Premier League: Odds to be relegated
The 2022-23 English Premier League season is set to begin next weekend. While every team is dreaming of the magical possibilities this campaign could bring, the reality is three sides will be relegated when all's said and done.
Let's take a closer look at the relegation market and which teams appear most vulnerable.
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth | -227 |
| Nottingham Forest | +120 |
| Fulham | +125 |
| Leeds United | +225 |
| Brentford | +240 |
| Southampton | +300 |
| Everton | +340 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | +400 |
| Crystal Palace | +600 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | +800 |
| Aston Villa | +900 |
| Leicester City | +1400 |
| West Ham United | +2000 |
| Newcastle United | +2500 |
| Arsenal | +50000 |
| Manchester United | +100000 |
| Tottenham | +100000 |
| Chelsea | +250000 |
| Liverpool | +500000 |
| Manchester City | +500000 |
Bournemouth are understandably the biggest favorite to be demoted to the Championship at season's end. Last season, their expected goals per game (plus-0.39) didn't come close to matching Fulham's (plus-0.96), while their transfer window doesn't come close to resembling Nottingham Forest's.
Bournemouth have yet to spend any money to improve their side. Forest, meanwhile, doled out more than $90 million on players while adding reliable Premier League contributors Jesse Lingard and Dean Henderson (loan) free of charge.
It stands to reason Bournemouth will struggle to keep up with other promoted sides, let alone teams already established in the league.
As is often the case, all promoted teams are seen as most likely to go down. However, the odds imply Forest and Fulham are much closer to their new Premier League counterparts, which feels like a fair assessment.
Leeds United are priced as the most likely non-promoted team to be relegated. Their offense kept them up last season, and the loss of Raphinha - who led them in goals, expected goals, and expected assists - is a heavy blow.
They'll be hoping U.S. international Brenden Aaronson - someone manager Jesse Marcsh is very familiar with - and Luis Sinisterra can combine to replace Raphinha's contributions. If they can't, Leeds could be in big trouble. Only Norwich conceded more expected goals last year, and the loss of Kalvin Phillips in midfield won't help matters.
Not far behind in price are Brentford, although that feels rather egregious. They finished seventh in expected points a season ago and spent nearly $40 million in transfers this offseason, so they should be safe.
Southampton, Everton, and Wolverhampton Wanderers round out the "somewhat realistic" tier.
Among teams remaining in the EPL, Southampton fared better than only Leeds and Leicester City in suppressing expected goals. The Saints realized that was a big problem; three of their four highest-priced signings are a goalkeeper, a defensive midfielder, and a center-back.
Everton are likely in for another tough season by their standards. They finished 16th last season and looked a poor side by expected goals. Their only noteworthy piece of business was selling Richarlison to Tottenham Hotspur.
Lastly, we have Wolves. They finished ahead of only Burnley, Watford, and Norwich - the three relegated sides - in expected points. They were among the league's worst offensively and haven't done much to rectify that.
The rest of the Premier League can realistically be viewed as safe, although Leicester are probably the biggest team most likely to make things interesting.
They finished 17th in expected goals against last season and didn't fare much better in terms of actual goals against. Despite a poor defensive record and process, they haven't made any transfers to upgrade the backline. That could come back to bite them.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.