NFL Week 15 round-robin moneyline parlay: Navigating choppy waters

We never had a chance last week. The premise of this bet is to seek five underdogs with value, so if almost none win over a weekend, there was no way to win. The Rams kept us from getting shut out, but that doesn't help us here.

We can only hope a few more underdogs will start to care the way they did at the start of the campaign, so there are at least options we can find to get through the last four weeks of the regular season.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. If three teams pull off the upset like in Week 8, Week 10, and Week 11, you'll likely double your money. If four teams win, as they did in Week 3, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, as they did in Week 1, then it's back into the pool, swimming in gold doubloons like heirs to the McDuck fortune.

Who to play

Chargers +145

Reading this too late to grab the Chargers? The Patriots are a reasonable substitute even though Los Angeles gets the nod as the home team at the better price. The charge against the club early in the campaign was its reliance on Justin Herbert to save the day on third (and in some cases fourth) down. But since their bye week, the Chargers have made some adjustments that have drastically improved their early-down success rate.

That will be a challenge for a Chiefs unit that's improved in the last month - the defense. Chris Jones moved back to the inside and caused havoc in the interior, allowing a variety of pass rushers to work the outside. Well, Jones is out of this game due to COVID protocols. And while L.A. is missing stud offensive tackle Rashawn Slater, his replacement will have help, if needed, since Jones won't draw the usual double teams he commands. Herbert gets the time and space to prove that he's right there with Patrick Mahomes as a top quarterback in the league.

While Kansas City's defense will be without a trio of key parts, the Chargers appear to be getting healthier with Derwin James and Asante Samuel potentially in the lineup - obviously critical against the Chiefs' offense.

Falcons +350

I know, we've been down this road with the Falcons before. Their record shows they have success against sides they've been favored over versus games where they've been the underdog. However, you know we need to find a bigger underdog to boost our potential profit, and like last week, pickins' are slim.

Matt Ryan can take advantage of a sketchy 49ers secondary, and San Francisco's dramatic road win on Sunday might mean less than peak performance this week in a stadium that provides zero home-field advantage. What you need to watch for is Atlanta's run game. It's been bad for years, but the club's found something running both Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson off the left side of its offensive line. This success has provided a better play-action opportunity for Ryan that he hasn't had since the peak of Devonta Freeman.

Bengals +130

Speaking of the Bengals, they were on the wrong side of the 49ers' overtime victory. Maybe that game coupled with their big loss to the Chargers is what's brought this game to Broncos -3. That's too much of an adjustment, even with Denver earning recent home wins against the Chargers and the illness-ravaged Lions.

Seahawks +170

For further elaboration, check out the upset of the week, where I wrote about the idea that Russell Wilson might be back to full strength and a two-game winning streak supplying a little belief that they could steal the final playoff spot in the NFC.

Bears +170

It's easy to say the Bears played their Super Bowl at Lambeau Field last week, but a Monday nighter at home should supply the same motivation. Meanwhile, the Vikings are metrically the better team, and it's not like we're getting a ton of value on Chicago. But how many times do we have to see Minnesota keep a lesser team in the game, and how primetime games will Kirk Cousins struggle in before we accept that the Vikings just aren't built for this? The Bears aren't built for much, but Justin Fields is something to get excited about, as is a rare win for Chicago - even if Matt Nagy should be looking for work in early January.

Here are how the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.