Top NFL head coaching candidates after Belichick joins UNC

Another coaching carousel is nearly upon us.

Bill Belichick recently punted on the uncertainty of the upcoming NFL cycle with a stunning move to take the top job at North Carolina. The Patriots legend was no lock to land another pro job this time around, but he at least figured to be a contender for a few openings.

How does the coaching landscape stack up with one big fish already off the board? Let's take a look at the top candidates.

Ben Johnson

Any team in the market for a new head coach will be lining up for a chance to speak to Johnson. This won't be a typical process, though. The Lions offensive coordinator will be vetting prospective employers as much as they'll be vetting him. After withdrawing from the Commanders' search last year, there are probably only so many jobs for which he'd take an interview. The well-oiled machine he's built in Detroit has earned him that type of status, a rarity among prospective first-time head coaches.

The Lions boast the NFL's highest-scoring offense across the last three seasons under Johnson's leadership. The unit also ranks second in total EPA, third in pass EPA, and fourth in rush EPA over that stretch, according to TruMedia. The masterful way in which he's married the run and pass games within the offense gives Johnson a legitimate case as the most important figure in the Lions' ascent from basement-dweller to bona fide powerhouse. Handing him the keys to your organization gives you hope of replicating that success.

Mike Vrabel

Here's hoping you didn't forget about Vrabel - NFL teams certainly didn't. The former Titans head coach has been a consultant on the Browns' staff this season. That may seem a little odd, but it's pretty clear that he's merely been keeping himself busy while waiting for the next head coaching cycle. It'd be an enormous upset if Vrabel didn't land a job this offseason after interviewing for a few openings following his dismissal last January.

Vrabel posted a 54-45 record with the Titans, leading his team to three straight playoff appearances from 2019-2021. That track record becomes all the more impressive when you consider the rosters he was working with. His leadership was seemingly a driving factor in Tennessee consistently playing above its talent level, and his hard-nosed mentality resulted in top-seven production in rush EPA on both offense and defense during his tenure. Vrabel is an ideal candidate for any team seeking a true program-builder. His second crack at a head coaching job could yield even better results with a franchise quarterback.

Brian Flores

Flores might be your guy if you like the idea of giving opposing quarterbacks nightmares ahead of game day. The Vikings defensive coordinator is leading the charge at a time when defenses have started to adjust to offensive innovation and find ways to dictate games themselves. Minnesota's defense currently ranks second in both EPA/play and turnovers. With all due respect to the Vikings roster, this isn't a matter of defense winning on sheer talent. Flores' scheme is downright diabolical.

Minnesota has a league-high 37.2% blitz rate, but frequency is only a small part of the story. It's also a matter of disguise and creativity. The Vikings defense has led the NFL in alignments with five-plus man fronts for each of the past two years under Flores, according to Next Gen Stats. They've dropped players into coverage out of those looks at a 52.3% clip this season, also the highest rate league-wide. In other words, Minnesota is stacking the line in exotic looks, and quarterbacks have no idea who's going where until the ball is snapped.

The chaotic results speak for themselves. Flores deserves credit both for cooking up this system and being able to teach it in a way that allows players to consistently execute at a high level. He's simply one of the best coaches in football.

Jesse Minter

Minter was the most important hire for Jim Harbaugh's staff. Unfortunately for the Chargers head coach, he may not be sticking around for long. The former Michigan defensive coordinator has found immediate success at the NFL level. Los Angeles' defense has skyrocketed to No. 7 in total EPA after finishing last season as a bottom-five unit.

It should also be noted that the ascent came after salary-cap issues prevented the Chargers from doing any major roster reconstruction last offseason. The sky is the limit for Minter's defense when he gets the chance to bring in a collection of players that fit his scheme. Some teams may be scared off by the fact that he only has one season as an NFL coordinator under his belt. The smarter ones will know this may be their only chance to get him. Minter will be the Mike Macdonald of this cycle.

Kliff Kingsbury

Giving Kingsbury another shot as a head coach might feel like playing with fire. A 28-37-1 record with the Cardinals was a major disappointment, and it's not like he was a huge success in college, either. Kingsbury also posted a sub-.500 mark across six seasons at Texas Tech. But quarterback development is everything in today's NFL, and it sure seems like he's got some magic in that space.

Owners will be encouraged by what Kingsbury has done with Jayden Daniels in Washington despite a largely mediocre supporting cast. A QB-friendly system has aided the Heisman Trophy winner's adjustment to the NFL level and helped him put together the sixth-best rookie season by EPA/play since 2000. Kingsbury is also still only 45 years old, so one can make the case that his first NFL head coaching opportunity came too early. A second chance could yield far better results, assuming he's learned from previous missteps.

Liam Coen

Coen is taking the Bucs' offense to another level in his first season as an NFL coordinator. Dave Canales earned the Panthers' head coaching job by leading Tampa Bay's offense to a No. 7-ranked finish in pass EPA last season. Coen's offense ranks No. 6 in that regard thus far despite losing Chris Godwin for the year in October.

But that's only part of the appeal. The 2023 Bucs finished 30th in rush EPA under Canales, averaging a league-worst 3.4 yards per carry. The run game has flipped the script under Coen, jumping up to sixth in rush EPA this year while averaging 5.2 yards per attempt, the second-best mark league-wide. Coen, who previously spent time on Sean McVay's staff in Los Angeles, can probably expect to receive interview requests for almost all of this year's job openings. The Bucs could be looking for an offensive coordinator for the third time in as many years.

Aaron Glenn

Overseeing a productive unit is typically more than enough to get you consideration for head coaching interviews. Doing so while clearly elevating the roster makes you a legitimately strong candidate.

The Lions aren't exactly short on talent, but some brutal injury luck has picked apart the defense throughout this season. Detroit still ranks eighth in defensive EPA despite the mounting losses. Glenn's unique ability to prepare his defense has allowed new players to seamlessly step into prominent roles, in some cases immediately after joining the team off the street. It's worth finding out if he can translate that into building a program of his own as a head coach.

Todd Monken

Monken's name seemingly hasn't generated much excitement on the coaching carousel. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that first-timers tend to be on the younger side. At 58, he'd be the NFL's seventh-oldest head coach. The numbers are begging you to not overthink this one, though. Monken's arrival as the offensive coordinator last season has helped make the Ravens' passing game a juggernaut.

Lamar Jackson is a factor here, of course, but Monken's reputation as one of the league's best play designers is independent of his star quarterback. You won't find many offensive minds who do a better job of putting their players in a position to succeed. A deep playoff run will only help his chances.

Joe Brady

What a ride it's been for Brady. A rough tenure as the Panthers' offensive coordinator from 2020-21 seemed to create the impression that his success at LSU was more about Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson than anything else. It was an understandable assumption, and one he may be fighting again with Josh Allen as his quarterback in Buffalo. Allen is a cheat code, to be sure, but Brady isn't merely along for the ride.

Brady's designs and play-calling skills have been crucial for Buffalo's ability to sustain offensive production in a year where so many were expecting regression. The passing game has been a force despite significant workloads for some veteran journeymen receivers, and the Bills rank third in rush EPA for the second straight year. Brady could be an especially interesting option if Burrow and Chase are in the market for a new coach in Cincinnati.

Vance Joseph

Joseph is a fascinating candidate in this cycle. His first opportunity as a head coach didn't end well as he posted an 11-21 record with the Broncos from 2017-18. But how can you ignore what he's done in his return to the organization as a coordinator? Joseph has led Denver's defense all the way back from the embarrassment of last year's 70-point game to become one of the league's best units.

The Broncos currently rank first in total EPA, pass EPA, and rush EPA. Aside from Patrick Surtain, he's not exactly working with a host of established stars, either. You'd be hard-pressed to identify a more impressive individual coaching job over the last year. Joseph may be in the process of earning another chance in a lead role.

Other names to watch

Drew Petzing, Cardinals OC
Kellen Moore, Eagles OC
Bobby Slowik, Texans OC
Ejiro Evero, Panthers DC
Steve Spagnuolo, Chiefs DC