NFL Week 10 teasers: Expanding parameters with lines tightening
Week 9's teaser legs were going along nicely, undefeated on Sunday, until the Saints got physically overwhelmed by the Ravens in the Superdome on Monday night in a spot where they've usually played with a lot more energy. This week, New Orleans goes from just having to stay competitive at home to a team we're supposed to worry about winning by margin on the road - a strange reversal in Pittsburgh.
With three different games (Vikings-Commanders, Chargers-Falcons, Rams-Buccaneers) pushing a point spread of -3 last week, it goes to show: If the spread of any game lined at a field goal tightens toward a pick'em, a tease up to +8.5 is probably in order.
Some games don't have a teaser-worthy point spread. For example, the Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites at home to the Jaguars. Teasing the Chiefs would capture some key numbers, but even if Kansas City wins by a field goal - as it did against the Titans - that's a loss for us. The alternative point spread of Chiefs -3.5 is priced at -240, which tells you that a teaser leg of -270 isn't valuable at all.
Teasing Jacksonville up to +16.5 seems appealing, but if you're worried about the Jaguars losing by 10-14 points, you have to be worried about them losing by 17, and getting +10 to +16 over a big sample size isn't worth the price hike to -270.
Speaking of alternative spreads, this week's Thursday Night Football game has found its way into teaser territory. The Panthers moved from a field-goal underdog to +2.5 in a rematch with the Falcons that went to overtime just two weeks ago. Let's use a potentially tight divisional game with a low total as an example of how teasing Carolina is valuable.
| ALT. SPREAD | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Panthers +3.5 | -150 |
| Panthers +4.5 | -175 |
| Panthers +5.5 | -185 |
| Panthers +6.5 | -225 |
| Panthers +7.5 | -280 |
| Panthers +8.5 | -310 |
Notice the pricing significantly jumps once you move across the key number of +7, showing the importance of capturing that number in NFL betting. More importantly, the Panthers' alternative spread (+8.5) is priced at -310, which is obviously much higher than getting them at +8.5 with a teaser leg at -270.
To get a good deal on the Panthers (+8.5), we must pair them with another bet and win both to cash the ticket. Fortunately, we can choose that other leg from our weekly "teaser basket" using what we know about key numbers.
Teaser basket
Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 10:
| TEAM | SPREAD | TEASER LEG |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Seahawks | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Steelers | +2 | +8 |
| Texans | +5 | +11 |
| Broncos | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| 49ers | -7 | -1 |
| Eagles | -11 | -5 |
The first thing you'll notice is that we've expanded the parameters of the teaser basket to include more than just legs that capture -3 through -7. Now that we're into Week 10, we can be reasonably confident that we have a solid understanding of teams' capabilities.
There are two games where a firm handle on the teams' rating might lead to an unorthodox teaser leg. The first occurs in Texans-Giants, where New York opened as a 7-point favorite. The betting market decided that it was a lot to ask of the Giants to go from consistently being lined as underdogs to winning by more than a converted touchdown, then an unconverted touchdown, and finally less than a touchdown. Who are we to argue? Taking the Texans up to +11 asks even more of the Giants.
The other unconventional teaser leg comes from Monday night's game in Philadelphia. The Commanders' last five games finished within six points of the spread, so the market's rating of them in the bottom third of the league has held up. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 8-0 with six wins coming by eight points or more and a plus-56 point differential in their four home games. Philadelphia already won 24-8 in Washington. An 11-point spread leaves the Eagles vulnerable to a backdoor cover with a meaningless touchdown in a 17-point game, but taking them down to -5 is much more reasonable, leaving open the backup plan of a late touchdown to cover in a surprisingly close game.
Of the other five options in the basket, just the 49ers are in the "tease-down" category - a better value at -1 (-270) than on the moneyline at -320 - if you believe they'll at least win on Sunday Night Football. The four "tease-up" legs are daring the Buccaneers, Falcons, Saints, and Titans to win by two scores, and those four teams have struggled to separate from opponents.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.