10 potential bargains NFL teams should target in free agency
If there's one lesson that free agency has taught us, it's that spending big doesn't always mean spending smartly. More often than not, the best moves don't have the biggest price tags attached to them. While the superstars fetching lucrative deals will steal the headlines, the best signings are usually from front offices finding undervalued gems who can provide similar production for a fraction of the cost.
Here are the 10 players that have the potential to be huge bargains this free agency:
Parris Campbell, WR, Colts
There'll be a lot of value in the middle portions of what is an unusual wide receiver market that's lacking star power. But that's where savvy front offices might be able to get a steal on pass-catchers like Campbell.
Let's not sugarcoat it, though. There's a lot of risk in investing in Campbell. He was sidelined for the majority of his first three seasons before finally playing a full campaign in 2022. However, his injury track history should only help make him a potential bargain if teams are worried about his durability. The soon-to-be 26-year-old may have turned a corner in his career after catching 63 passes for 623 yards in 2022 while playing 85% of the Colts' snaps. His athleticism was also on full display, with just over 43% of his yardage coming after the catch last season, per PFR. While his injury history has been questionable, Campbell's talent has never been deniable.
Best fits: Bears, Giants, Chargers
Cameron Sutton, CB, Steelers
However much Sutton ends up collecting in free agency will likely still be a discount considering the body of work he produced last season. Sutton not only enjoyed the best year of his career, but he also arguably played like a top-10 cornerback. He'll likely end up with a good chunk of dough in free agency, but it's hard to believe he'll make the kind of money that his stats reflect.
Here's how Sutton fared in 2022 (min. 60 targets), per PFR:
Category | NFL Rank | |
---|---|---|
Completion % Allowed | 47.9 | 3rd |
Yards per Target | 5.3 | T9th |
Passer Rating Allowed | 65.3 | 8th |
While Sutton put himself on the map as an outside corner in 2022, he's also capable of shifting to the slot, which he's done frequently in the past for the Steelers. Sutton has quietly been a key piece of Pittsburgh's secondary for six seasons now, and if his advanced metrics continue to get ignored on the open market, he could very well end up being the best bang for your buck at the cornerback position.
Best fits: Raiders, Vikings, Rams
Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks
It's hard enough being a running back who wants to get paid in the year 2023. It's even harder for backs to get their worth when they have multiple red flags. Add in the context that this year's running back free-agent class is very deep, and it's easy to see that there won't be enough money to go around for everyone. But all that means is there could be a handful of low-risk, high-reward bets at the position, perhaps none with a higher ceiling than Penny.
It's been a tough go for Penny, who saw his season end prematurely due to a broken fibula. No stranger to injuries, perhaps Penny's dreams of being a bell-cow back are over. But if there's anyone who's made the most of limited opportunities, it's the Seahawks running back. Despite logging just 176 carries over the last two seasons, Penny has ripped off 13 runs of 25-plus yards, second most in the NFL during that span. If he can stay on the field, Penny has displayed enough reason to believe that he can still be an important part of any NFL backfield.
Best fits: Browns, Broncos, Chargers
Arden Key, LB, Jaguars
Key found his footing over the last two seasons as a situational pass-rusher during stops with the 49ers and Jaguars. His production doesn't jump off the page, but there's a lot of promise beneath the surface. Take last year for example, Key posted 4.5 sacks, 15 quarterback hits, and 20 pressures with Jacksonville. Nothing earth-shattering, but the 26-year-old did all this while seeing the field on just over 41% of the Jaguars' defensive snaps. That puts him in rare territory.
Players who played 475 or fewer snaps and recorded 20-plus pressures in 2022, per PFR:
Name | Defensive Snaps Played | Pressures |
---|---|---|
Arden Key | 475 | 20 |
Brandon Graham | 474 | 21 |
Von Miller | 450 | 27 |
Justin Houston | 397 | 25 |
Josh Uche | 374 | 25 |
Dante Fowler | 343 | 21 |
It's no longer enough to have just one or even two strong pass-rushers to be an elite defense in today's pass-happy NFL. While guys like Key may never be full-time starters, he can provide incredible value as a situational pass-rusher. What's even more appealing is that teams shouldn't have to break the bank or tie down large amounts of guaranteed money to land him.
Best fits: Broncos, 49ers, Falcons
Taylor Rapp, S, Rams
It's shaping up to be a good free-agent safety class with a lot of different skill sets available for buyers. The top free-agent safety is arguably C.J. Gardner-Johnson thanks to his versatility and ball skills. But what if you could get a similar, versatile defensive back like Gardner-Johnson for a lesser cost? That might be possible with Rapp, who was graded higher than the Eagles safety by PFF this season.
Though Rapp may not be a pure ballhawk like other elite safeties, nine interceptions in four years while playing a multitude of roles isn't something to overlook. Instead, his trump card since coming into the league has been his flexibility across the formation. Take a look below at his snaps played by position last season, according to PFF. A force against the run and also a weapon in coverage, Rapp might be the real jack-of-all-trades safety to target.
Position | Snaps |
---|---|
In the box | 257 |
Slot CB | 168 |
Wide CB | 7 |
Free safety | 524 |
Best fits: Cowboys, Lions, Panthers
Julian Love, S, Giants
Looking for another potential bargain at safety? Point your direction toward Love, who quietly had a breakout year for the Giants in 2022. The 24-year-old racked up 124 tackles, six tackles for a loss, and two interceptions. Just how impressive was Love last season? No other safety was able to match that exact stat line.
Like Rapp, Love also comes equipped with an abundance of versatility. According to PFF, he logged 296 snaps in the box, 170 at slot corner, and 578 at free safety last season. With a price tag that should come in lower than Rapp and Gardner-Johnson, Love has the potential to be a home-run addition. If utilized correctly, the best could still be yet to come for the talented safety.
Best fits: Jets, Cowboys, Bills
Justin Houston, DE, Ravens
Houston is going on his age-34 season, though no one would know watching him play. The veteran pass-rusher is coming off his best season since 2019 after registering 9.5 sacks with the Ravens last season. While his days of starting are likely in the past, Houston has a strong case for being one of the league's most efficient pass-rushers considering his part-time role. The four-time Pro Bowler was one of just two players to record at least nine sacks while playing 400 or fewer snaps, joining the Patriots' Josh Uche, who's almost a decade younger than him.
Even with his production, Houston should still come at a fraction of the cost of other younger pass-rushers on the market. He's played on one-year deals in each of the past two seasons, with last year's contract worth a measly $3.5 million. It's reasonable to expect he'll earn a similar figure considering his age and part-time duties, which makes the veteran one of the biggest potential gems of the offseason.
Best fits: Ravens, Browns, Packers
Charles Omenihu, DL, 49ers
Omenihu was the best 49ers pass-rusher not named Nick Bosa in 2022. While he managed to only produce 4.5 sacks, he still consistently disrupted the pocket as he ranked second on the team in quarterback hits (16) and pressures (21), per PFR. Despite only starting three games and playing just over 50% of the 49ers' snaps, Omenihu's seven games with multiple pressures matched the production of NFL stars such as Chandler Jones, Justin Houston, and Frank Clark.
Though some may assume Omenihu's production was the byproduct of Bosa's presence and a stout 49ers defense, it's not like he hasn't replicated this output before. The 25-year-old also recorded 20-plus pressures in 2020 as a member of the Texans.
Best fits: Cardinals, Falcons, Bears
Germaine Pratt, LB, Bengals
The 2023 linebacker market is headlined by the likes of Tremaine Edmunds and Lavonte David. However, there are quite a bunch of intriguing characters in the position's secondary acts, including Pratt. The Bengals linebacker isn't as well-rounded as his peers, which might deflate his market, but his superb play in coverage might be one of the NFL's biggest secrets. Pratt's work in 2022 consistently had him among the league's best linebackers, according to PFR's metrics (min. 40 targets).
Category | LB Rank | |
---|---|---|
Passer rating allowed | 62.1 | 1st |
Completion percentage allowed | 62.5% | 3rd |
Yards per completion | 7.8 | 10th |
Yards per target | 4.9 | T3rd |
Pratt is another case of exceptional value if put in the right environment. He may have shortcomings in certain areas, but if he's placed in a position that doesn't require him to play above his worth and highlights his natural ability in coverage, he can be a gigantic asset for any defense.
Best fits: Bengals, Steelers, Giants
Jermaine Eluemunor, OT, Raiders
Eluemunor is a relatively unknown name, but his play last season was worthy of propelling him into the limelight. For the first time in his career, he started every game as the Raiders' full-time right tackle, and he performed better than anyone could've predicted.
The 28-year-old now joins a crowded right tackle market. He'll likely receive a smaller contract than his positional peers, which really shouldn't be the case. Out of all the potential free-agent right tackles, Eluemunor proved to be the best pass-protector in 2022, according to Sports Info Solutions. That'll be music to the ears of his future employer as they'll likely pick up a solid tackle on a bargain deal while other executives latch themselves onto bigger names.
Name | Pass Blocking Snaps | Sacks Allowed |
---|---|---|
Jermaine Eluemunor | 549 | 3 |
Kaleb McGary | 488 | 5 |
George Fant | 358 | 5 |
Mike McGlinchey | 528 | 7 |
Best fits: Patriots, Bengals, Titans