NFL Week 1 betting primer: Spread movement, insights, and marquee matchups

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

Week 1 of the NFL season is here! After a lengthy offseason, football fans will get their fix with a full lineup of games to kick off the new year.

Every team - and fan base - enters the campaign with a new sense of hope. While the first contest doesn't make or break a team's chances, it can provide a glimpse of what's to come, especially for the franchises that made big offseason moves or have a rookie quarterback.

Thursday night's opening matchup between the Chiefs and Ravens set the stage for a week full of intriguing games. Each week, we'll preview the slate from a high level, discuss opening line changes, present betting insights from both theScore Bet and ESPN Bet sportsbooks, and provide color on marquee matchups.

Let the season begin!

Spread analysis

Week 1 of NFL betting is much different than the rest of the season because these spreads have been up for months. Opening-week lines were first available in May on theScore Bet and ESPN Bet, and by now, they've been bet into place and are extremely efficient.

Even though a lot has changed since May, most spreads have stayed relatively close to their opening number. The spreads for the Texans, Seahawks, and Browns have seen the most movement at 1.5 points.

Of the 16 games, only two feature a road favorite - the Texans and Vikings.

Marquee matchups

Packers vs. Eagles (PHI -3, o/u 48.5)

The Eagles start their year against the Packers for a rare Friday night game from Sao Paulo, Brazil, the NFL's first visit to South America. Opening the season south of the equator is less than ideal for both teams, but oddsmakers still give Philadelphia a substantial edge in the neutral-site contest. The spread would be closer to Eagles -4.5 if this game were played at Lincoln Financial Field, which seems high based on how the Packers are perceived going into this year after last season's success.

Player to watch

After spending six seasons with the Giants, Saquon Barkley bolted for a division rival. He joined the Eagles on a quest to win a championship and play alongside more talent than he ever has.

Barkley's health has been a concern, but he won't have as large of a workload on a stacked Eagles offense. Plus, the Pennsylvania native is running behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines. Barkley's rushing yards prop for the season opener is 69.5, and his receiving yards prop is 15.5. He's -115 to score a touchdown.

Betting insights

Spread: 62% of wagers and 55% of the handle (money wagered) are on the Eagles.
Moneyline: 76% of the wagers and 67% of the handle is on the Eagles.
Total: 55% of the wagers and 51% of the handle is on the over.

Bears vs. Titans (CHI -4, o/u 44.5)

This game would have been way down on last year's watchability rankings. But the buzz Caleb Williams has brought to the Bears has made this Week 1 game must-see TV.

While the betting market considers the Titans a below-average team (they're +425 to make the playoffs), asking Williams to win by more than a field goal in his NFL debut is substantial. The spread has moved in Tennessee's direction since it opened, but -4 appears to be the number it'll be at kickoff.

Player to watch

The NFL world will be glued to Williams as one of the most highly touted prospects in recent memory makes his debut. Williams' odds for over 249.5 passing yards are currently even money, and he's -115 to throw for two or more touchdowns. Oddsmakers also expect Williams to pick up some yardage on the ground. He's even money to rush for 20 or more yards.

Betting insights

Spread: 61% of wagers and 51% of the handle are on the Bears.
Moneyline: 82% of the wagers and 73% of the handle is on the Bears.
Total: 44% of the wagers and 52% of the handle is on the over.

Lions vs. Rams (DET -3.5, o/u 50.5)

The Lions host the Rams on Sunday night in a game with a 50.5 total, the highest of the Week 1 slate. This is a rematch from last year's wild-card round, which the Lions won.

Detroit is coming off its first division crown since 1993, and the club's 12 wins from last year have bettors expecting an encore performance. The Lions are the second-most bet-on team to win the Super Bowl at +1000 (the fourth shortest odds) behind the Chiefs.

Meanwhile, the Rams were one of the league's biggest surprises last year. They made the playoffs with a 10-7 record following a disappointing 5-12 2022 campaign, which had head coach Sean McVay contemplate retirement.

Player to watch

Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford face their former teams to open the 2024 campaign. Stafford returned to Detroit for a wild-card game last season, the first time he played there since being traded to the Rams.

Los Angeles shipped Goff to Detroit in exchange for Stafford because it believed it needed an upgrade at quarterback. Since then, Goff has resurrected the Lions and his career. Stafford's and Goff's passing yards props are set at 274.5.

Betting insights

Spread: 69% of wagers and 57% of the handle (money wagered) are on the Lions.
Moneyline: 90% of the wagers and 90% of the handle is on the Lions.
Total: 61% of the wagers and 62% of the handle is on the over.

49ers vs. Jets (SF -4, o/u 43.5)

The Jets open the season on Monday Night Football for the second straight year. While they won last campaign's contest against the Bills, Jets fans will only remember it as the game in which they lost Aaron Rodgers for the season to an Achilles tear.

Hope is high again for the Jets, who have the longest playoff drought in the NFL at 13 seasons. Rodgers is healthy, and New York has elite offensive weapons and a defense that should remain one of the league's best.

However, the Jets have a tough opening game on the road against the defending NFC champs. The 49ers are a 4-point favorite and recently ended contract negotiations with two key pieces on their offense - Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams. San Francisco appears poised to return to the Super Bowl.

There's a chance this is a championship preview. The Super Bowl matchup of Jets versus 49ers pays +3500 for an implied probability of 2.8%.

Player to watch

This one's obvious. Rodgers returns from an Achilles injury on Monday Night Football, the forum where his injury occurred last season. The 40-year-old's arm talent and ability to read defenses better than anyone shouldn't disappear with age. However, his mobility might not be what NFL fans are accustomed to.

Defensive end Leonard Floyd's tackle led to Rodgers' Achilles bursting. He played for the Bills last season but now suits up for the 49ers. Luckily for Rodgers, the Jets bolstered their offensive line to ensure he has more protection. New York will also rely on its running game led by Breece Hall. Rodgers has a passing yards prop of 224 and a rushing yards prop of 2.5.

Betting insights

Spread: 52% of wagers and 24% of the handle are on the 49ers.
Moneyline: 89% of the wagers and 81% of the handle is on the 49ers.
Total: 49% of the wagers and 19% of the handle is on the over.

5 most lopsided betting splits

5. 89% of bets, 88% of the handle on Texans (-155) moneyline

4. 90% of bets, 80% of the handle on Panthers (+170) moneyline

3. 90% of bets, 90% of the handle on Lions (-215) moneyline

2. 92% of bets, 89% of the handle on Bills (-290) moneyline

1. 93% of bets, 95% of the handle on Dolphins (-170) moneyline