Ranking NFL QBs heading into the stretch run

Most teams will only ever go as far as their quarterback takes them. That's the reality of today's game, like it or not.

The upcoming 2024 stretch run offers the perfect opportunity to check in on the state of NFL QB play, perhaps offering some hints as to which teams truly have what it takes to contend.

Mahomes tier 🐐

Sure, there are probably a few QBs who've outplayed Patrick Mahomes so far this season. But we're still talking about one of the best to ever do it. Can we truly take any ranking seriously if the Chiefs superstar isn't alone at the top? Rival QBs may put up better numbers for stretches here and there, but we all know who we're taking to win us a game. Mahomes is in a class of his own until that changes, and don't count on it happening any time soon.

MVP talents 🤩

Lamar Jackson's the best player in football to this point in the season, making him the most-deserving candidate for a third career MVP award. Josh Allen isn't far behind, though, and his ability to consistently take his game to another level in the biggest moments is as close as it gets to Mahomes. Joe Burrow won't get any MVP love unless he drags the Bengals all the way back from their 4-7 start, but he's playing the best football of his career. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert has always been an elite talent and he'll finally start getting respect now that he has some semblance of stability around him. The NFL's top five QBs all playing in the same conference creates quite the gauntlet for AFC teams.

Proven studs 😎

The guys in this group fall short of the truly elite category for one reason or another, though you can't ask for much more from your QBs. Matthew Stafford's continued an incredible level of play into his age-36 season and is forever a shining example of how to tear apart a defense working exclusively from the pocket. Jared Goff's supporting cast will get the majority of the credit in Detroit, but the Lions aren't the team they've become without the nine-year veteran under center.

Houston's offensive line issues aren't going to fool us into thinking C.J. Stroud is no longer the QB we saw as a rookie last year, and Jordan Love's big-play prowess far outweighs his turnover issues, even if he does veer into Brett Favre territory more than you'd like. Kyler Murray is once again becoming a nightmare to defend after returning from a 2022 knee injury.

Middle class 👍

You can win with these guys, and most teams with QBs in this group are doing so (*glares at Jaguars*). Geno Smith's ability to put the Seahawks on his back no matter how often his offensive line gets him beat up means he belongs alongside the other proven studs, though the consistency isn't quite there. Jalen Hurts does more than enough for the Eagles to win, but the supporting cast handles much of the heavy lifting in Philly. Improving Hurts' ability to see plays through from the pocket would make that offense unstoppable.

Tua Tagovailoa and Brock Purdy are both high-level point guards in star-studded offenses, but aren't quite the ceiling-raisers we see in the tiers above. The same can be said about Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield, who routinely exceed expectations while also leaving us wanting more. Trevor Lawrence still has the upside to be a tier or two higher than this, but we can't ignore what we've seen over the past calendar year. A rough situation in Jacksonville has led to some unfortunate regression.

Exciting rookies 📈

We're getting close to having enough exposure to this group to start slotting them into other tiers, but keeping them together still feels right for the time being. All four give their teams reason to be optimistic for the future, at the very least. Jayden Daniels is the runaway favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year and his arrival's pushed the Commanders into immediate playoff contention.

Caleb Williams finds himself in a tough situation with the Bears' offense, but we've seen more than enough flashes to be confident he'll be a great NFL QB. Drake Maye's been balling out before the Patriots even get the chance to build a competent offense around him, while Bo Nix has quietly taken steps toward mastering Sean Payton's offense as a rookie. This crop already has the makings of an elite QB class, and that's before we get to see another pair of first-rounders in Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy.

Veteran stopgaps 🤷

Russell Wilson not cracking the middle class after his hot Pittsburgh start is bound to be controversial, but let's try to look at this rationally. He certainly throws a beautiful deep ball down the sidelines, and the Steelers - unlike the Broncos the two years prior - truly don't need (or ask) him to do much else. But the results could look very different if that changes. Wilson's still the kind of limited veteran you don't want to commit to long term, so the stopgap label is more than fair. The same goes for Derek Carr and Sam Darnold, who started the year strong only to fade back. These are QBs you can win with in the right situation. That's been the case for both the Steelers and Vikings, to this point.

Washed 🚨

We had much hope for Aaron Rodgers heading into this year. Who didn't? Sure, a 40-year-old coming off a torn Achilles could have been viewed as a recipe for disaster, but it seemed like basic above-average QB play was all the Jets needed to take off, and surely a legendary Rodgers could provide it. But it was too much to ask, and Rodgers looks nothing like the QB he was in Green Bay. Not only has he lost the mobility that was so pivotal to his game, but he's also now misfiring on in-rhythm throws he used to hit in his sleep. Rodgers needs a much better situation to squeeze even one more year out of his Hall of Fame career. His days of elevating his team are long gone.

Give them time 🤞

Anthony Richardson's the more interesting name in this category, as a unique set of physical gifts gives him a ceiling in line with some of the league's true superstars. Experience may be all he needs to sort out some of his accuracy and decision-making issues, and early polish displayed in terms of pocket management is incredibly promising to that end. The Colts should be encouraged by what he showed after a two-week benching.

Bryce Young's probably still a long shot to become a high-level starter. He entered the league as an all-time size outlier and his early struggles seemingly confirmed that the issue was going to be a major problem for him in the NFL. Much like Richardson, though, Young made some major improvements after spending a few games on the sidelines - there's still a reason he was the consensus 2023 No. 1 pick despite valid stature concerns. The Panthers should be careful to not panic and give Young every opportunity to make good on his potential. It could still pay off with some patience.

Tank watch 😬

Things are bleak for any team stuck starting one of these guys, whether due to injury, poor decision-making, or the benching of a supposed franchise QB (Giants and Daniel Jones).

But there's bright side here. All five of these teams are in the running for a top pick in next year's draft and playing these QBs isn't going to hurt their chances. While there's still some hope for Will Levis as a long-term starter, it's fading quickly, and the Titans (along with the other four teams) will be hard-pressed to pass on a top QB prospect in April, even if it's a down year for the position.