Fantasy Faceoff: Paul Goldschmidt vs. Bryce Harper
Angels OF Mike Trout remains the obvious No. 1 overall pick in the majority of fantasy drafts - but there is an ongoing debate as to whether Nationals OF Bryce Harper or Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt makes the better No. 2.
Most ADPs currently give Goldschmidt a slight edge. Here is a look at their stats from 2015 (bold indicates league leader):
| Name | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 118 | 172 | 42 | 99 | 6 | .330 | .460 | .649 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 103 | 182 | 33 | 110 | 21 | .321 | .435 | .570 |
The Case for Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt has finished second in MVP voting in two of the past three seasons. He has three consecutive seasons with a .300 average and an OPS above .900. At 28 years old, he is in the prime of his career. What gives Goldschmidt an added dimension is his baserunning - he has averaged 16 stolen bases over the past four seasons.
According to park factors, Chase Field, home of the Diamondbacks, ranked as the eighth-best hitters' ballpark in 2015. With A.J. Pollock hitting in the leadoff spot, Goldschmidt could very well top his career high of 125 RBIs. The sure-fire MVP candidate has proven enough in the past three seasons to merit second overall pick status.
The Case for Bryce Harper
Harper was the NL MVP a season ago in a breakout year. He's already played four seasons in the majors, yet he's still just 23. The upside and talent Harper possesses is unmatched. Heading into the 2010 draft, he was touted as the best prospect since Alex Rodriguez. His swing is among the best in the game.
Harper also has a much better supporting cast in 2016. Ben Revere and Anthony Rendon are great table setters, and while Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy and Jayson Werth don't offer the best protection in the league, they're superior to the players Goldschmidt has hitting behind him.
Upside vs. Consistency
Although their service time is close (4.059 seasons for Goldschmidt compared to 3.159 for Harper), Goldschmidt has posted three seasons of value as a first round pick in fantasy, despite only playing 109 games in 2014. At 28, it's highly unlikely Goldschmidt regresses after setting career-highs in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and SB a season ago.
Harper posted decent numbers in his first three seasons in the show, but nowhere near the type of numbers he posted a season ago. This makes taking him second overall much riskier. However, he does have the ability to hit 50 home runs, whereas Goldschmidt's ceiling is around 40.
Verdict
Harper led the NL in six major offensive categories last year, but it's the one he finished second in - walks - that stands out the most. This proves he's becoming an extremely intelligent hitter at an age where his physical abilities are at their peak. If anyone in baseball has the ability to put up Barry Bonds-like numbers, it's Harper, and it could be as early as 2016.