Coaching carousel predictions: Where do top candidates end up?
The NFL coaching carousel is in full swing.
Six teams are officially looking for new leadership, while Dallas has until Jan. 14 to figure out what it wants to do with Mike McCarthy.
Here's an early prediction for the hires made by each club.
New England Patriots
Mike Vrabel
We can probably go ahead and lock this one in now. Vrabel has clearly been the Patriots' top target since the decision to fire Jerod Mayo after one season. An interview was quickly scheduled for Thursday, and the organization made a mockery out of the Rooney Rule to make sure league requirements were satisfied the day prior. Ben Johnson is still slated to speak with New England on Friday, but Aaron Glenn reportedly turning down an interview is yet another sign that there's an understanding of where this is headed.
Vrabel is a proven leader with a track record of getting the most out of his teams. Maybe another team gives him something to think about. It's tough to see any of them being able to offer as much as the Patriots, though. New England has a future star at quarterback, the No. 4 pick in this year's draft, and over $130 million in cap space. Factor in the familiarity with the organization - Vrabel won three Super Bowls as a player in New England and was inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame in 2023 - and this seems like a dream fit for both parties.
Chicago Bears
Brian Flores
Chicago has been considered a possible - if not likely - landing spot for Ben Johnson. The Bears job will always be a marquee role, and the presence of Caleb Williams alone could make this an especially attractive opportunity. But Ryan Poles' influence looms large.
Chicago is staying committed to its general manager after ushering out Matt Eberflus and his staff, insisting that he'll run the search for a new head coach. That could complicate the fit with Johnson, who should remain fairly particular about personnel structure after passing on head coaching opportunities over the last two years. The fit with Flores wouldn't be nearly as complex.
The Vikings defensive coordinator was a teammate of Ryan Poles at Boston College back in 2003. SI's Albert Breer also reported last month that Bears president Kevin Warren got good reviews on Flores from his contacts with the Vikings, where he spent 15 years.
Flores would need to have a strong hire in mind to lead the offense, and he'll have to answer questions about Tua Tagovailoa's criticism from their time together in Miami. But he's undoubtedly earned a reputation as one of the best coaches in football. Minnesota's defense finished the regular season ranked third in EPA, according to TruMedia's model, and tied for the league lead with 33 turnovers.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Ben Johnson
It was difficult to imagine the Jaguars landing a top candidate after the stunning decision to keep Trent Baalke as the general manager. But then owner Shad Khan admitted - with Baalke on the conference call, no less - that he'd make a change if an incoming coach can make a good case. It was music to the ears of Jaguars fans everywhere. Flexibility on that front could put a number of options back in play, including the the hottest name among rising coordinators.
Johnson has been understandably picky in waiting out a suitable opportunity for his first head coaching job - the Lions' star offensive coordinator removed his name from consideration for openings in each of the last two years. So why would the Jaguars (a team drafting in the top five for the ninth time in 14 years) be the one to lure him away?
Having a quarterback in place certainly doesn't hurt, the draft capital will come in handy, and you could do a whole lot worse than setting up shop in sunny Florida with no state income tax. The Jaguars have a real chance to make the splash of the offseason if Khan commits to reworking the personnel department to align with Johnson's vision.
Las Vegas Raiders
Liam Coen
The Raiders opted to clean house after Antonio Pierce's first full season on the job, giving new part owner Tom Brady an opportunity to make his presence felt at the top of the organization. Reports have suggested Brady will have a significant role in the search for a new head coach and general manager, leading many to assume that he might be inclined to tap into his Patriots connections. Vrabel may well emerge as a candidate in Vegas if New England can't close the deal, but what about the other team from his playing days?
Coen has thrust himself into the head coaching conversation in his first year as an NFL coordinator in Tampa Bay. The Bucs' offense was tied for fourth in EPA/play during the regular season, behind only the Ravens, Bills, and Lions. The run game has been particularly impressive under Coen's watch, posting 5.3 yards per carry (T2nd) after averaging 3.4 (32nd) before his arrival last year.
Brady likely has many connections with the Bucs who would vouch for the rising star coach. That might include assistant GM John Spytek, who was a teammate of Brady's at Michigan and a personnel exec in Tampa Bay during his three-year stay. Coen and Spytek could be a strong tandem for the Raiders to build around.
New York Jets
Aaron Glenn
Let's be honest: The Jets are a dumpster fire. Ownership, by its own doing, will have a tough time selling this job to most prominent head coaching candidates. The rumored meddling from the top of the organization is only one part of the equation, as there are also some real roster concerns. Not the least of which: the Jets have no clear path to finding a quarterback after the seemingly inevitable departure of Aaron Rodgers. This organization should be looking for a leader who can establish a new culture and rebuild this thing from the ground up.
Fortunately for the Jets, one of the top candidates available in this cycle just so happens to have deep ties to the organization. Glenn spent the first eight years of his playing career in New York after joining the organization as a first-round pick in 1994. He also rejoined the club as a personnel scout for two years in 2012 before transitioning into coaching.
He's climbed the ladder in the decade since and is now a key figure for the Super Bowl-contending Lions. His defense ranks in the top 10 in EPA despite being decimated by injuries. It'll take a special person to lead the Jets back to relevance after a 14-year playoff drought. Glenn could be the man for the job and one of the few willing to give it a shot.
New Orleans Saints
Joe Brady
The Saints opening isn't an attractive job. The roster is in rough shape, and the front office is still trying to dig itself out of the nightmare cap situation created by some reckless contract management that dates back to the Sean Payton era. This is a long-term rebuild project that'll require some patience. Could a young coach with ties to the organization be more willing to take on the challenge than others?
Brady got his start in the NFL on Payton's staff from 2017-2018. His connections to the area also extend to the college ranks, where he worked with Joe Burrow as part of a legendary LSU offense in 2019. Brady's first opportunity as an NFL offensive coordinator didn't go as planned, but his stock is back on the rise after helping Josh Allen take his game to another level in Buffalo. The Saints might as well take a shot on an ascending offensive mind who can develop their next quarterback while growing into the role of head coach.
Dallas Cowboys
Mike McCarthy
The Cowboys job technically isn't open yet, as McCarthy remains under contract until Jan. 14. He's scheduled to become a free agent at that point, though, creating the possibility that Jerry Jones ends up searching for another head coach. We can't rule anything out here, but an extension still seems like the most likely scenario. That's really the only way to interpret the fact that Dallas reportedly denied Chicago's request to speak with McCarthy this week.
Could the Cowboys upgrade at head coach? Probably. But it's also not difficult to understand the case for running it back. McCarthy had put together three consecutive 12-win campaigns heading into 2024. It seemed like things were going to go off the rails when a disaster start was followed by a season-ending injury to Dak Prescott, but the undermanned Cowboys battled for their head coach down the stretch and still finished 7-10.
Remember: Jones stuck with Jason Garrett for nine seasons despite only making three playoff appearances. McCarthy will presumably get another chance to see whether he can turn some of that regular-season success into playoff glory.