NFL Offensive Player of the Year betting: Turning fantasy into reality
Quarterbacks always get the attention, from Pop Warner Football to MVP voting in the NFL. But when it comes to the AP Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY), it's the skill position players' time to shine. A non-quarterback can be expected to win the award just over half the time.
There is, however, a significant requirement for a wide receiver or running back to get the nod: a near-historic season. Here are the winners for the last three seasons:
- Michael Thomas (2019): caught the most passes in NFL history and had a top-10 yardage season.
- Derrick Henry (2020): fell 78 yards short of Eric Dickerson's all-time single-season rushing record.
- Cooper Kupp (2021): fell just shy of Thomas's 149 receptions and 17 yards shy of Calvin Johnson's record 1964 yards.
The NFL saw its record for yards from scrimmage broken in 1985, 1997, 1999, and 2009. In each of those years, the player who broke the record won OPOY.
What about the other almost-half of the time that quarterbacks win this award? They have to flirt with history, too. In 1984, Dan Marino won OPOY after setting the single-season touchdown record. Every quarterback who has since surpassed his 48 passing touchdowns in one season won that year's award. Drew Brees won OPOY twice on the strength of historically huge yardage seasons.
The "be historically awesome" concept has rung true for three NFL eras, for the three most recent seasons, and for three different positions.
Offensive Player of the Year odds
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | +1000 |
| Cooper Kupp | +1200 |
| Justin Jefferson | +1200 |
| Deebo Samuel | +1400 |
| Derrick Henry | +1500 |
| Davante Adams | +2000 |
| Josh Allen | +2000 |
| Nick Chubb | +2000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +2500 |
| Justin Herbert | +2500 |
| Lamar Jackson | +2500 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +2500 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +3000 |
| Joe Burrow | +3000 |
| Kyler Murray | +3000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +4000 |
| Dak Prescott | +4000 |
| Jalen Hurts | +4000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +4000 |
| Russell Wilson | +4000 |
| Tom Brady | +4000 |
| Trey Lance | +4000 |
| Aaron Jones | +5000 |
| Javonte Williams | +5000 |
| Travis Kelce | +5000 |
| Tyreek Hill | +5000 |
| CeeDee Lamb | +6000 |
| Joe Mixon | +6000 |
| Stefon Diggs | +6000 |
| Alvin Kamara | +7500 |
| Austin Ekeler | +7500 |
| Derek Carr | +7500 |
| Elijah Mitchell | +7500 |
| George Kittle | +7500 |
| Jameis Winston | +7500 |
| Mac Jones | +7500 |
| Najee Harris | +7500 |
| Raheem Mostert | +7500 |
| Saquon Barkley | +7500 |
Odds available on theScore Bet, players not listed above available at 100-1 or longer
Kupp is the favorite this year because he did it last year and - barring Matthew Stafford's lingering elbow issues becoming a bigger deal - he has the same circumstances for success this season. But one could say the same about many past winners, and there hasn't been a back-to-back victor for this award in more than 20 years - since Marshall Faulk and "The Greatest Show on Turf."
Best bets
In this era, the Offensive Player of the Year Award could be renamed the Fantasy Football Player of the Year Award. Since we're trying to determine who might chase statistical highs, why not turn to theScore's Justin Boone and compare his fantasy football draft rankings to this odds market?
CeeDee Lamb (+6000)
The following chart has Boone's standard-league wide receiver rankings alongside the market's odds:
| RANK | PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cooper Kupp | +1200 |
| 2 | Justin Jefferson | +1200 |
| 3 | Ja'Marr Chase | +3000 |
| 4 | Davante Adams | +2000 |
| 5 | Stefon Diggs | +6000 |
| 6 | CeeDee Lamb | +6000 |
| 7 | Tyreek Hill | +5000 |
| 8 | Deebo Samuel | +1400 |
| 9 | A.J. Brown | +10000 |
| 10 | Mike Evans | +15000 |
CeeDee Lamb has first-round pedigree, a high expected target share from a proven quarterback in Dak Prescott, and better odds than those around him. All three things make him a good bet.
Christian McCaffrey (+2500)
Here are Boone's standard-league running back rankings and the corresponding odds:
| RANKING | PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | +2500 |
| 2 | Jonathan Taylor | +1000 |
| 3 | Derrick Henry | +1500 |
| 4 | Austin Ekeler | +7500 |
| 5 | Dalvin Cook | +3000 |
| 6 | Joe Mixon | +6000 |
| 7 | D'Andre Swift | +10000 |
| 8 | Najee Harris | +7500 |
| 9 | Aaron Jones | +5000 |
| 10 | Saquon Barkley | +7500 |
| 11 | Alvin Kamara | +7500 |
If one of fantasy football's most accurate projectors gives a No. 1 ranking to a player who finished top-three in OPOY voting just three years ago, and that player has better odds than those ranked behind him, take the 25-1. Christian McCaffrey is a solid play here.
Lamar Jackson (+2500)
Here are Boone's fantasy quarterback rankings with OPOY odds:
| RANKING | PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | +2000 |
| 2 | Justin Herbert | +2500 |
| 3 | Lamar Jackson | +2500 |
| 4 | Patrick Mahomes | +2500 |
| 5 | Joe Burrow | +3000 |
| 6 | Jalen Hurts | +4000 |
| 7 | Kyler Murray | +3000 |
| 8 | Trey Lance | +4000 |
| 9 | Russell Wilson | +4000 |
| 10 | Tom Brady | +4000 |
| 11 | Dak Prescott | +4000 |
| 12 | Aaron Rodgers | +4000 |
This corner of the market is largely in lockstep with Boone's rankings, and it's telling that the shortest odds are a fairly lengthy 20-1. After all, we have our "be historically awesome" premise, and hitting 5,500 yards or 50-plus touchdowns is really hard.
But what if a quarterback can do something else to set himself apart?
Cam Newton won this award in 2015 when he accumulated a combined 45 touchdowns by being a factor on the ground as well as through the air. Lamar Jackson was on pace for 4,000-plus yards passing before suffering an injury last season, and 1,000-plus rushing yards has been a regular accomplishment in years past. Jackson is capable of a slight bump in those numbers and an improvement on his career-best 36-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio from 2019. In other words, dual-threat highs from Jackson are more likely than a historically great season from one of the passers around him.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.