Week 5 betting primer: News, notes, insights for Sunday's slate

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

Through four weeks of the NFL campaign, we have a large enough sample size that we don't need to rely on preseason assumptions to determine which side of the spread we like.

We now have a good idea of which teams will be playoff contenders and which are already looking toward the draft.

With that in mind, let's look at Sunday's slate, including the news, notes, and betting insights that may help you decide who to bet.

Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET (London game)

• Jets-Vikings is the first London game of the season.
• The undefeated Vikings are a perfect 4-0 ATS. The Jets are 2-2 ATS.
• This spread suggests the Vikings would be roughly 4.5-point favorites if the game were played in Minnesota.
• The Vikings are 3-0 in London, winning most recently in 2022.
• The Jets are 0-1 when in the U.K., losing to the Falcons in 2021.
• Sam Darnold will face off against the team that drafted him third overall in 2018. His passing yards prop is 219.5, but the Jets have the NFL's second-best passing defense.
• Darnold is the fifth-leading favorite to win MVP, and Vikings sideline boss Kevin O'Connell is the Coach of the Year favorite.

Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate

• The surprise NFC East-leading Commanders are 3-1 straight up and 3-1 ATS.
• The Browns are 1-3 both straight up and ATS.
• Washington has scored 80 combined points in its last two games. Its team total is set at 23.5. Cleveland has scored 66 points all season.
• Jayden Daniels is the odds-on favorite (-150) to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. His passing yards prop against the Browns is 212.5, a total he's soared past the last three weeks.

• The Jaguars are the NFL's only winless team.
• Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor are questionable for the game.
• Backup Joe Flacco came in for the Colts in Week 4, throwing for 168 yards on 16 completions and two touchdowns.
• This game features two of the league's worst defenses. The Colts are allowing the most yards per game (422.5) but are managing to keep points off the board (T14 in points allowed), while the Jaguars allow the third-most yards per game (391.0).

• This could be a preview of the AFC Championship Game. The Bills are the third-highest favorite to win the conference, while the Texans are the fourth.
• Despite their 3-1 record, the Texans are one of two teams yet to cover a spread this season.
• The Bills beat up on the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Jaguars to open their season before the Ravens annihilated them by 25 points on Sunday Night Football.
• Buffalo is 23-11 following a loss in the Josh Allen era. It's the second-best mark during that span, behind only the Chiefs.

• This AFC East matchup features the week's lowest total. These are the two lowest-scoring offenses in the league. Miami has posted 45 points in four games, while New England has only scored 52.
• The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS and the Patriots are 1-2-1. Both teams are 1-3 straight up.
• Miami will again use Tyler "Snoop" Huntley as its starting quarterback, while the Patriots continue to bench Drake Maye in favor of Jacoby Brissett.

• This spread opened with the Bears as 5.5-point favorites.
• The Panthers have scored 60 points since turning the keys over to Andy Dalton. His passing prop is 217.5 against Chicago. He's gone over that the past two games, but the Bears hold opponents to 174.5 passing yards per game.
• Chicago is 2-0 ATS at home, winning by an average margin of 6.5 points.
• Carolina's only cover came when it was a 5.5-point underdog in Las Vegas.

• The Bengals secured their first win of the season with a 10-point victory over the Panthers in Week 4.
• The Ravens beat the Bills by 25 at home in Week 4.
• Baltimore is 2-2 ATS but has covered in its last two contests. Cincy is also 2-2 ATS, but both covers were on the road.
• This feels like an overreaction to the Bengals beating a bad Panthers team.

Sunday 4 p.m. ET slate

• Both the Cardinals and 49ers are 2-2 ATS this season.
• San Francisco returned to .500 with a 17-point victory at home over the Patriots. Despite several injuries to key offensive players, the 49ers average the second-most yards per game and eighth-most points per contest.
• Arizona gave up 42 points to the Commanders. The Cardinals' defense has allowed the fourth-most points, resulting in the highest total of the slate.

• This total is the second-lowest of the week. The Broncos have scored the fifth-fewest points and accumulated the sixth-fewest yards.
• Denver's Bo Nix threw for only 60 yards in the team's Week 4 upset of the Jets. His passing prop for Week 5 is 188.5 yards.
• The Broncos are 3-1 ATS while pairing one of the league's best defenses with one of the worst offenses.
• The Raiders' star wideout, Davante Adams, sat out last week with a hamstring injury and has since requested a trade.
• Without him, Gardner Minshew threw for only 130 yards last week. His passing prop is 189.5 against the league's third-best passing defense.

• The Giants will be without rookie standout Malik Nabers, who hasn't cleared concussion protocol.
• Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards with 1,182 through four games. His passing total against New York is 250.5, which he surpassed in each of the last three weeks.
• The Giants are 2-2 ATS, while the Seahawks are 1-2-1.
• Seattle is on a short week after playing Monday night, while the Giants have had extra rest following their Thursday night loss to the Cowboys.

• Jordan Love returned for the Packers in Week 4, throwing for 389 yards and four touchdowns in a comeback effort against the Vikings.
• Green Bay went 2-0 in Love's absence, covering both games as underdogs. Love's passing total is 258.5.
• The Rams have the fourth-worst point differential in the league at -40, including their 31-point loss to the Cardinals. They're 1-3 straight up.
• Matthew Stafford will be without his two favorite weapons, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, for a third straight game. Stafford's passing prop is 230.5, a total he hasn't reached in his last three games.
• Since Sean McVay was hired in 2017, the Rams have the best record against the spread (25-17-4) following a loss.

Sunday Night Football

• Justin Fields' production and an elite defense are largely responsible for Pittsburgh's 3-1 record straight up and ATS.
• The Cowboys failed to cover in Week 4 versus the Giants after Brandon Aubrey missed a late field goal.
• Dallas hasn't covered since its Week 1 win over the Browns.
• Pittsburgh allows 13.3 points per game, representing the league's second fewest. The Cowboys' team total is 20.5, which they've gone over twice.