NBA Finals series preview, best bet: Celtics are tough draw for favored Warriors

Seven months of basketball, including a month of mostly lopsided postseason action, has led to Warriors versus Celtics, a clash of modern and historic dynasties with each side chock-full of rising stars.

Golden State waltzed through three rounds and will play host in its sixth NBA Finals in eight years. Meanwhile, Boston proved itself against the league's best en route to its first Finals in 12 years. Can this group sustain that success in its toughest test yet, or will the Dubs cap this remarkable run with another trophy?

Here's what to know about this year's NBA Finals, including our best bet to win.

No. 3 Warriors (-160) vs. No. 2 Celtics (+135)

In many ways, this year's NBA Finals matchup has an air of inevitability: The Warriors and Celtics were each the best team in the league over certain periods - Golden State for the first half, Boston for the second - and were both favored to win all three of their playoff series to this point. But the paths they took to get here were very different.

After dominating the league for the better part of the 2010s, the Warriors flipped a switch this postseason and ripped through three rising powers in the West to reclaim their spot in the NBA Finals. Golden State has won 12 of 16 playoff games, posting six double-digit victories, and is a stellar plus-94 in the fourth quarter alone, where the Dubs' relentless attack from the perimeter has worn down the competition.

Of course they've got some familiar faces - Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Kevon Looney - but the newcomers have been the X-factor for this iteration of the Warriors. Jordan Poole (18.4 points per game this postseason) has proven himself to be a lethal weapon when defenses sell out on Curry and Co., while Andrew Wiggins (15.8) is the ultimate two-way wild card on the wing, capable of dropping 25 points or locking up the other team's superstar.

The Celtics boast a combined zero games of NBA Finals experience. That isn't to say this team lacks championship-caliber talent, though. Jayson Tatum (27 points per game) looks like a bona fide star after doing a bit of everything over the last three series, while Jaylen Brown has the scoring chops to go off for 40 on any night. Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III are easily the best one-two defensive punch in the NBA, while Al Horford has turned back the clock in his age-35 season and has been a vital cog in Boston's switching defense.

It all adds up to a compelling clash between two teams that each have enough talent to hoist the Larry O'Brien. So who matches up better in this series?

That's where the Celtics' strengths shine through. Ahead of the Western Conference finals, we highlighted the Mavericks' switching defense as a reason we liked their chances to win the series. The Warriors exposed two major problems with that: Luka Doncic was a weak link who was almost always on the court, and Dallas' interior defense was incapable of deterring easy shots at the rim whenever Golden State's ball-handlers beat their man.

Golden State won't be so lucky this time. Boston's rotation is loaded with capable one-on-one defenders - many of whom can guard four or five positions - which should pose significant issues for a Warriors offense that thrives on off-ball screens and ball movement. That's among the worst ways to attack a switch-heavy defense, especially if it's as long and athletic as this one.

This type of team - long, athletic, switchable - has tended to give Golden State fits in the postseason, especially when it has the talent level to execute its looks, as Boston does. Historically, the Dubs' elite shooting has eventually won out, and that could happen again in this series, too. But don't count on it against these Celtics, who rank third in this postseason in opponent 3-point frequency (36%) and second in opponent 3-point percentage (31.7%).

And then there's the battle of the frontcourt, which skews heavily toward Boston on paper. While the C's don't tend to funnel much of their offense through the paint, that could change if the Warriors lean into their small-ball lineups in this series. The new Death Lineup wreaked havoc on unprepared teams in the first few rounds, but the Celtics have the size to punish it down low, plus enough rangy defensive ability to keep pace on the other end.

After playing just 14.3 minutes per game in the first 10 games of this postseason, Looney has carried Golden State's frontcourt in six starts since, averaging 12.5 rebounds (7.0 offensive) in 29.2 minutes. That worked wonders against the Mavericks, who lacked a true center, but the Celtics have two legit bigs in Williams and Horford who should help neutralize the longtime Warriors center on the boards.

Golden State still has two crucial advantages in this series, both largely intangible: experience and home-court advantage. There's no underselling the value of championship pedigree at this stage, especially in the NBA, where dynasties are commonplace and young stars often cut their teeth in losses. And it doesn't hurt that the Warriors are a perfect 9-0 at home this postseason.

That said, this Celtics team is resilient, having won seven of its nine playoff road games - including a draining series clincher in Miami, where Boston withstood a frantic rally to take its second Game 7 of this postseason. That ability to fight through adversity jibes with what we've seen for months from this group, which is 13-1 following its last 14 losses and a perfect 6-0 following a loss in these playoffs.

The C's will enjoy the extra rest ahead of Thursday's Game 1 after that exhausting series against the Heat - especially with a number of their key pieces playing through major injuries. The Warriors are well-rested, too, and have won Game 1 in 21 of 23 series under Steve Kerr. That's worth considering if you're looking to bet this series and hoping for a better price after the first contest.

Across a seven-game series, however, the Celtics have enough schematic advantages to give these dynastic Warriors trouble. Curry could single-handedly win this with a hot shooting run, sure, but he's historically struggled in the NBA Finals, as have the Warriors against teams cast in Boston's mold. It's easy to make the case for Golden State winning it all - we've seen it time and time again - but at this price, the C's are simply too good to fade.

Best bet: Celtics +135

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].