Dolphins-Bills player props: Biting on Josh Allen, spotting TD value

We've had fun all season long with the NFL's version of "Must See TV" Thursdays. We've tried to keep things light, using the famous TV show "Seinfeld" to help with our look at the prop markets and get us in the right state of mind. While the playoffs mean it's more serious for the players, we should be reminded that it's still just any other game for bettors, and there are still lessons to be taken from Jerry, George, Elaine, and Kramer.

"I had a feeling this was too good to be true. I knew there had to be another side to you."
"There's no side."
"There is a side, an ugly side." - Jerry's latest girlfriend, Amy - played by actress Anna Gunn - when he passive-aggressively accuses her of kissing his Cousin Jeffrey.

Ironically, if Gunn's character had the same intuition about her husband in "Breaking Bad" as her character in Episode 3 of Season 5 of "Seinfeld" had about Jerry, things for Walter White might have gone differently. For both "Heisenberg" and the Dolphins on Sunday, worrying about what a "Skylar" might do is top of mind.

In "The Glasses," George has lost his spectacles, and the resulting inability to see - and his stubbornness to admit it - leads to all kinds of problems for the rest of the group. With Tua Tagovailoa out and Teddy Bridgewater merely an emergency option, Skylar Thompson, and his inability to read a complex defense, hurts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle's chances for success. We don't often see a point spread get bigger while a total gets shorter, but that's how the Dolphins' offense has been perceived in betting markets this week with Thompson expected to be the starting quarterback.

'The Glasses'

As of Friday afternoon, you have to squint like Costanza in order to find any available Dolphins' player props, so we're left picking through Bills bets like George looking for new frames at the eye doctor.

If the Dolphins' offense isn't going to click, there should be more possessions available than usual for Buffalo. Miami's offense can have some success with a conservative run-heavy game plan, so I don't expect a consistent wave of turnovers and short fields, but more along the lines of frequent punting. The Bills will still have to earn their points on offense.

Only three teams have been better against the run than Miami this season, which suits Josh Allen just fine in what should be surprisingly favorable conditions for throwing in Buffalo. In their previous two meetings, Allen attempted 103 total passes without an interception. That may be due to Miami giving up the fifth-most receptions to running backs and third-most catches to tight ends this season. More than half of Allen's 25 completions in the previous meeting went to tailbacks and tight ends. The easy throws will be there for Allen.

Pick: Josh Allen over 22.5 pass completions

A TD that's definitely going to happen

It took Anna Gunn about 15 years to go from a single Seinfeld cameo to dealing with Albuquerque's finest cook. It took less than 15 weeks for the Bills to go from leaning on Devin Singletary to focusing on James Cook.

Prior to Week 13, the most snaps that Cook saw was 16. From Week 14 onwards, Cook's average snaps doubled at 28.6 per game. In those final five games, Cook has had 55 touches, while Singletary had 60.

With something close to a 50/50 usage split, and Singletary being priced closer to even money, there's some value on Cook, who has an average depth of target (ADOT) two yards further than Singletary in the passing game. If Buffalo wants to "pick a face and go with it," Cook can split out wide when the Bills try to spread the Dolphins' defense out.

Pick: James Cook anytime touchdown (+175)

A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does

The Dolphins' offense is not going to be cranking at the 12,000 BTUs of Kramer's Commando-8, and this bet may result in a metaphorical air conditioner falling on us. But the market thinks Dolphins' touchdowns will be few and far between, which creates some deals in the anytime touchdown market akin to getting 30% off on a new A/C unit, or new glasses, just because you know Kramer.

There will be a lot of "biting onion" moments for Thompson - on the road in Buffalo for his first playoff start - but he could spot a dime or two as well. When young quarterbacks panic on a big stage, they do one of two things - they either throw it in a bad place, or they run for their lives. Which of those they choose depends on their instinct. Thompson had 26 rushing touchdowns at Kansas State, so he's an instinctual scrambler.

If the Dolphins get near the end zone, and the Bills' defense constricts the passing options, maybe Thompson takes off for the pylon, or sneaks in for a rare Miami touchdown.

Pick: Skylar Thompson anytime touchdown (+850)

How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.