Key takeaways and analysis from Week 18 in the NFL

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

Team of destiny

The Lions aren't going to let anything get in the way of their ultimate goal.

Outside expectations were slowly being dialed back as injuries began to pile up over the second half of the season. The defense, most notably, had fallen off a cliff with several key players sidelined, ranking dead last in total EPA over the last five weeks, according to TruMedia's model.

That's not exactly the direction you want to be going in heading into a high-stakes battle with a Vikings squad capable of exploiting any weaknesses you have on either side of the ball. As it turns out, the Lions couldn't care less.

Detroit came away from Sunday night's heavyweight title having earned the No. 1 seed in incredibly convincing fashion. The offense was every bit as good as it has been all year long, dicing up the vaunted Vikings defense en route to its 10th 30-point performance of the season. Ben Johnson put on another clinic as a play-caller, and Jahmyr Gibbs dominated to the tune of four touchdowns.

But the real story was a monumental showing from Detroit's beat-up defense. The Lions' ultra-aggressive game plan had Sam Darnold under duress throughout the night. Detroit blitzed on 55.6% of dropbacks and played Cover 0 on 14 different snaps, the highest total from any defense this season, according to Next Gen Stats.

The result: Darnold completing just 18 of 41 passes for a season-low 166 yards and no touchdowns. It's also only the second time all year that the Vikings were held out of the end zone.

Detroit's defense flipping the script and coming through with this kind of performance against a premier opponent tells you everything you need to know. And that's why, along with Johnson, you're going to hear a lot about defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn during the upcoming coaching cycle. Who wouldn't want a piece of this foundation?

Nobody embodies the "next man up" mentality like the Lions. It really might be their year.

Reunion brewing

The Patriots didn't waste any time.

News of Jerod Mayo's firing broke little more than an hour after New England capped a disastrous season with a win over Buffalo's second-stringers. Just one year after being installed as Robert Kraft's hand-picked successor for Bill Belichick, the former Patriots linebacker was already on the way out the door.

It's a brutal and ultimately unfair result for Mayo - nobody was going to win anything with the roster Belichick left behind, let alone a first-year head coach. But it sure seems like this was a strategic move on the part of Patriots ownership.

League insiders largely agreed as recently as this week that Mayo was in no danger of losing his job. It was only fair to see it through. What changed? Probably the availability of another franchise legend with a proven track record as a head coach.

Mike Vrabel getting started on a presumed busy interview schedule by meeting with the division-rival Jets no doubt caught Kraft's attention. And that may have been the idea all along. Aditi Kinkhabwala of CBS reported after Mayo's firing that Vrabel's flirtation with New York was designed to put pressure on the Patriots.

Vrabel will have plenty of suitors in this year's coaching cycle, many of whom are undoubtedly willing to make him one of the league's highest-paid coaches. But it's hard to find a better fit for the former Titans coach than New England - he was a part of three Super Bowl teams across eight seasons with the organization as a player.

The Patriots already have a young franchise quarterback in place, they've got the No. 4 pick in the 2025 draft, and they'll enter the offseason with a league-high $131 million in cap space. And it's fair to assume Vrabel will be comfortable with everything the organization has to offer in terms of structure.

A high-profile reunion already feels inevitable.

Quick slants

The right call

Jim Harbaugh understood the value of the No. 5 seed in this year's AFC playoffs. Resting his starters simply wasn't an option when a win over the Raiders would earn the Chargers a trip to Houston rather than Baltimore. Los Angeles indeed rolled to its 11th win of the season, the club's most since 2018. Anything can happen in the playoffs, but the Texans are easily the most favorable draw among division winners. Assuming there are no other upsets on the AFC side, taking care of business against the AFC South winners would set the Chargers up for a divisional-round meeting with the Chiefs. Don't sleep on that potential matchup as a difficult draw for the reigning champs. Los Angeles held tough in each of the two division matchups earlier this season, and beating a team three times in the same year is no easy task.

No one to blame

There's no denying that the AFC playoff picture would be significantly more interesting if Cincinnati was rolling into Buffalo on Wild Card Weekend. In many ways, it feels wrong that a Bengals offense with this much firepower won't be playing under the bright lights in the postseason. But it's a deserved outcome. The Bengals wouldn't have been counting on an unlikely win from the Chiefs' backups if they had managed to avoid even one of their eight losses. That includes an embarrassing Week 1 defeat to the Patriots, who went on to finish 4-13 and fire their coach immediately after the regular-season finale. Cincinnati is probably too conservative to make significant leadership changes, but wasting this kind of season from Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase should be inexcusable. The standard has to be higher with that much talent leading the way.

The ultimate respect

It seemed like Mike Evans was going to fall a mere five yards shy of his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season. The Buccaneers weren't going to let that happen, though. Rather than running the clock out after getting the ball back with under a minute to play, Tampa Bay gave its star receiver one last chance to continue his historic run. The team's collective reaction after Evans hauled in a pass to pick up the yards he needed demonstrated how much this milestone meant to everyone. The consistency he's provided since joining the Bucs as a first-round pick back in 2014 has him on track for the Pro Football Hall of Fame whenever he decides to call it a career. But he might have several more 1,000-yard seasons in the tank before that time comes. Evans extending his streak by one more year would break Jerry Rice's all-time record.

Rams don't bother

Every playoff team handles Week 18 differently. Sitting key players is understandable if there's little to be gained from a win. Is that really the situation the Rams were facing, though? L.A. entered this week needing a win to secure the No. 3 seed. A loss combined with a Bucs win would drop the Rams down to the No. 4 slot. It seems like a minor difference, and Sean McVay evidently treated it as such by turning to Jimmy Garoppolo and many other second-stringers. But it's tough to see the logic. The Rams coming up just short against the Seahawks sets them up for a wild-card matchup against the Vikings. A win would have meant they'd host the Commanders. Might we be looking back at this decision as a mistake one week from now?

Chase triple crown

Ja'Marr Chase wasn't as ruthless as he could have been during his preseason holdout. He opted to play the 2024 campaign without an extension in place, and his price tag has only continued to rise. The former first-round wideout took his game to yet another level this season, becoming only the fifth player in NFL history to lead the league in catches (127), receiving yards (1,708), and receiving touchdowns (17). The monster season leaves little doubt about what's to come in contract talks. Chase will soon be the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history, passing Justin Jefferson's mark of $35 million per year. And he deserves every penny.

Titans on the clock

The Patriots finishing the season with a win pushes them all the way down to No. 4 in the 2025 NFL Draft order. The Titans are the primary beneficiary, jumping up to the No. 1 spot for the first time since 1978. It's a potentially massive development for a team that desperately needs a franchise quarterback. The only problem: this isn't the best year to be looking for one. Taking a swing at the most important position on the field is still Tennessee's most obvious path back to relevance. And, consensus draft evaluations have been wrong countless times before. But it still feels like a tough break for a team that already doesn't have the best fortune when it comes to drafting signal-callers. The Titans, along with other teams at the top of the draft, will have to hope that this class can surprise us.

Patience paying off

Not long ago, we were looking at Bryce Young as one of the worst No. 1 picks of all time. He looked completely overwhelmed as a rookie, and an early benching this season was an ominous sign for his future. But Young stayed the course. To their credit, the Panthers did too. The patience from all parties has culminated in Young finishing his sophomore season looking a lot more like the superstar we saw at Alabama. Sunday's win over the Falcons, who were playing for their playoff lives, was easily the best performance of his career thus far. Young connected on 24 of 34 passes for 251 yards and three touchdowns while adding another pair of scores on the ground. The sensational outing represents the most single-game EPA from a Panthers quarterback since Cam Newton in 2017, according to TruMedia. Carolina should feel good about its future.

Packers injuries

The last week of the regular season wasn't kind to the Packers. Losing to the Bears, of course, is no way to gear up for the playoffs. And the Green Bay offense will now head into the postseason having taken at least one major hit. Christian Watson was carted off with a knee injury. Receiver depth may be a strength of Green Bay's offense, but the third-year wideout has been a particularly valuable piece to the puzzle: The Packers finished the regular season averaging 0.11 EPA/play with Watson on the field and 0.01 EPA/play without him. That's the difference between the fourth- and 16th-ranked offense. Jordan Love also exited with an elbow injury. While it seemed like he would have returned if the game had more meaning, any questions about your quarterback's throwing arm heading into a playoff matchup with the Eagles aren't ideal.

Stat of the week