1 major question for each NFC wild-card matchup

Wild Card Weekend is upon us. A dozen teams will clash for the right to join the top-seeded Chiefs and Lions in the next round of the NFL postseason. Here are key storylines to follow in the NFC games.

Note: All times listed are Eastern. Read our preview of the AFC slate.

Packers at Eagles, Sunday at 4:30 p.m.
Will Saquon Barkley run rampant?

The Eagles rested their 2,005-yard rusher last week to avoid injury and recharge for a championship chase. Barkley's brush with the single-season record ended because his club knows he's irreplaceable.

Barkley outgained 20 entire teams on the ground in 2024. He bested the immense production of Derrick Henry, the only NFL running back on his level, and was head and shoulders above the position's other standouts. He handled 41% of Eagles touches and produced the fifth-greatest share of an offense's scrimmage yards (35%) in the league over the past 10 seasons, according to TruMedia.

Glaringly one-dimensional, the Eagles gained the NFL's fewest passing yards (175 per game) after the midseason mark. Blockers blazed trails for Barkley, who picked up two-thirds of his rushing yards (1,328) before contact, per Pro Football Reference. Philadelphia went 10-1 in his 100-yard outings, and only three opponents held him below the league average of 4.4 yards per rush.

The Packers have the pieces to slow or counter Barkley. Six of their last seven opponents rushed for well under 100 yards, and the defense allowed a meager 3.2 yards per carry in those games. Workhorse running back Josh Jacobs rides an eight-week touchdown streak (league-high 12 rushing scores in the span) into his Green Bay playoff debut.

Losing Christian Watson, their main deep threat, to an ACL tear compounds the adversity facing the Packers. The historic strength of the top-heavy NFC North forced them to travel to Philly as the seventh seed. Green Bay is the fourth 11-win team in the Super Bowl era to place third in its division, per Stathead.

Both quarterbacks were ailing this week: Jordan Love left Green Bay's Week 18 defeat with an elbow injury, and Jalen Hurts just returned to practice following a concussion. Pounding the ball upfield will matter Sunday.

Commanders at Buccaneers, Sunday at 8 p.m.
Can either defense prevent a fireworks display?

These scorching offenses score in waves. Both teams erupted for 40 or more points three times. The Commanders were a spotless 7-0 and the Buccaneers were 6-2 when they crossed the 30-point threshold.

In Tampa Bay's balanced attack, Bucky Irving's rushing prowess complements Baker Mayfield's gunslinging ability. A stellar 71.4% completion rate helped the veteran quarterback amass 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns for the first time. Mayfield made up for Chris Godwin's absence by feeding star wideout Mike Evans as well as Irving and other Bucs running backs, who totaled the second-most receiving yards (52.6 per game) by an RB group, per TruMedia.

The franchise-altering selection of Jayden Daniels in the draft quickened the Commanders' rebuild. The rookie quarterback owned big moments, leading clutch touchdown marches in December to beat the Eagles on the final snap and edge the Falcons in overtime. He scrambled to great effect, ranking second at his position with 891 rushing yards, and jelled with Terry McLaurin, the NFC leader with 13 touchdown receptions.

Both defenses are unspectacular but competitive, and Tampa Bay's unit enjoyed a drastic turnaround. The Buccaneers rocketed from 30th in defensive EPA entering their Week 11 bye to third in the stat from Weeks 12-18 against a light schedule, per TruMedia. The Commanders helped Daniels build leads, giving up the third-fewest points in first halves (8.6 per game), while the Bucs applied the clamps later, conceding the second fewest after halftime (7.9).

Either defense could impact the matchup by punishing the passers' lapses. Ever the daredevil, Mayfield tossed a league-high 16 interceptions (with five multi-pick games) and committed the most turnover-worthy plays (25, per PFF).

Daniels is pretty precise, but his completion rate sagged below 60% in four starts. He's trying to join a short list as the fourth rookie quarterback - and the first since Russell Wilson in 2013 - to win a road playoff game.

Vikings at Rams, Monday at 8 p.m.
Will Minnesota disorient Matthew Stafford?

The Vikings laid waste to game plans while racking up 14 victories, a franchise high since 1998. Only two quarterbacks disrupted their defensive dominance: Stafford and Detroit's Jared Goff.

Defensive coordinator Brian Flores' blueprint calls for the Vikings to disguise blitz packages with pre-snap movement, then send the house. Their NFL-high 38.9% blitz rate sowed confusion and stress. Minnesota recorded the fourth-biggest sack haul (49) and other excellent defensive numbers, including league bests in interceptions (24), takeaways (33), and opponent scoring percentage (a mere 31.6% of drives).

But wily veteran quarterbacks stayed calm and solved the scheme. When the Rams won 30-20 in October, Stafford controlled the ball for 33 minutes, fired 25 completions to nine targets for 279 yards, and punctuated four methodical drives with touchdown throws. He made quick, assured decisions and wasn't sacked. By EPA/dropback, Stafford's performance rated in the 93rd percentile of QB games this season, according to TruMedia.

Minnesota held 11 passers to subpar EPA games as some defenders enjoyed career years, including edge rushers Jonathan Greenard (12 sacks, four forced fumbles) and Andrew Van Ginkel (11.5 sacks, two pick-6s). They provided key support for Sam Darnold, whose accurate deep shots spurred Justin Jefferson to the NFL lead in receiving yards before the catch (1,046 of Jefferson's total of 1,533).

The Vikings are the winningest fifth seed in NFL history. They eclipsed the previous high win total for a division runner-up: 13 by the 1999 Titans, per Stathead.

Rounding into form, the Rams hung 44 points on the Bills and held three straight foes below 10 points during a December win streak that got them into the dance. Stafford was intercepted just once in that span, and Puka Nacua raised his weekly receiving average to 90 yards, slightly more than he managed as a stupendous rookie.

Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.