NFL Playoff Picture - Week 12: Postseason seeds, projected draft order

NFL Playoff Picture is a weekly look at the teams jockeying to secure their shot to make it to Super Bowl LIX.

AFC

The Kansas City Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season last week but returned to the win column Sunday by defeating the Carolina Panthers on the strength of Patrick Mahomes' three touchdowns. The Buffalo Bills were on a bye this week and kept the conference's No. 2 seed. The Pittsburgh Steelers still have the third-best seed in the AFC despite losing to the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football, while the Houston Texans remain in control in the South despite a heartbreaking loss to the Tennessee Titans.

In addition to the division leaders, the Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens are also in a great spot to make the playoffs, and the final stretch of the regular season will determine the seeding among those teams. The Chargers host the Ravens on Monday in a highly anticipated clash between the Harbaugh brothers.

The Denver Broncos beat the Las Vegas Raiders this week to keep the No. 7 seed, but that final AFC playoff spot isn't a lock for Sean Payton's outfit yet.

In the hunt

Don't look now, but the Miami Dolphins are coming. Miami blew out the New England Patriots on Sunday to win its third straight game and increase its postseason chances. The Dolphins currently have a 31% chance of making the playoffs, according to The Athletic. They're followed by the Indianapolis Colts (20%) and Cincinnati Bengals (18%).

Indianapolis and Cincinnati still play Denver and have a chance to weaken the Broncos' postseason chances, which sit at 60% right now.

NFC

The Detroit Lions, who entered this week with the NFL's top-ranked offense, scored only 24 points but beat the Indianapolis Colts to secure their second straight season with double-digit wins. The North remains the NFC's strongest division, featuring three teams with three or fewer losses after the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers also won Sunday. Those teams still have head-to-head clashes on tap that will likely have major playoff implications.

Despite Detroit's dominance, the No. 1 seed in the NFC is far from a lock for the Lions - the Philadelphia Eagles, led by Saquon Barkley, have won seven in a row. The star tailback most recently rushed for 255 yards in an all-time performance to take down the Los Angeles Rams. Detroit and Philly are clearly the conference's best teams right now.

The Seattle Seahawks also made a big jump this week, defeating the Arizona Cardinals to take the NFC West lead. However, The Athletic still gives the Cardinals a higher chance to win the division than the Seahawks. The two rivals will face each other again in Arizona on Dec. 8.

In the hunt

Things don't look great for the San Francisco 49ers. The reigning NFC champions haven't played their best football largely because of injuries that most recently kept quarterback Brock Purdy, left tackle Trent Williams, and defensive end Nick Bosa sidelined in a blowout loss to the Packers. San Francisco's postseason chances are only at 11% right now.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers dominated the New York Giants to snap a four-game skid and keep their playoff chances alive. The Bucs are still in the hunt for the NFC's No. 7 seed after the Washington Commanders' loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Winning the South is also a possibility for Tampa Bay, but the team's chances of clinching the division title are only at 19%, as the Buccaneers have already lost two games to the Atlanta Falcons this year.

The Cowboys, as well as the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints, each have four wins in 2024, so they're still mathematically alive in the playoff picture. However, their postseason chances are under 5% after 12 weeks, according to The Athletic.

Projected NFL draft order

The Jacksonville Jaguars had a bye this week and kept their top spot in the projected order for the 2025 NFL Draft. Jacksonville has posted a 2-9 record - same as the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders - but the Jaguars win the tiebreaker here because of their strength of schedule. The team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage is awarded the higher draft choice.