Ranking the NFL's worst-to-first candidates in 2021

A last-place team in the NFL has bounced back and won its division the next year in five of the last six seasons.

As we turn our attention to the upcoming campaign, here's every last-place club from 2020 ranked according to that team's chances of winning its division in 2021.

8. Detroit Lions

2020 record: 5-11

Notable moves

It's hard to imagine the Lions winning the NFC North for several reasons.

Detroit is going through a big rebuild after hiring first-year head coach Dan Campbell and trading Matthew Stafford, its all-time passing leader, to the Los Angeles Rams for Jared Goff. The jury is still out on Goff, who will be working with one of the league's worst receiving corps. At least the Lions' offensive line looks solid, and running back D'Andre Swift could break out in his second season.

The team's defense is also concerning. The unit allowed a league-worst 32.4 points per game in 2020, and PFF ranked it dead last. Granted, Detroit addressed its defense during the draft, and an extra year of experience should help the development of some young defenders, such as cornerback Jeff Okudah. However, there isn't enough talent for the Lions to match up against top opponents yet.

This is a long-term project in Detroit. Other NFC North clubs, like the Minnesota Vikings and especially the Green Bay Packers, field better rosters and are steps ahead of the Lions.

7. New York Jets

2020 record: 2-14

Notable moves

The Jets got their man in first-year coach Robert Saleh, and drafting Wilson second overall was also the right decision. But both the quarterback and head coach face big challenges. Wilson needs to fix an offense that ranked last in 2020 scoring, while Salah, a former defensive coordinator, needs to improve a struggling unit.

New York added interesting weapons during the offseason. Davis is an upgrade at receiver coming off a breakout year, and a deep receiving corps still features Moore, Cole, Jamison Crowder, and Denzel Mims, who battled injuries as a rookie last year and could bounce back. And although the offensive line is still a work in progress, Vera-Tucker and Moses should help Wilson and his running game right away.

Defensively, Lawson's season-ending injury leaves a hole for the Jets, who spent big money on the star edge rusher. The linebacker group will look different with C.J. Mosley back after he opted out last season, along with rookie Jamien Sherwood stepping in for the injured Davis during the first half of the season. The secondary, led by safety Marcus Maye, lacks overall depth and star power at corner.

New York enters the season as the AFC East's worst team on paper. If Wilson takes the NFL by storm and the club's latest signings pay off, the Jets could make a surprising move up from last place. Still, New York likely doesn't have a legit shot of going from worst to first in a division with the Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, and Buffalo Bills one year after winning just two games.

6. Cincinnati Bengals

2020 record: 4-11-1

Notable moves

The clock is ticking for coach Zac Taylor, who's 6-25-1 over two seasons with the Bengals. Cincinnati did improve last year in comparison to 2019, and the team spent during free agency for the second straight year. But there are still too many unanswered questions on the roster.

How will Joe Burrow look after tearing his ACL and MCL last November? He should benefit from a strong receiving corps in Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins, but the second-year passer struggled during camp despite saying he feels he's recovered physically.

Additionally, although Joe Mixon seems poised for a bounce-back campaign after an injury-plagued season, the offensive line remains a liability in both pass- and run-blocking. That could change if Carman, Reiff, and 2019 first-round left tackle Jonah Williams step up.

Cincinnati also needs to fix a defense that recorded a league-low 17 sacks in 2020. That's why the club handed a big contract to Hendrickson after he broke out with 13.5 sacks for the New Orleans Saints last year. But Cincy's front seven still needs more at linebacker. And while there's plenty of depth at cornerback, it won't be easy to find a new No. 1 to replace William Jackson.

If the Bengals can stay healthy, they should be able to meet expectations and avoid underperforming. But unless Burrow takes a huge leap during his sophomore campaign, Cincinnati is highly unlikely to go from worst to first in a division featuring three playoff-caliber teams in the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, and Cleveland Browns.

5. Atlanta Falcons

2020 record: 4-12

Notable moves

Atlanta finished last in the NFC South for the first time since quarterback Matt Ryan arrived in 2008, but expect the team to rebound.

Although the Falcons hired a new head coach in Arthur Smith and traded away Julio Jones, the club kept Ryan to avoid a full rebuild. The signal-caller's prime may be behind him, but his 4,581 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2020 show there's something left in his tank.

Atlanta's pass-catching corps is solid despite Jones' departure, as Calvin Ridley is more than ready to be the No. 1 guy, and Pitts is the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history. But Ryan might need to throw over 600 times again; Davis isn't a proven three-down back, so Atlanta's rushing offense could be weak. There's also uncertainty along the Falcons' offensive line after it lost James Carpenter and Alex Mack. There are young linemen available, but they may not be ready to step into starting roles.

On the other side of the ball, only tackle Grady Jarrett and linebacker Deion Jones stand out, as most of Atlanta's defenders aren't proven. A.J. Terrell, entering his second year after being drafted 16th overall, could help turn things around in the secondary alongside Grant.

Their usual combination of offensive firepower and defensive speed will fuel the Falcons, and they could produce a surprising season if the team finds ways to win close games - Atlanta was 2-8 in one-score contests last year.

The Falcons take a big hit on this list for being in a division with two teams that won 11-plus games in 2020. It'll be tough to beat the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Saints, who should still be competitive despite Drew Brees retiring.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

2020 record: 1-15

Notable moves

All eyes will be on the Jaguars in 2021 for Lawrence's and coach Urban Meyer's NFL debut. Things got off to a rough start for this offense with Etienne's season-ending injury, but Lawrence's cast still includes explosive receivers and a running back room with Hyde and James Robinson, who topped 1,000 yards in 2020. However, the offensive line - ranked 19th and 25th in pass- and run-blocking by PFF, respectively - has plenty of room for growth.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville's defense is coming off a disappointing campaign, but it could bounce back. The defensive line will have new contributors Brown and Robertson-Harris, while the pass rush should improve with K'Lavon Chaisson entering his second year and Josh Allen returning from injury. Plus, cornerback CJ Henderson returns after his injury-plagued rookie season and the secondary gets two new starters in Griffin and Jenkins.

Though the Jaguars might need a few years to reach their full potential, they could already benefit from an unstable AFC South. If the Indianapolis Colts' quarterback issues continue, the Tennessee Titans will likely be Jacksonville's biggest challenge. Tennessee might not be as well-rounded as other AFC contenders, but it's clearly a step ahead of Jacksonville, which ranked last in the division in each of the last three seasons.

3. Denver Broncos

2020 record: 5-11

Notable moves

Thanks to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Broncos face the same problem as the Falcons: They play in the same division as the best team in their conference. But Denver has a well-rounded roster that could be very competitive with the right quarterback.

So is Bridgewater the right guy? The 28-year-old won Denver's quarterback battle over Drew Lock, earning what could be his last chance as a starter. Bridgewater has been accurate, completing 68.8% of his passes since 2019, but he'll need to improve his touchdown production. Denver has an interesting duo of running backs in Melvin Gordon and Williams, and a deep pass-catching corps featuring Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and Noah Fant. This group did struggle with drops in 2020, but the return of Sutton (who made only one appearance last year) and another year of experience for Jeudy should help.

If the offense figures things out, the defense will likely get the job done. The Broncos had the NFL's seventh-best defense last year, according to PFF - the highest-ranked unit among the teams on this list. And it's now welcoming the return of linebacker Von Miller (who missed 2020 with an injury) and the arrivals of Fuller, Darby, and Surtain.

Denver did a solid job of upgrading its roster this offseason. As unrealistic as it is to imagine the Broncos competing against the Chiefs for the AFC West's top spot, Denver's only a couple of pieces away from becoming a real threat.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

2020 record: 4-11-1

Notable moves

Not every team with as many holes as the Eagles can dream about winning the division. But Philadelphia, which was devasted by injuries last year, will have a healthier roster and a new quarterback under center. Plus, the Eagles play in the NFC East - the easiest division in which to go from worst to first - and they have the easiest schedule in the league (based on last year's records).

The Eagles will go as far as second-year passer Jalen Hurts can lead them. As a rookie in 2020, he made four starts as Carson Wentz's replacement and went 1-3, but he did show promise. The Eagles should also have a comparatively healthy offensive line after tackles Andre Dillard, Lane Johnson, and Jason Peters, along with guards Isaac Seumalo and Brandon Brooks, missed a whopping 56 games combined last season. Finally, although Philadelphia's receiving corps remains unproven, the addition of first-rounder Smith and another year of development for Jalen Reagor should help.

Led by a solid front four, Philadelphia also bolstered its struggling linebacker corps and secondary in the offseason. Wilson is still a liability as a tackler, but his coverage skills fill a need. Harris, who led the NFL in interceptions in 2019, is an instant upgrade at safety. Questions remain at cornerback, however, after Avonte Maddox struggled while playing outside corner last year and Darius Slay underperformed.

The Eagles aren't the best NFC East team on paper. But this division turned out to be up for grabs last year, and the Washington Football Team, Dallas Cowboys, and New York Giants don't look like they'll be real juggernauts this year. It seems like anything can happen.

1. San Francisco 49ers

2020 record: 6-10

Notable moves

There's a reason why the 49ers were the best team in the NFC and almost won the Super Bowl two seasons ago. They can hurt opponents in many different ways, featuring a dynamic running game, an explosive passing attack, and a solid defense. San Francisco wouldn't even be on this list if an absurd amount of injuries hadn't destroyed its 2020 campaign.

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, tight end George Kittle, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, running back Raheem Mostert, defensive end Nick Bosa, linebacker Dee Ford, and cornerback Richard Sherman each missed at least eight games, with four of them being sidelined for a minimum of 10.

Garoppolo, Kittle, Samuel, and Mostert are expected to be healthy, which means coach Kyle Shanahan will have all of his offensive weapons available. Plus, an already solid offensive line welcomes a six-time Pro Bowler in Mack.

San Francisco is also one of just two teams on this list that had a top-10 defense last year, according to PFF. The 49ers boast a premier front seven, and Bosa's return should make the pass rush effective again. The secondary is the team's weakest unit, but it's still an above-average group. Cornerback Jason Verrett stood out last season, playing at least 13 games only for the second time in his career. It's crucial for the 49ers that Verrett mostly stays on the field, since they aren't deep at corner after Sherman's exit.

San Francisco enters 2021 with a roster almost as good as the one it had in 2019. Granted, the NFC West is arguably football's best division. But the 49ers own a good recent record against divisional opponents, including three of their six wins in 2020. The Niners are 8-4 versus the Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, and Los Angeles Rams since 2019.