MNF doubleheader betting: Ravens, Chargers to run their way to victories

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

Ravens @ Buccaneers (+3.5, O/U 49.5)

The Ravens and Bucs have been two of the NFL's hottest offenses lately. Tampa Bay scored 51 points against the Saints last week, and Baltimore has posted at least 30 in three straight games. Which defense can do enough to slow down the opposing offensive attack?

Case for Ravens

• After starting 0-2, the Ravens have won four straight and covered three of their last four.
• Since Baltimore drafted Lamar Jackson, the Ravens are 19-14-1 ATS as road favorites.
• The Ravens lead the NFL in total offense, averaging 453 yards and 205 rushing yards per contest. The Eagles have the second-best running game, averaging 166 yards per contest.
• Baker Mayfield is 1-4 straight up and ATS on Monday Night Football.

Case for Bucs

• The Bucs (4-2 straight up and ATS) have the NFL's third-best scoring offense (29.7 points per game).
• Tampa Bay has top-10 passing and rushing attacks.
• Mayfield leads the NFL in touchdown passes (15) and has just five interceptions, three of which came last week.

X-factors

• Jackson has dominated the NFC, going 22-1 (11-11-1 ATS) against the conference's opponents.
• Five of Baltimore's six games have gone over the total this season, and four of Tampa Bay's six matchups have gone over.
• The Ravens' strength is running the football and stopping the run. Baltimore allows a league-low 3.0 yards per rush. The Bucs rely on a balanced offense that features the NFL's eighth-best rushing attack, but it could stumble against the Ravens.
• Tampa Bay opens up the passing game when it efficiently runs the ball. It'll be hard for the Bucs to move the ball if they aren't gaining yards on the ground. Nine of the 12 running backs Baltimore has faced went under their rushing yards prop.
• Led by Derrick Henry, the Ravens are topping the NFL in yards per carry (5.9), while the Bucs allow 4.7 yards per carry, the league's ninth-worst mark.

Best bet - Ravens -3.5

This contest will be decided in the trenches, and Baltimore has the edge in the run game on both sides of the ball. The Ravens are dangerous because Henry and Jackson are elite running threats. The Bucs have shown no answers for elite ground games this year, and they'll have trouble scoring against the Ravens' prolific run defense.

Best prop - Derrick Henry over 89.5 rushing yards

Henry rushed for at least 90 yards in the last four games. As previously noted, the Bucs can't stop the run. The former Titan will never be devoid of attempts, so expect another big performance from Henry.

The Chargers (3-2) made strides on offense against a stingy Broncos defense last week, while the Packers demolished the Cardinals (2-4). Los Angeles and Arizona are desperate to make ground in their divisional races, and both have a prime opportunity in this cross-conference matchup that oddsmakers predict will be closely contested.

Case for Chargers

• Dating back to his 49ers tenure, Jim Harbaugh is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS on MNF.
• Justin Herbert is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS as a road favorite on MNF.
• The Chargers have the NFL's best scoring defense (13.2 points per game) and allow the fifth-fewest yards per game (289).
• The under has hit in 24 of Herbert's last 35 starts.

Case for Cardinals

• Kyler Murray is 27-17-2 ATS as an underdog in his career, the second-best mark behind Jared Goff since 2019.
• The Cardinals have the NFL's seventh-best rushing attack (145 yards per game).
• It's hard to build much of a case for the Cardinals, who struggle defensively and have been inconsistent offensively.

X-factors

• Arizona ranks toward the bottom of the league in virtually every major defensive statistical category, and it can't consistently string together stops. While the Chargers' offense has floundered, it has a keen opportunity to dominate against a porous defense.
• The Cardinals must rely on their run game, but the Chargers allow less than 100 rushing yards per game. Arizona has no chance if it can't move the ball on the ground.
• On the other side, the Cardinals allow the third-most rushing yards per contest (153). Los Angeles will attempt to establish the run early, leading to easier passing opportunities for Herbert.

Best bet - Chargers -1.5

The Cardinals won't have any success moving the ball against the Chargers' defense. Arizona's suspect defense won't stop Los Angeles from scoring frequently, and Jim Harbaugh's Monday Night Football track record in San Francisco speaks for itself.

Best prop - J.K Dobbins over 79.5 rushing yards

As established, the Cardinals struggle against the run. The Chargers feed J.K. Dobbins often, and he usually takes advantage of his touches despite slowing down after a fast start to the season. He's rushed for over 80 yards in three of his five games.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.