Trade grades: Evaluating 49ers' blockbuster move for McCaffrey

Who says the NFL trade deadline can't be exciting?

The San Francisco 49ers made a major splash Thursday night, acquiring Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers in exchange for a package of picks that includes second-, third-, and fourth-round selections in the 2023 draft.

The rare in-season stunner gives McCaffrey the distinct pleasure of leaving a disaster of an organization in Carolina for a much more favorable situation back in the Bay Area, where he starred at Stanford during his collegiate career.

As with most deadline deals, the 49ers and Panthers are heading in two opposite directions. But the trade itself doesn't necessarily have a winner and a loser.

49ers

Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch aren't messing around.

Adding a do-it-all playmaker of this caliber to a skill group that already features the likes of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, among others, has the potential to make this offense an absolute nightmare to defend, no matter the quarterback.

Shanahan, much like his father, has always been known for his ability to manufacture great rushing attacks - in many cases, by way of scheme creativity alone. The long list of no-name runners who have become big-time producers in his wide-zone offense speaks for itself. McCaffrey, far and away the most talented back Shanahan has coached, is a good bet to not only thrive as a ball carrier in that system but maximize it in a way that few others have.

The passing game is what has always made McCaffrey truly special, though. In 2019, his second straight year with 100-plus receptions, he became only the third running back in NFL history to record over 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in a single season. And for as much time as we justifiably spend talking about the Shanahan rushing attack, the 49ers coach is just as creative when it comes to scheming up space for pass-catchers, regardless of position, and maximizing yards after the catch. His newest weapon will line up all over the field and get the ball in ways we've yet to see from a running back in this system.

The concern here is obvious - several injury issues limited McCaffrey to a combined 10 games in 2020 and 2021. At such a physically demanding position, this naturally leads to questions about whether he's breaking down, but we're not here to play doctor. The reality is that injuries are part of the game, and much of it comes down to poor luck. Plus, he's still only 26. Even if the team needs to scale back his workload for the sake of longevity, a stacked 49ers offense is in a far better position to do so than, say, the Panthers, who had no choice but to run their best player into the ground.

McCaffrey's contract is another factor to consider here, but Carolina paying such a big portion through a signing bonus means that, beyond this year, the 49ers effectively inherit a three-year deal worth roughly $12 million per season. That puts San Francisco's commitment in line with what teams owe Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon, who are just outside the NFL's top five highest-paid running backs. And with few-to-no guarantees remaining, a restructured deal with even more team-friendly cap numbers in the short term could be on the table.

If you're someone who doesn't value running backs, loves hoarding draft picks, or perhaps both, you probably see this as a steep price for the 49ers to pay. And it is - mid-round picks carry a ton of value in the NFL. But given the slim odds that those assets yield anything close to the value McCaffrey could provide in Shanahan's offense (perhaps more than any player at the position league-wide), it's a worthwhile gamble. Especially considering the 49ers get to start enjoying that value right now.

As odd as it may seem for a 3-3 team with losses to the Bears, Broncos, and Falcons to be going all-in with a midseason trade for a star running back, respectfully, have you seen the rest of the NFC? Before injuries hit over the last few weeks, the 49ers' defense was playing like the 2000 Ravens. If that unit can get healthy, and McCaffrey's presence can have the intended impact on the other side of the ball, there's no reason this team can't make a run - multiple, even.

And rings are far more fun than picks.

Grade: A-

Panthers

This move was likely a tough one for both the Panthers and their fans. Frustrating as the last two years have been with McCaffrey battling injuries, he was still the face of that franchise. And at his young age, even for a running back, it's not like he couldn't theoretically have been part of the rebuild.

It's easy to see the logic, though. The rather affordable contract that the 49ers are taking on isn't quite the one Carolina was stuck with. As constructed, McCaffrey was set for cap hits of $19.5 million, $19.5 million, and $15.4 million in each of the next three years when accounting for signing-bonus prorations.

That's a lot of cap dollars to commit to a running back who, as talented as he may be, spent a ton of time on the sidelines over the last two seasons. And although trading him away leaves Carolina with over $18 million in dead money in 2023, biting that bullet next year rather than bringing him back and likely pushing money into the future to address looming cap issues just wouldn't have been good business. All things considered, the Panthers got assets for a superstar running back while they still could, and that was the right move.

Unfortunately, the team pretty transparently leaking that the price tag would be "multiple first-round picks" almost certainly created some unrealistic expectations for a return. Carolina was never going to get one first-round pick for McCaffrey, let alone two. But that doesn't mean the franchise didn't still do fairly well.

Given his limited availability since a historic 2019 campaign, few would have been surprised if a lone second-round pick was all the Panthers could get. Also picking up third- and fourth-rounders in the upcoming draft helps recoup some of the value lost in this year's move up for Matt Corral, giving Carolina six total selections in the first four rounds. That's a solid number of lottery tickets for an organization that needs them in the worst way.

And there may be more to come - just don't count on a full-scale fire sale.

As much as rival teams and their fans would happily offer top picks for Brian Burns and D.J. Moore, the return for the two young stars, in particular, would have to be astronomical for the Panthers to even consider a deal. Keeping such foundational pieces in place is preferable to the risk that comes with shipping them out for draft picks. Plus, those are the kinds of players that can help make the job more attractive to prospective head coaching candidates.

Calls about anyone else, though? Carolina should be all ears. Getting a decent return for McCaffrey was just the first, painful step toward a measured rebuild.

Grade: B

(Cap source: Over the Cap)