 in Football Outsiders' "variance" metric, which measures the volatility of a team's weekly DVOA.
In short, the Bears win games they're supposed to, while Minnesota has just two wins over teams with six or more victories. One of them came against Chicago in Nick Foles' last start before giving way to Mitchell Trubisky - who's playing at a career-best level and should be able to take advantage of a short-handed Vikings defense.
Numbers spell trouble for Vikings
Oddsmakers have Minnesota priced as equal to - if not better than - Chicago in this one, but advanced stats disagree. The Vikings rank lower in DVOA (No. 15 to No. 18) and PFF team grades (No. 12 to No. 16), which has been a solid predictor of success for short underdogs this year.
In fact, this line actually suggests potential trouble for Minnesota when considering the recent results for these clubs. Since 2017, home favorites of exactly three points coming off a loss are 10-23-3 against the spread and 16-20 straight up - the latter of which is alarming for a team priced as a favorite. When the opponent is coming off a win, as the Bears are, those marks drop to 3-11-1 ATS and 5-10 SU.
Over that same span, underdogs coming off a win of at least 28 points are 10-5 ATS with seven outright wins. The only thing pointing to Minnesota as the better team here is the line, which should concern those backing the home side.
Why the Bears will win
Neither team is top-tier this season, but the Bears' defense has been stout all year and finally has an offense to match given how well Trubisky is playing in his return as a starter. He could be in for another big day if the Vikings are without linebacker Eric Kendricks - whose absence would be a big blow against Chicago's offense, which loves to target its tight ends and running backs.
The Bears are also among the NFL's best against the run, which changes the approach for a Minnesota offense that relies heavily on play-action. All signs point to the upset in a favorable revenge spot for Chicago.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.