NFL Playoff Picture - Week 13: Postseason seeds, projected draft order

NFL Playoff Picture is a weekly look at the teams jockeying to secure their shot to make it to Super Bowl LIX.

AFC

x = clinched playoff berth
y = clinched division title
z = clinched first-round bye

The Kansas City Chiefs became the first team to clinch a playoff spot by defeating the Las Vegas Raiders on Friday. It was another one-score victory for the Chiefs, who tied the record for the earliest a team has clinched a postseason berth in the Super Bowl era with five weeks left in the regular season.

The Buffalo Bills remain in the race for the No. 1 seed. Buffalo destroyed the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football to clinch the AFC East title for the fifth straight year. They're only the fourth team to win a division with five or more games to play since division realignment in 2002. The previous clubs to accomplish the feat were the 2004 Philadelphia Eagles, 2007 New England Patriots, and 2009 Indianapolis Colts, who all reached the Super Bowl in those seasons.

It was also another great week for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who beat the Cincinnati Bengals and saw the Baltimore Ravens lose at home to the Philadelphia Eagles. Can the Steelers fight for a first-round bye in the AFC with the Bills and Chiefs? Pittsburgh is only two games behind and still plays Kansas City. A top-three seed seems like a lock for Mike Tomlin's outfit, as the Houston Texans aren't playing their best football. They claimed an ugly win over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

In the hunt

The Miami Dolphins and Bengals both lost this week. That's good news for the Indianapolis Colts, who beat the New England Patriots in the final seconds Sunday to stay alive in the playoff picture. Indy currently has only a 29% chance of reaching the postseason, according to The Athletic, but that scenario could change depending on what happens in the Monday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns.

NFC

The Detroit Lions beat the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving Day but haven't clinched a playoff spot yet. It's just a matter of time, though, and Detroit can officially book its postseason tickets as early as Thursday against the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay lost to Detroit earlier this season but needs to avoid a series sweep against its rivals to have a real chance of catching the Lions for the North's No. 1 place. Of course, let's not forget about the Minnesota Vikings, who stormed back versus the Arizona Cardinals to reach 10 wins in 2024 and keep the NFC's No. 5 seed.

The North isn't the only NFC division that remains open. The Atlanta Falcons suffered their third consecutive loss this week and now have the same record as the Buccaneers after Tampa Bay defeated the Carolina Panthers in overtime. Atlanta is still in first place in the South because of its 2-0 record against Tampa Bay this campaign.

Finally, the Philadelphia Eagles kept their momentum by taking down the Ravens in a battle of heavyweights. Winners of eight in a row, Philadelphia has the NFC East title all but secured, and Nick Sirianni's outfit is still in the mix to have a bye in the first round of the postseason.

In the hunt

The Commanders currently have a 72% chance of reaching the playoffs, so it could be hard for the Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Los Angeles Rams to make a run for the NFC's No. 7 seed. However, Arizona and L.A. remain only one game behind the Seattle Seahawks, who found a way to beat the New York Jets after a slow first quarter. The Athletic gives Seattle a 38% chance of making the postseason and Arizona a 35% chance. Los Angeles and San Francisco come next in the division with 27% and 10%, respectively.

Projected NFL draft order

Three teams are 2-10 after Week 13 - the worst record in the league - but the Jaguars remain No. 1 in the projected 2025 draft order thanks to the strength of schedule tiebreaker. (The team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage receives the higher draft choice.) Head-to-head matchups could decide this race moving forward - Jacksonville plays the 3-9 Tennessee Titans (twice), 2-10 Raiders, and 3-9 Jets in its next four weeks.