An assessment of Juan Soto's true market value

Juan Soto, the premier free agent on the market this season, wants Shohei Ohtani money - and he doesn't want it to be deferred.

No team has ever handed out anything close to that deal, even adjusting for inflation.

Yes, Ohtani signed a $700-million deal with the Dodgers last winter, a record in terms of guaranteed pay.

But because the deal was so heavily deferred, inflation will eat away at the eventual value. Ohtani is making a relative pittance, $2 million a year through 2033, then he'll receive $68 million in annual payments after that.

The inflation-adjusted value of the deal is worth $438 million over 10 years, according to the MLB Players' Association.

In other words, Soto's initial demands far exceed the present value of what Ohtani received.

Do Soto's on-field performance and youth - he just turned 26 - make him worth such a deal? Or is it just posturing by his camp early in the negotiation process? Soto is represented by super agent Scott Boras, whose record of accomplishment is unmatched with star-level players.

Based on recent comparative deals combined with market inflation, can we figure out what he's actually worth?

One issue in assessing Soto's value is he doesn't have many comps.

A player this young and this good rarely comes available in free agency. Aaron Judge's first full season in the majors was his age-25 campaign, the most common debut age for MLB players.

The last time a star player entering his age-26 season was available in free agency was in the 2018-19 offseason when there were two: Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

Let's examine their production and their contracts.

Harper averaged 3.1 fWAR over the three seasons leading into his free agency. It wasn't until March that he signed a 13-year, $330-million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies that included no opt-outs. It remains the third-biggest free-agent deal in history. Including players who signed extensions with their teams, it's ranked eighth.

Based upon his three-year performance leading into free agency, his deal was worth $8.2 million per win above replacement, assuming he'd continue to meet his prior production level.

Machado was more productive entering that offseason.

He averaged 4.86 fWAR over the previous three seasons. He signed a 10-year, $300-million deal in February, beating Harper to become the first $300-million free agent in history. The deal was worth $6.2 million per win above replacement.

Soto was a better performer than either during the last three years, averaging 5.93 fWAR.

And he's improved his performance in back-to-back seasons, while Machado and Harper were more uneven.

Just on performance alone, Soto should attract the most dollars. But we also must consider the increase in MLB revenues and player salaries since Harper and Machado signed, with increases by about 15% and 14%, respectively.

If one averages the dollar-per-WAR valuations of the Machado and Harper deals and then adds a 15% inflation bump, the result is a $48.88-million average annual value for Soto's contract.

Apply that average over a 13-year term, and it yields a total of $635.5 million. So, perhaps Soto's demand for $700 million isn't that far off.

This week, FanGraphs released its top 50 free agents, which includes a crowdsourcing prediction of what Soto will earn. That crowd's median forecast for Soto: 13 years and $585 million. A bit lighter than my estimate, but still a record in terms of adjusted dollars.

Either figure blows away the overall No. 2-ranked free-agent contract (Judge’s $360-million deal). And when adjusting for inflation, Soto might easily exceed Ohtani in purchasing power.

Maybe he'll top him in raw dollars, too. After all, Soto should have the Mets and Yankees bidding against each other.

With so many large-market clubs interested in Soto, he could perhaps push toward $700 million in non-deferred income. It's a massive salary demand, but it might not be far off from his true value based on recent history and growing revenues.

Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.