NBA playoffs betting preview: Play-in picks, title outrights, and a 1st-round upset

Betting on the NBA in the regular season is an arduous task, with players who are critical to the point spread often opting out of matchups late on game day. Beating the market to the best number on a nightly basis in pro basketball is one of the toughest challenges in sports betting. There's perhaps no greater example of the lack of interest in competing than this past weekend, when the Mavericks sat their star players before a game that technically could have gotten them into the play-in tournament, effectively punting on the season.

It's sweet relief when the postseason rolls around. In a league where the available personnel means more to a team's win probability than it does in any other, the players we expect to be on the court will actually be there.

Play-in tournament

(8) Hawks @ (7) Heat (-5, 226.5)

The Hawks have already fired their head coach while "Heat Culture" has been part of the NBA lexicon for years. The point spread might be a tad inflated in favor of Miami, but we don't have to go back far to see how this playoff matchup might play out. The Heat beat the Hawks 4-1 in a first-round series last year with largely the same personnel. Three of four victories came by double digits, and the fourth was an 11-point game heading into the fourth quarter.

If we're hoping for an upset, we're looking for a team that takes the most efficient shots in basketball. With a league-worst Rim & 3 rate according to ShotQuality, that's not who the Hawks are, and the Heat have the NBA's fourth-best adjusted defensive shot quality.

Pick: Heat (-5)

(8) Timberwolves @ (7) Lakers (-7, 229.5)

Things are a bit chaotic in Minnesota right now, so it's probably a good thing the Timberwolves are on the road for this play-in game, but if you were hoping for an inflated line to back an ugly 'dog (often a good strategy), you won't find it here.

On March 31, the Lakers were -1 in Minnesota, so if you flipped three points worth of home-court advantage (through neutral to Los Angeles), Lakers -7 would be a fair line. Add in that Minnesota - not a particularly deep team - will be missing starting wing Jaden McDaniels and this line might actually be short, especially considering how well the Lakers have played since getting both LeBron James and Anthony Davis back.

Pick: Lakers (-7)

(10) Bulls @ (9) Raptors (-5, 214.5)

The Bulls don't take efficient shots - they're 20th in adjusted offensive shot quality - but they do make them. While the Raptors take better shots, sitting seventh in AdjOFF SQ, they don't fall; they're third-worst in the NBA in 3-point shooting.

This game has the lowest total of the four scheduled play-in games for a reason, and it should look similar to their late February meeting that was tied heading into the fourth quarter. The difference may come down to a more aggressive DeMar DeRozan, so getting five points in what should be a close game is appealing.

Pick: Bulls (+5)

(10) Thunder @ (9) Pelicans (-5, 228.5)

One of the biggest surprises of the season takes on one of its big disappointments, and call me crazy, but I'll take the Thunder.

Oklahoma City and the Pelicans both finished the season 12-8 - a good run of form for teams in the 9-10 game - but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with 33.5 points per game down the stretch, is ready for a star turn in a rare appearance on national TV.

Given OKC's slight advantage on both sides of the court in ShotQuality metrics, I'll back SGA to keep this at least a one-possession game in crunch time.

Pick: Thunder (+5)

Championship odds

The Bucks start the playoffs as favorites, though the Celtics are arguably the best team in not only the East, but the league. There are no deals to be had on big brands like the Warriors or the Lakers. If you were wondering whether the NBA schedule was still 82 games long, you wouldn't know it by looking at the Clippers' player stats; none of their nine highest scorers played in more than 65 games, and Paul George is expected to miss much of the first round against the Suns.

Best bet: Nuggets (+800)

With just enough implied win probability on the oddsboard gobbled up by big names and recent success stories in the West, the Nuggets potentially have a decent path to at least the conference finals. They're as healthy as they have been in years, and they offer the best value at a price you'd be happy to have if Nikola Jokic can lead them into the Finals.

Series odds

There's not much in the way of toss-ups in the first round, and each of the four yet-to-be-determined series should see the top seeds as very heavy favorites. The odds that do jump off the page are next to the Kings.

Having home-court advantage in a playoff-starved market against a team that rarely won on the road should bode well for Sacramento, which can certainly run with the Warriors from an offensive efficiency standpoint.

At +230, a bet on the Kings' no. 1 AdjOFF SQ is enough to take a shot on the underdog in a series that should happily keep you up late for the next two weeks.

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.