NFL Playoff Picture - Week 17: Postseason seeds, projected draft order

NFL Playoff Picture is a weekly look at the teams jockeying to secure their shot to make it to Super Bowl LIX.

AFC

x = clinched playoff berth
y = clinched division title
z = clinched first-round bye

The top two seeds in the AFC are locked up. The Kansas City Chiefs, seeking a historic three-peat, ensured the conference's playoffs will run through Arrowhead Stadium following their Christmas Day victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Buffalo Bills also blew out the New York Jets to secure the 2-seed for the third straight year.

The Baltimore Ravens are in control of the North after dominating the Houston Texans on Wednesday to pass the Steelers for first place. Baltimore will clinch the division title with a win over the Cleveland Browns next. A Ravens loss combined with a Steelers win over the Cincinnati Bengals would give the division crown and 3-seed to Pittsburgh.

The Los Angeles Chargers blew out the New England Patriots on Saturday to clinch a playoff berth and add to Jim Harbaugh's impressive first season back in the NFL. The regular-season finale versus the Las Vegas Raiders could have seeding implications for the Chargers, who would move up to the No. 5 seed with a win and a Steelers loss.

The race for the AFC's 7-seed remains open after the Cincinnati Bengals' epic overtime win over the Denver Broncos on Saturday. Denver will still make the playoffs if it beats Kansas City next week.

In the hunt

The Indianapolis Colts, missing an injured Anthony Richardson, lost to the New York Giants on Sunday and were eliminated from the playoff hunt, leaving the Miami Dolphins and Bengals as the only teams that still have a chance to pass the Broncos. Miami - which most recently defeated the Browns - wins the tiebreaker over Cincinnati based on its win percentage in conference games.

The Dolphins need a victory over the New York Jets in Week 18 and a Broncos loss to make the playoffs. But if Miami and Denver both lose their regular-season finales, the Bengals would advance to the postseason if they beat the Steelers.

NFC

x = clinched playoff berth
y = clinched division title
z = clinched first-round bye

Football fans are in for a treat next week with the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings playing for the NFC's No. 1 seed and NFC North title. The Vikings won their 14th game Sunday versus the Green Bay Packers. The Lions play the San Francisco 49ers on Monday and can reclaim the conference's top spot with a win. Regardless of the Lions-49ers result, whoever wins the divisional matchup between Detroit and Minnesota next week will clinch a first-round bye in the playoffs, while the loser will play a road postseason matchup as the 5-seed.

The Philadelphia Eagles clinched the East title after blowing out the Dallas Cowboys despite playing without Jalen Hurts, who's expected to clear concussion protocol and be available for the playoffs. Philly has also officially clinched the NFC's No. 2 spot.

The Los Angeles Rams defeated the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday. With the Washington Commanders' win over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, L.A. clinched the West title and eliminated the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle could still tie Los Angeles' record, but the Rams have secured the decisive tiebreakers with other help from other teams this week.

Not only did Washington help Los Angeles on Sunday, but the Commanders also officially booked their playoff ticket by taking down the Falcons in overtime. It's Washington's first postseason berth since the 2020 season and marks a remarkable turnaround for a team that won only four games last year.

Atlanta's loss also put the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back in the driver's seat and one win away from winning the South. The Bucs, who dominated the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, play the New Orleans Saints in Week 18.

In the hunt

Atlanta had a chance to beat Washington with a last-second field-goal attempt but failed to convert. The OT loss puts the Falcons outside the playoff picture ahead of the regular-season finale. They'll need a win over the Panthers along with a Buccaneers loss to win the South thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker. (The Falcons swept their 2024 season series against the Bucs.)

Projected NFL draft order

For the second straight week, the NFL has a new team projected to pick first in the 2025 draft. With the Giants upsetting the Colts and the Patriots' loss to the Chargers, New England now has the top spot in the projected draft order with one week left in the 2024 regular season. The 3-13 Patriots have the same record as the Tennessee Titans, Giants, and Browns, but New England wins the strength of schedule tiebreaker, according to Tankathon. (The team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage receives the higher draft choice.) The Pats haven't picked first overall since taking Drew Bledsoe in 1993. New England is the only team this season that's already locked in a top-five pick in 2025 regardless of its Week 18 result.