MNF betting preview: Mahomes' passing prop lowest in 5 years
Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet
The Chiefs remain one of two undefeated teams. And those wins haven't come easy - against the Bengals, Falcons, Chargers, and Ravens, all by one score.
While the Chiefs benefited from some questionable late-game calls, their defense has carried them to wins. Kansas City has held opponents to 18 points per game as reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes struggles.
Mahomes hasn't been the otherworldly presence fans expect after back-to-back Super Bowl titles. He's thrown five interceptions and has a below-average passer rating. But things could turn around for Mahomes on Monday night; the Saints' passing defense has been picked apart by opposing quarterbacks. They allow the 10th-most passing yards per game.
New Orleans scored 91 combined points in two dominant wins over the Panthers and Cowboys to open the season. However, the Saints' start was somewhat fluky. The team then dropped tightly contested games to the Eagles and Falcons to move to 2-2 on the year. The Saints relied on an explosive running game in the first two games, but it deteriorated the past two weeks.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs' leading receiver, Rashee Rice, went on IR after his knee made contact with Mahomes' helmet last week. Mahomes has proved he can win with a below-average receiving corps, but not having his favorite target will require an adjustment.
Mahomes' turnover problem - he had the second-most turnover-worthy throws entering Week 5 - and the Chiefs' limited number of playmakers could present an issue against a desperate Saints squad.
Key trends
- The Saints are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) and 2-0 ATS on the road. The Chiefs are 3-1 ATS.
- Since Carr joined, New Orleans is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
- Carr is 7-3-1 ATS on Monday Night Football, while Mahomes is 4-3-1 ATS on MNF.
- Underdogs of 5.5 or more points are 19-4-1 ATS this season with 13 outright wins.
Betting Insights
| % OF BETS | % OF HANDLE | |
|---|---|---|
| Saints +5 | 66.1% | 49.6% |
| Chiefs -5 | 33.9% | 50.4% |
There's a clear disparity between public and sharp bettors. While only one-third of the bets are on the Chiefs to cover, over half of the handle (money wagered) is on KC to cover. Over 78% of the bets and 91% of the handle is on the under, which is at 43.5.
Players to watch
Quarterback props
| Player | Passing Yards |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 224.5 |
| Derek Carr | 199.5 |
Mahomes is still the MVP favorite because of his preseason standing and the disappointing quarterback play across the league, but he's looked far from an MVP this season.
He has gone under his passing yards prop the last three weeks, forcing oddsmakers to lower his line. Mahomes' 224.5 passing yards total is his lowest line in the past five years. He's thrown at least one interception in every game. He's -135 to throw a pick against the Saints.
Carr has thrown at least 200 yards in three of his four games. The Chiefs allow 227 passing yards per game and have just one interception. Carr is -135 to throw a pick.
Rushing props
| Player | Rushing yards prop |
|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 69.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 42.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 19.5 |
| Derek Carr | 3.5 |
As Alvin Kamara has cooled off over the last two weeks, so has the Saints' offense. He ran for 198 yards while averaging over 5 yards per carry in the first two weeks but has 164 rushing yards on less than 4 yards per carry in the past two games. Even with his recent struggles, Kamara has rushed for over 70 yards in all four games, but the Chiefs allow the NFL's eighth-fewest rushing yards per contest.
Receiving props
| Player | Receptions | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5.5 | 59.5 |
| Chris Olave | 4.5 | 59.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4.5 | 34.5 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 3.5 | 49.5 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3.5 | 44.5 |
| Justin Watson | 2.5 | 24.5 |
| Noah Gray | 2.5 | 19.5 |
Travis Kelce struggled the first three games, catching just eight passes for 69 yards. However, he was a larger feature of the offense last week with seven receptions for 89 yards, though he has yet to find the end zone. When Rice went out last week, Kelce had a 31% target share against the Chargers.
Rice led Kansas City in targets, receptions, and yards. Xavier Worthy - the Chiefs' third-leading receiver - should increase his target share in Rice's absence. Worthy hasn't recorded four receptions in a game but has accumulated at least 45 receiving yards twice.
Chris Olave has been Carr's most reliable weapon. Olave recorded at least 80 receiving yards in the past three games. The Saints rely on Kamara on the ground, but he's also a huge part of their passing attack, with at least 40 receiving yards in each of the past three contests.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.