NFL Playoff Picture - Week 13: Postseason seeds, projected draft order

NFL Playoff Picture is a weekly look at the teams jockeying to secure their shot to make it to Super Bowl LVIII.

AFC

The race for the AFC's No. 1 seed is wide-open. With the Kansas City Chiefs' loss to the Green Bay Packers, the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens finished Sunday tied with the conference's best record. Miami, which blew out the Washington Commanders in Week 13, has the edge over Baltimore due to its win percentage in conference games. However, the Jacksonville Jaguars, winners of seven of their last eight games, can leapfrog the Dolphins and Ravens in the playoff race if they beat the Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals on Monday.

Coming up in December are huge AFC matchups and a tough stretch for the Ravens, who play the Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, and Dolphins between Weeks 15-17.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns kept their playoff spots in the wild-card race despite losing in Week 13. However, injuries at quarterback will be an issue. With Deshaun Watson (shoulder) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion) unavailable, the Browns started veteran Joe Flacco in Sunday's defeat to the Los Angeles Rams. Meanwhile, the Steelers saw Kenny Pickett go down with an ankle injury that will reportedly sideline him for multiple weeks.

Somehow, the Indianapolis Colts are the AFC's No. 7 seed after edging the Tennessee Titans on the road in overtime. First-year head coach Shane Steichen and his staff have done a tremendous job at getting the most out of a team missing some key players. First-round quarterback Anthony Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in October and running back Jonathan Taylor recently hurt his thumb, which will sideline him for at least two weeks.

In the hunt

The Houston Texans bounced back from their Week 12 loss with a big win over the Denver Broncos, which keeps DeMeco Ryans' outfit in the hunt as the No. 8 seed. It's been a remarkable year for the Texans, who had won seven combined in 2021 and 2022. C.J. Stroud and Co. will have to continue their impressive campaign without standout rookie receiver Tank Dell, who fractured his fibula, but having the seventh-weakest remaining schedule helps. Indianapolis currently owns the tiebreaker after beating Houston in September, but the two division rivals will meet again in Week 18.

Despite not currently being one of the top seven seeds, the Texans have a 78% chance of making the playoffs, according to The New York Times. They are followed by the Colts (67%), Browns (60%), and Steelers (54%) in the wild-card race. Denver's chances dropped to 21% after Week 13.

NFC

The Philadelphia Eagles are still the NFC's No. 1 team but have no margin for error after losing 42-19 to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Philadelphia will now visit the red-hot Dallas Cowboys who have scored 40-plus points in four of their last six games. The Eagles beat the Cowboys earlier this season.

The Detroit Lions held on for a victory over the New Orleans Saints this week. San Francisco has the edge over Detroit in the playoff race due to owning a better record in conference games.

The Atlanta Falcons are the only division leaders not above .500 right now. Despite the offensive struggles, Atlanta has won two straight - most recently a 13-8 victory over the New York Jets. The Falcons have three divisional matchups and the easiest strength of schedule left this season, so they should feel good about their chances.

Next in the NFC wild-card race are two teams trending in opposite directions. The Minnesota Vikings had a bye in Week 13 but are coming off back-to-back losses. It's unclear if Joshua Dobbs will remain Minnesota's starting quarterback, but at least the team is welcoming back All-Pro receiver Justin Jefferson. Finally, the Packers extended their winning streak to three games with Sunday's triumph over the Chiefs. Keep in mind that Green Bay doesn't have any opponent currently with a winning record left on its schedule.

In the hunt

The Packers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Los Angeles Rams after their meeting earlier this campaign. Los Angeles is trending upward, though, as Sean McVay's outfit has won its last three contests.

The Seattle Seahawks lost both matchups with the Rams this season. To make things worse, Seattle, loser of three straight, will face the 49ers and Eagles next.

Projected NFL draft order