NFL Playoff Picture - Week 16: Postseason seeds, projected draft order

NFL Playoff Picture is a weekly look at the teams jockeying to secure their shot to make it to Super Bowl LIX.

AFC

x = clinched playoff berth
y = clinched division title
z = clinched first-round bye

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Houston Texans on Saturday to move closer to clinching the AFC's No. 1 seed for the third time in five years. The Buffalo Bills - who most recently defeated the New England Patriots - remain in the hunt, but K.C. only needs one win in its final two games to secure home-field advantage.

The Baltimore Ravens locked up their playoff spot by defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday. Baltimore now has the same record as Pittsburgh, but the Steelers win the tiebreaker for having a better record in conference games. The Ravens visit the Texans and host the Cleveland Browns in their final two contests, while the Steelers have home matchups versus the Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals. The Athletic currently gives Baltimore a 52% chance of winning the North.

There are only two spots available in the AFC playoff picture, but the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos can clinch them as early as next week. With the help of a rare fair catch kick, the Chargers swept their season series against the Broncos on Thursday to move up to the 6-seed and drop Denver to the No. 7 spot. The 7-seed here most likely will have to travel to Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs, but finishing at No. 6 could be just as challenging if the Ravens stay hot and win their division.

In the hunt

The Indianapolis Colts likely won't make the playoffs, but they're still alive after beating the Tennessee Titans. The Colts - as well as the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals - are two games behind the Broncos with two weeks remaining in the regular season. Indy wins the head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami and also has a better win percentage in conference matchups than Cincinnati.

However, the Colts have to win out to potentially reach the playoffs and need a combination of scenarios to go their way. The simpler path? The Chargers lose their final two games against ... the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders. Good luck, Indy.

NFC

x = clinched playoff berth
y = clinched division title
z = clinched first-round bye

The Detroit Lions winner of the NFC North is getting closer to clinching home-field advantage after the Philadelphia Eagles lost to the Washington Commanders in the final seconds. Detroit is a juggernaut and remains the favorite to win the North (its chances are at 66% right now), but let's not forget the Minnesota Vikings, who also have 13 wins after defeating the Seahawks in Seattle. The regular-season finale between Detroit and Minnesota could decide the division and conference's top seed. It's hard to remember the last time these teams played each other with so much at stake.

By stunning the Eagles, the Commanders secured their first campaign with double-digit wins since 2012. Washington has yet to officially clinch a playoff spot, but the club's chances sit at 94%, according to The Athletic. As for the Eagles, grabbing the 1-seed is very unlikely, but Philly is just one win away from clinching its second division title in three years.

Another team in a good position to win its division is the Los Angeles Rams, who've come a long way after starting the season 1-4. The Rams' win over the New York Jets on Sunday, combined with the Seahawks' loss to the Vikings, leaves L.A. with an 83% chance of finishing first in the West.

The Atlanta Falcons - who started Michael Penix Jr. for the first time - again control their destiny following a win over the New York Giants and a Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Atlanta and Tampa Bay have a small chance of reaching the postseason together if Washington loses out, but the more likely scenario for the Falcons or Bucs is the division crown. Atlanta owns the tiebreaker here after sweeping its season series over Tampa Bay.

In the hunt

Seattle's path to the postseason got harder, but it's not impossible. If the Seahawks beat the Chicago Bears on Thursday and the Rams lose to the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday, all Seattle would need in the final week of the season is a win over Los Angeles. If both the Seahawks and Rams win next week, and then Seattle beats L.A. to tie the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Seahawks' strength of victories would decide the West crown. In that case, Seattle would need several other games to work in its favor to advance.

Projected NFL draft order

The Raiders claimed their third win by defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, leaving the Giants as the only two-win team left in 2024 and alone on pace to pick first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft. The 2-13 Giants - who have matchups against the Colts and Eagles coming up - haven't had the No. 1 selection since taking running back Tucker Frederickson in 1965.