NFL Week 4 picks: Can the Chargers spoil Dart's debut?

Well ... 6-10 wasn't the record I was hoping for. I even caught a lucky break with the Eagles covering against the Rams on a last-second field goal block that Philly returned for a touchdown, so I can't even complain about near misses.

With that said, going 2-2 on five-star plays was the silver lining. The Chargers snuck out a cover over the Broncos, and the Colts cruised past the Titans to cover 4.5 points. Shame on me for trusting the Cowboys on the road, and I don't think I was alone in being shocked about the Packers' struggles against the Browns.

Let's get back to the grind and try to pick ourselves some winners. And if you're looking for player props to back, we have you covered here.

🏈 Check out all of the Week 4 markets on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Jump to: Late slate

🏈 Pick: Steelers (+2.5)

The Steelers and Vikings face off in the first European game of the season, as the two will meet in Dublin for a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff.

The Steelers aren't a great football team, but there's a chance they can finish the season as a .500 club. They have road wins this campaign over the Jets and Patriots (not much to write home about), and they lost a strange game filled with mental mistakes to the Seahawks at home. Now, Pittsburgh is getting points in a neutral-site contest against the Carson Wentz-led Vikings.

Wentz looked fine in his first start for the purple and gold, but Minnesota didn't ask him to do much, with the Vikings' defense dominating the Bengals and scoring two touchdowns. Wentz threw only 20 passes, while Jordan Mason handled 16 carries for 116 yards in his first game as the team's lead back.

All said, it's still a scary proposition to lay points with Wentz, especially in a neutral-site matchup overseas. This could be an ugly, low-scoring contest, so I'll side with the underdog. I don't feel great about it.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Chargers (-6.5)

The Jaxson Dart era in New York has begun. The Giants have handed the keys over to their rookie quarterback, benching Russell Wilson for the remainder of the season.

The spread didn't move after the news broke, meaning the betting market views Dart and Wilson as equals. It can't get much worse at the quarterback position for New York, and it's unlikely to get much better in Dart's first start.

The Chargers present a tough test for Dart. Even without Khalil Mack, Los Angeles' defense will still cause problems, while Justin Herbert should be able to score a bunch of points to force Dart to keep up. Herbert is playing at an MVP level, and the Giants' defense, with its underperforming front seven, won't have answers.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Bills -15.5

The Bills are favored by 15.5 points over the Saints. Yes, you read that right - 15.5 points! It's hard to picture a game with a higher spread for the rest of the season, and I'll still take the Bills to win by 16 or more.

New Orleans was dismantled by the Seahawks on the road last week, losing 44-13. Buffalo is a far better team than Seattle and should be able to secure another convincing win. The Bills beat the Jets by 20 points in Week 2, demonstrating their ability to win by a substantial margin.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Falcons (-2.5)

Jayden Daniels will miss his second straight game, and the line moved drastically to reflect that. The Commanders were 2.5-point favorites earlier in the week and are now getting 2.5 points on the road.

Marcus Mariota worked his magic last week against the Raiders, but a repeat performance may be a tough task. The Commanders will also be without Terry McLaurin.

The Falcons were riding high after an impressive Monday night victory over the Vikings in Week 2 before last week's debacle in Carolina. Atlanta should rebound nicely against a backup quarterback and suspect defense to pick up an important home victory.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Titans (+7.5)

The Texans have done absolutely nothing this campaign to warrant being favored by over a touchdown to anyone. Houston is 0-3 and averaging 12.7 points per game, the fewest in the NFL.

The Titans may not be good, but they're scrappy enough to hang around in a low-scoring affair against a division rival. Tennessee covered on the road against the Broncos in Week 1 and put up a solid fight against the Rams in Week 2. Yes, the Colts beat them by 21 points, but the Texans' offense doesn't compare to Indianapolis' offensive operation.

This contest has a total of only 38.5, so it's best to take the underdog in what should be a tight defensive battle.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Browns (+10.5)

The Browns pulled off an impressive upset at home against the Packers last week, proving they have one of the league's best defensive units. Cleveland held the Packers to only 10 points, winning on a last-second field goal and ruining plenty of survivor contest entries.

The Lions won a huge road game on Monday Night Football against the Ravens, and now they have a short week to prepare for Myles Garrett and Co. Detroit's offense looks to be firing on all cylinders, just as it did for most of last season, but the Packers did shut it down.

I'll trust the Browns' defense to keep this one close and slow down the Lions' offense, something neither the Bears nor Ravens did. Detroit should win this game at home, but it won't be by double digits.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Eagles (-3.5)

I can't get the Buccaneers correct. After picking against them in Weeks 1 and 2 and being wrong, I laid the points with Tampa Bay last week against the Jets, moving to 0-3 in games involving this team.

Still, the Bucs haven't really impressed this season, winning all three contests by a combined six points. And none of those victories were against anyone close to the Eagles' caliber. Mike Evans is also doubtful for the matchup, removing a key playmaker from Baker Mayfield's arsenal.

Philadelphia can beat you in several ways, whether that's on the ground, through the air, or with its defense. Jalen Hurts threw for 226 passing yards and three touchdowns while playing catch-up against the Rams. It's reassuring to know that the Eagles' passing attack is still capable of moving the ball, considering that's the best way to exploit the Bucs' defense.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Panthers (+5.5)

The Panthers might be viewed as one of the league's worst teams, but they're still 2-1 against the spread following their blowout victory over the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Patriots are winless at home and have only beaten the lowly Dolphins this season.

Similar to Houston, New England hasn't done enough this year to be favored by more than a field goal over anyone. It has fumbling issues on offense, and its defense isn't anything to be afraid of.

Carolina has its flaws, but the team scored 52 points combined in its most recent two games and should score enough to cover 5.5 points.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Check out all of the Week 4 markets on ESPN BET and theScore here

🏈 Pick: Jaguars (+3.5)

I'll be honest - I have no clue which side to take in this game. The 49ers continue to deal with a slew of injuries, headlined by Nick Bosa's season-ending ACL tear. Brock Purdy did return to practice, but it's unknown if he'll play.

San Francisco edged Arizona by one point last week and beat the Saints by five in Week 2 for the club's largest margin of victory this season. Jacksonville is a solid team despite its struggles on offense. Let's roll with the healthier side getting more than a field goal in what should be a low-scoring game.

Confidence level: ★☆☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Rams (-3.5)

Although the Colts have impressed this year, this is the spot they'll come crashing back to earth.

With two home victories and a win in Tennessee against a bad Titans squad, Daniel Jones hasn't really been tested on the road yet. However, the Rams are a massive step up in competition and easily the best team Indy has played this season.

L.A. should've won last week in Philadelphia. If it had, this spread would be a couple of points bigger than 3.5. Sean McVay will have a game plan to make Jones' day difficult and put Matthew Stafford in good positions to score points.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Bears (+1.5)

The Raiders are a disaster. They have a horrendous offensive line that can't protect Geno Smith or create holes for Ashton Jeanty, and their defense just allowed 41 points to a Mariota-led offense. The only positive thing to say about them in this contest is that they're at home.

The Bears are fresh off a 31-14 drumming of the Cowboys - a team that rates similarly to the Raiders. Caleb Williams is starting to play a lot better after a shaky opening game against the Vikings, and he has Chicago averaging 25.3 points per contest, which ranks ninth in the league. While the Bears' defense has issues, the Raiders' offense isn't much of a concern, averaging only 17.7 points a game.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Ravens (-2.5)

As home underdogs against a true Super Bowl contender, the Chiefs are in the same spot they were in two weeks ago against the Eagles. Kansas City lost that game by three and hasn't done anything since to suggest a different outcome will occur against the Ravens.

The Chiefs beat the Giants on Sunday night to pick up their first win of the season. However, without sufficient talent around Patrick Mahomes, their offense lacks the arsenal to capitalize on the Ravens' underachieving defense. If Mahomes had all of his weapons at full strength, this would be a much different story.

Baltimore is coming off a tough loss against the Lions and will surely be motivated to defeat its AFC rival. Lamar Jackson is neck and neck as the MVP favorite with Josh Allen despite the Ravens' 1-2 record. Baltimore is scoring a league-high 37 points per game, doing so against some tough defenses (Bills, Browns, and Lions).

Even though Jackson is 0-3 at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs don't have the firepower to keep up with the Ravens' offense at this point in the season.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

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