Wild Card Weekend betting: Where does value lie in the NFC?

If familiarity breeds contempt, we're going to have some ornery teams in Wild Card Weekend, as all six games are rematches from the regular season. The NFC provides three different types of rematches: a third meeting between division rivals, a rematch between teams that met recently, and a return meeting between two teams that played so long ago it's hard to remember it even happened.

See also: Where does value lie in the AFC?

We have a season's worth of data, making every spread and total tight as a drum; within hours of Sunday's soft openers, the lines were bet into their appropriate place.

Seahawks @ 49ers (-9.5, 42.5)

In Week 2, the Seahawks were coming off their big win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos on Monday night, while the Trey Lance-led 49ers had lost 19-10 to the Bears. The 49ers closed at -8.5 at home, gave up just 219 yards and no offensive touchdowns, and beat Seattle convincingly. Then San Francisco closed at -3 in Seattle in mid-December - a 5.5-point change due to home-field flipping and a marginal upgrade to the Seahawks, which were having a better season than expected.

Now flipping back to Levi's Stadium, there's an implication in the line that the 49ers are better than they were perceived to be on Dec. 15. I attribute that to Brock Purdy proving himself repeatedly since then, including that first road start on a short week. Again, Seattle wasn't able to crack 300 total yards on offense. It took Geno Smith and the Seahawks over 116 minutes to score a touchdown against the 49ers' defense over the course of two meetings.

Defensively, the Seahawks held the Rams to 269 yards in last week's must-win game - their first contest without leading tackler Jordyn Brooks. Going to San Francisco will be a different challenge, given the 49ers have scored 37 (vs. Commanders), 37 (vs. Raiders), and 38 (vs. Cardinals) to close out the season. Even a healthy Hawks defense is worse than those opponents in rushing yards per carry, and San Francisco's offense starts with success on the ground.

Pick: 49ers -9.5

Giants @ Vikings (-3, 48.5)

The Vikings closed at -4.5 at home to the Giants on Christmas Eve and failed to cover in a 27-24 win. That game came amid four straight non-covers for the Vikings - a streak snapped when the Bears rolled over for Minnesota in Week 18. Meanwhile, the Giants finished the season covering four straight to take the mythical "against the spread" title, going 13-4 ATS this season.

This matchup, between a team that always seems to cover versus one that looks bad even when they do, should lead to a line adjustment just a few weeks later, but what should bettors do about it for one game? It's tricky, especially given that it's not just a point-and-a-half line move, it's a move onto the key number of three - which would have registered a push the first time around.

The issue for the Vikings is getting a stop when they need one, or at all. Daniel Jones had just two games where he threw for more than 228 yards, and one of them was a 334-yard performance in Minnesota. That's in line with a Vikings defense that's third-worst in yards per pass attempt.

The Giants lost the turnover battle with a minus-2 margin, and the Vikings converted three of four trips in the red zone, while New York had just one of two conversions on their trips inside Minnesota's 20-yard line. But the Vikings still needed a 61-yard field goal to win.

Pick: Giants +3 (+100)

Cowboys @ Buccaneers (+2.5, 45.5)

The Buccaneers started the season by tormenting the Cowboys' offense in Dallas on the way to a 19-3 win. The market continued to buy into Tampa for way longer than it should have - which is why the Bucs finished with the worst record in the league ATS. It took the betting market about 16 weeks to figure out that the Bucs are merely average this season, finally setting a line they could cover - as 3.5-point favorites at home to the Panthers in Week 17.

Dak Prescott was hurt late in Week 1, and that started a sell-run on Dallas. Since Prescott's returned, though, the Cowboys have gotten more credit in the market than they deserve - like the Bucs for much of the year. The difference, based on the Cowboys opening as road favorites, is that the market hasn't figured out Dallas's mediocrity in the way it finally did with Tampa.

The Cowboys excel in the red zone on both sides of the ball, and their defense totals enough takeaways to offset Prescott's league-high 15 interceptions in just 12 games. However, Tom Brady isn't as easy to take the ball from as some of Dallas' other opposing quarterbacks, like Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence, Gardner Minshew, and Joshua Dobbs. The Bucs' pass protection is a concern, but if they can get Ryan Jensen back at center as expected, Tampa's offense can have success against a Cowboys defense that's struggled in the latter half of the season.

Last season, the Rams thought they had vanquished Brady numerous times, but the GOAT single-handedly kept Tampa close, and I expect him to do the same here if not win the game outright in an unfamiliar role as a home underdog, which allows us to tease them up with the best teaser leg on the AFC side.

Pick: Buccaneers +8.5 (Teaser leg No. 2)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.