Key takeaways and analysis from Wild Card Weekend

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

Not there yet

The Chargers getting blown out in Houston will understandably put the spotlight on Justin Herbert. The superstar quarterback was shockingly bad in the upset defeat, throwing four interceptions, including a backbreaking pick-6 at the end of the third quarter. We can all agree that Herbert needs to be better in that spot while also conceding that Los Angeles would've had more answers for Houston's defense were it not for some major personnel shortcomings. Both things can be true.

Fortunately for Chargers fans, there's plenty of reason to believe this latest playoff letdown isn't just a matter of this team doing what it always does. Remember, nobody expected L.A. to be back in the playoffs in Year 1 of the Jim Harbaugh era. The ceiling was evidently limited with Ladd McConkey as the only legitimate target at receiver. Adding more pass-catchers around Herbert will undoubtedly be a top priority throughout the offseason, and the front office will have over $70 million in cap space to utilize.

A deep playoff run could be in the cards as soon as next year if the Chargers can reel in a big-time free agent like Tee Higgins or a cut candidate like Davante Adams and potentially add another young playmaker early in the draft. The foundation has been set. Now, it's time to add the pieces to take things to the next level.

A defense swarms

Nobody gave the Texans much chance in the wild-card round, and who could blame them? The offense took a significant step back after C.J. Stroud's spectacular rookie season, stumbling to an AFC South title and seemingly making the No. 5 seed the most coveted non-bye position in the entire playoff picture. As always, nobody knows anything. In this case, though, we probably should have.

You know the old adage: defense wins championships. Houston's offense may have stunk it up throughout the regular season, but the defense was a different story. The Texans finished the year ranked fifth in defensive EPA, according to TruMedia's model, one spot in front of the Chargers. This group plays as fast as any unit in football, and it boasts game-changers at the most important positions. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson can wreck any game plan with the pressure they bring off the edge. Derek Stingley Jr. and rookie Kamari Lassiter have emerged as one of the league's premier cornerback tandems and combined for three interceptions against the Chargers.

The Texans will need a season-best effort from the offense to hang with the Chiefs in the divisional round, but it's worth noting that Stroud settled in nicely after a slow start against the Chargers. Carrying that momentum into Arrowhead and a repeat performance from the defense could give Houston an outside chance.

What to do with Russ?

Another one-and-done playoff appearance for the Steelers turns the conversation to the offseason ahead. What in the world does this team do at quarterback?

It's easy enough to make the case for re-signing Russell Wilson. He was better than anyone could've expected on a league-minimum salary, winning six of his first seven games. But it wasn't long before big plays down the sideline proved unsustainable, and Pittsburgh closed the season on a five-game losing streak. Overall, Wilson's 23rd-ranked EPA of 0.00 paints the picture of a quarterback who provided little added value outside the occasional moon-ball highlight.

The explosive plays are fun, and they could be even more plentiful if the Steelers add another reliable receiver opposite George Pickens. But is it wise to build your offense around an aging one-dimensional quarterback? Considering his free-agent value will probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of Baker Mayfield's $33-million yearly salary, probably not. Then again, what other options will the Steelers have?

The unstoppable force

Can anyone slow down the Ravens' run game? Baltimore's 299 rush yards, including 186 from Derrick Henry and 81 from Lamar Jackson, are the most Pittsburgh has ever given up in a playoff game. For reference, the Steelers' defense finished the regular season having allowed 4.1 yards per carry, tied for the fourth-lowest mark league-wide.

Nobody the Ravens will meet in the playoffs performed any better, though the Chiefs were one of the teams tied with Pittsburgh. The Bills, who host Baltimore in the divisional round next week, allowed 271 yards on 8.0 yards per carry when the teams met in September. The Ravens cruised to a 35-10 win.

A run game like this is tough enough to combat on its own. Add in the NFL's presumptive MVP at quarterback and a defense that ranked first in EPA/play from Week 11 through the end of the regular season, and we've got a bona fide juggernaut. The Ravens should be everyone's Super Bowl favorite at this point. Is this finally the year they get it done?

An obvious need

Denver never stood much of a chance in Buffalo. Bo Nix had a great debut season, but it's imperative that a rookie quarterback is supported with a consistent run game. Sean Payton's schematic genius wasn't enough in that department.

The Broncos cycled through running backs all year looking for a spark that never came. Overall rushing efficiency was in the middle of the pack thanks to an offensive line that led the way to a top-eight finish in yards before contact. But the running backs failed to maximize the favorable situation, finishing the season tied for 29th in yards after contact.

Javonte Williams, Tyler Badie, and Jaleel McLaughlin combined for 35 yards against the Bills, which essentially offered nothing in sustaining drives and put the game squarely on Nix's shoulders. That's a big ask with Josh Allen on the other sideline. Look for the Broncos to be aggressive in addressing their backfield needs this offseason, perhaps with an early pick in a loaded running back draft.

Mistake-free football

The other reason the Broncos didn't have much hope in Buffalo is that the Bills don't give you many opportunities to sneak up on them.

Even a matchup with the NFL's top-ranked defense by EPA couldn't throw Josh Allen off his MVP-caliber game. The Bills quarterback completed 20 of 26 passes despite being under pressure on 43.8% of dropbacks, throwing for 272 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. And so continues an incredible trend from a regular season in which the Bills coughed up a league-low six turnovers.

Efficiency and ball security, combined with some timely defensive stops, enabled Buffalo to finish the day with a 41:43-18:17 advantage in the time-of-possession battle. It's tough to beat a team that doesn't make mistakes.

Love's struggles

The Packers coming up short in Philly was primarily a result of going up against a dominant Eagles defense. But that doesn't mean we can entirely excuse the play of their $55-million quarterback.

Jordan Love struggled with accuracy and decision-making throughout the day, completing 20 of 33 passes for 212 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions. The disappointing effort follows an up-and-down season in which his true dropback reps became something of an adventure.

The official interception count there should be 14, but the point remains. Love's big-play upside does make dealing with some of the turnover issues easier. And it's possible that a Week 1 knee injury hampered his mobility and comfort in the pocket throughout the season. But the Packers have to get more out of a player they rushed to pay after a half-season of high-level production.

A concern for Philly

The Eagles are flying high. With a dominant ground game and an overwhelmingly talented defense, it's possible that nobody stops them on the road to the Super Bowl. However, the passing game still looms as a potential area of concern.

Jalen Hurts accounting for 131 yards and A.J. Brown contributing one catch on three targets do little to inspire confidence with this group looking ahead. Are we sure the Eagles can get the production they need out of the passing game if they find themselves playing from behind against a team like the Lions?

Maybe the Eagles were easing Hurts back into the lineup this week, and they could find a rhythm in a contest that calls for more pass volume next time out. But this was also an issue at multiple points in the regular season. A fast start from the Rams' offense could put Philly to the test next week.

Bowles in trouble?

It's not often a team considers a coaching change after a playoff appearance, but the Bucs might be a unique case.

Sunday's loss to the Commanders marks the second straight postseason in which Tampa Bay went out with some questionable game management. This time, Todd Bowles was late using timeouts while Washington tried to run out the clock.

Bowles is also the play-caller for Tampa Bay's defense, a once-strong unit trending in the wrong direction after finishing the regular season ranked 24th in pass EPA. The Bucs already have a logical in-house successor in Liam Coen, who's getting head coaching interest for his work as offensive coordinator. Letting Coen go would lead to Tampa Bay hiring a third OC in as many years. Opting to maintain continuity for a high-powered offense could be the move here.

No moment too big

What else is there to say about Jayden Daniels?

The Commanders rookie followed up a spectacular regular season by making it seem like his first playoff action was just another game. Daniels finished the day with 268 yards and two touchdowns through the air, joining an exclusive group of quarterbacks by winning his postseason debut.

It's further confirmation that Washington finally has its franchise quarterback, and this is only the beginning for a team that's still in the early stages of a full-scale rebuild. Next week's matchup with the Lions may be too tall a task, but Daniels and this offense could at least make it interesting.

Stock way down

We all wondered only a few weeks ago what kind of contract Sam Darnold might command in a seemingly inevitable return to Minnesota. Things change quickly in this league, don't they?

Darnold may still end up back with the Vikings as a bridge to J.J. McCarthy, but it's increasingly difficult to imagine it being on any sort of multi-year commitment. Not after he followed up a disappointing Week 18 performance with a disaster one-and-done showing in the wild-card round.

The veteran quarterback crumbled under the pressure of the Rams defense on Monday night, taking six sacks and coughing up two turnovers en route to a 24-3 deficit at the half. L.A. finished the night tying a playoff record with nine sacks. Darnold has played well more often than not this season, but there was always a lingering concern that a dream QB situation was propping him up. Disappearing in the two biggest games of the season isn't going to help him dispel those narratives.

Vindication

Sean McVay boldly decided to rest his starters in Week 18 when a win could have led to a matchup with the Commanders instead of the Vikings. Nobody is questioning that move now.

The Rams had no trouble with the 14-win Vikings on Monday night, dominating all phases of the game in a decisive victory. How much did the pseudo-bye week help them pull off the upset? We'll never know. But for a team that hadn't had a break since a Week 6 bye, it certainly couldn't have hurt.

Looking ahead, that extra rest could do wonders for a 36-year-old Matthew Stafford, a receiving corps that's battled injuries, and many others throughout the roster. The Vikings found out the hard way that this Rams team can take it to anyone when it's operating at full strength.

Stat of the week