NFL Player of the Year insights: Which stars are bettors backing?
Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet
We're days away from Week 1 of the NFL season, and by now, plenty of action has been taken on futures markets, giving us a good idea of how bettors hope the season will unfold.
Let's look at the four Player of the Year markets to see which stars bettors are putting their money behind.
Offensive Player of the Year
| Player | Odds | % of Bets | % of Handle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | +700 | 3% | 5% |
| Christian McCaffrey | +850 | 6% | 6% |
| CeeDee Lamb | +1000 | 4% | 5% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +1000 | 4% | 6% |
| Justin Jefferson | +1200 | 2% | 2% |
| Saquon Barkley | +1500 | 6% | 7% |
| Bijan Robinson | +1600 | 7% | 9% |
| Breece Hall | +1600 | 9% | 10% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | +1800 | 5% | 4% |
| Garrett Wilson | +2500 | 4% | 6% |
| Puka Nacua | +2500 | 1% | 1% |
| A.J. Brown | +3000 | 1% | 1% |
| Drake London | +3000 | 3% | 3% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | +3000 | 4% | 4% |
| Jonathan Taylor | +3000 | 1% | 1% |
Tyreek Hill is the +700 favorite to win OPOY, but bettors aren't eager to back the Dolphins' speedster. While it's relatively even atop the oddsboards, it's unusual that the favorite isn't garnering more attention. Hill's only amassed 3% of the bets and 5% of the handle (money wagered).
Christian McCaffrey is the reigning Offensive Player of the Year and is +850 to repeat. However, no player has won the award in back-to-back seasons since Marshall Faulk won three straight from 1999-2001.
Bettors seem to be attracted to the odds attached to Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall. They are both +1600 and are the two most bet-on players to win the award.
Their popularity is likely driven by their fantasy football outlooks. Robinson and Hall are being drafted early in the first round, and the player who wins the OPOY award should have an incredible year from a fantasy football perspective.
Finally, it's a bit surprising that CeeDee Lamb (+1000) is not getting as much love from bettors as Robinson or Hall. Lamb is by far the most dangerous weapon in the Cowboys' offense - Dak Prescott will be looking his way often - and he led the NFL in targets and receptions last year while falling only 50 yards shy of Hill's league-leading total.
Perhaps bettors stayed away from Lamb while his contract situation was in limbo, but now that the Cowboys locked up their star wideout, it's all systems go for Lamb in Dallas.
Defensive Player of the Year
| Player | Odds | % of Bets | % of Handle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Parsons | +425 | 6% | 15% |
| T.J. Watt | +500 | 17% | 17% |
| Myles Garrett | +700 | 6% | 9% |
| Maxx Crosby | +900 | 12% | 19% |
| Nick Bosa | +900 | 3% | 2% |
| Aidan Hutchinson | +1000 | 13% | 10% |
| Danielle Hunter | +1800 | 3% | 3% |
| Montez Sweat | +2200 | 4% | 2% |
| Chris Jones | +2500 | 3% | 2% |
| Rashan Gary | +2500 | 2% | 2% |
| Brian Burns | +3000 | 1% | 1% |
| Kyle Hamilton | +3000 | 3% | 2% |
| Will Anderson Jr. | +3000 | 3% | 1% |
Micah Parsons is the +425 favorite to win DPOY, ahead of three of the most recent winners. He's not garnering a high volume of bets, but those who are backing him are doing so in a big way. Parsons has the biggest difference between the number of bets and the percentage of handle, largely due to his short odds.
T.J. Watt (+500), the 2021 winner, has the highest number of bets and ranks second in handle.
Last year's winner, Myles Garrett (+700), is getting the McCaffrey treatment with a low percentage of bets and handle. J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald won back-to-back DPOY awards recently, making it far more likely for Garrett to win than McCaffrey based on history.
Maxx Crosby (+900) leads the way in terms of the percentage of handle. The Raiders' edge rusher was a nominee last year thanks to 14.5 sacks and 50 quarterback pressures.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
| Player | Odds | % of Bet | % of Handle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | +140 | 17% | 32% |
| Jayden Daniels | +500 | 16% | 17% |
| Bo Nix | +1000 | 15% | 15% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | +700 | 12% | 8% |
| Malik Nabers | +1100 | 7% | 6% |
| Xavier Worthy | +2200 | 6% | 4% |
| Keon Coleman | +2500 | 4% | 3% |
| Drake Maye | +1800 | 4% | 4% |
| Ladd McConkey | +4000 | 2% | 1% |
| Brock Bowers | +4000 | 2% | 1% |
Caleb Williams has amassed a whopping 32% of the handle to win OROY at +140. The No. 1 overall pick looked great in preseason and has Bears fans - and bettors - excited for the season. Williams is looking to be the first top pick to win Rookie of the Year since Kyler Murray in 2019.
Jayden Daniels (+500) and Bo Nix (+1000) are attracting a similar level of attention from bettors, although Nix has double Daniels' odds. Both quarterbacks were named starters for their respective teams, while Drake Maye (+1800), the third overall pick, is not seeing the same type of action from bettors because the Patriots have yet to name a starting quarterback.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (+700) leads all non-quarterbacks in the number of bets by a wide margin at 12%. Malik Nabers (+1100) and Xavier Worthy (+2200) are the next closest at 7% and 6%, respectively.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
| Player | Odds | % of Bets | % of Handle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laiatu Latu | +425 | 12% | 17% |
| Dallas Turner | +425 | 8% | 11% |
| Byron Murphy | +1000 | 7% | 10% |
| Jared Verse | +1000 | 7% | 13% |
| Terrion Arnold | +1300 | 11% | 8% |
| Quinyon Mitchell | +1400 | 6% | 5% |
| Chop Robinson | +1600 | 5% | 5% |
| Junion Colson | +2000 | 5% | 4% |
| Cooper DeJean | +2500 | 5% | 3% |
| Mike Sainristil | +2500 | 2% | 3% |
Finally, oddsmakers believe two defensive rookies have a far greater chance of winning the award than anyone else. Laiatu Latu, the first defensive player selected in the 2024 draft at No. 15, and Dallas Turner are co-favorites at +425, an implied win probability of 19%.
Latu leads the way for both bets and handle, while the Rams' Jared Verse and the Lions' Terrion Arnold are getting some love further down the betting board.
The odds, with no clear-cut favorite, and betting splits suggest oddsmakers and the market do not know how the Defensive Player of the Year award will shake out during the season. Perhaps it's best to avoid placing a bet until it becomes clearer which rookies will have prominent roles.