Key takeaways and analysis from the divisional round

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

Chiefs 23 - Texans 14

Chiefs still inevitable

The Texans made a game of it, keeping the upset on the table until late in the fourth quarter, but that's never enough in Kansas City. This is what the Chiefs do. The two-time defending champs weren't especially great on either side of the ball. But as is often the case with this club, it didn't much matter. Houston became the first team in playoff history to lose despite outgaining its opponent by more than 100 yards while avoiding committing a turnover. Kansas City will need a far better effort in an AFC title matchup against Buffalo. Based on what we've seen from the two teams this season, the Chiefs should probably enter as the underdog. Yet recent history tells us that those rooting for some parity shouldn't get their hopes up.

Playoff Kelce strikes again

Travis Kelce is one of the biggest factors in the Chiefs consistently taking their game to another level in the playoffs. This was the second straight year in which the future Hall of Famer seemed to be slowing down. Kelce finished the regular season with a career-low 823 yards and three touchdowns despite leading the team with 133 targets. Perhaps he's reached a new level of veteran savviness that allows him to coast through the regular season and have a full tank when the games matter most. A crucial 49-yard catch-and-run, on which he broke multiple tackles, was his longest play of the season and his playoff career. Kelce's ninth 100-yard postseason game broke a tie with Jerry Rice for the most in NFL history, and he's not far off his records for yards and touchdowns, either.

Texans getting close

The Texans fell far short of expectations in the regular season. Blowing out the Chargers and hanging tough against the Chiefs on the road in the playoffs should be a reminder that the future is still incredibly bright in Houston. An offseason focused on addressing shortcomings on the interior offensive line and at receiver could go a long way toward getting C.J. Stroud back on the superstar path he established as a rookie. A bounce back from that group to complement a defense that finished as a top-five unit by EPA, according to TruMedia, would open the door for Houston to compete with the best of the best in a loaded AFC.

Commanders 45 - Lions 31

An all-time turnaround

The Commanders are giving hope to all kinds of sad sack organizations across the NFL. Only a year ago, a 4-13 campaign earned this team the No. 2 pick in the draft. The opportunity to select rookie phenom Jayden Daniels has undoubtedly been the driving force behind a historic one-year turnaround, but that's not the only factor. A stunning upset win over the top-seeded Lions to earn a spot in the NFC title game is also the culmination of a complete culture change after welcoming new ownership and hiring Dan Quinn. Candidates with past head coaching experience tend to get overlooked in favor of hotshot coordinators this time of year. Quinn is an excellent example of how a veteran presence can stabilize an organization, leveraging his experience to find more success in his second opportunity.

Kliff buzz on the way

Speaking of former head coaches who deserve another shot, Kliff Kingsbury should be at the top of interview lists around the league. Curiously, only two of the six teams with vacancies requested to talk with him. The Commanders offense completely outclassed the juggernaut Lions in the most shocking result of the postseason, punting only once en route to a 45-31 victory. Kingsbury has always been seen as a bright offensive mind, but a failure to adjust during his time in Arizona typically saw his units drop off down the stretch. Washington's offense only getting better against top competition in the playoffs should put those concerns to rest. Kingsbury can expect to get a few more head coaching inquiries in the coming weeks.

Campbell was right

Dan Campbell was emotional at the podium after last year's NFC title game loss to the 49ers, revealing that he told his players it "may have been their only shot." The Lions dominating the way they did this season made that seem a tad hyperbolic. Now? Not so much. Detroit will certainly be a contender in the coming seasons, but Campbell's larger point is that a Super Bowl run requires a lot of breaks to go your way. The Lions had all the pieces they needed this season, but injuries were their downfall in the end. Keeping the roster together will get more difficult year after year. And Detroit could start this offseason needing to replace two of the league's best coordinators, with Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn in the mix for head coaching jobs.

Eagles 28 - Rams 22

Hurts injury looms large

The Eagles will host the division-rival Commanders for a chance to get back to the Super Bowl after surviving the Rams in the snow. A clear talent advantage on paper and the benefit of playing in front of a home crowd should make Philly a comfortable favorite heading in. Keep an eye on Jalen Hurts' status, though. The Eagles quarterback was clearly hobbled by a knee injury in Sunday's win. He didn't miss a snap, so it probably won't put his availability at risk, but any limitations that keep him in the pocket could impact the Eagles' offense. That's unless Saquon Barkley does it all himself. After another 205 yards against the Rams, there's no reason to think he can't.

Young Eagles soaring

Complementing an elite run game with an outstanding defense gives the Eagles a real chance to be the last team standing in New Orleans. But no matter what happens this season, the Super Bowl window figures to be an extended one. Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith, a pair of 2023 first-round picks, created constant chaos up front against the Rams. The Georgia products combined for two forced fumbles and three sacks, including a crucial takedown from Carter on the game-ending drive. Add in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, who are already providing high-level cornerback play as rookies, and the Eagles' defense is flush with young blue-chip talent at all the most important positions. Howie Roseman has this group poised for long-term success.

Rams facing questions

Sean McVay and Les Snead have done a similarly impressive job of building the Rams roster of late, masterfully transitioning from an "F them picks" philosophy to becoming a team that makes the absolute most of its draft capital. The success, particularly on the defensive side, laid the foundation for a consistent contender. But this team has some questions to address. Cooper Kupp was rumored to be a trade candidate earlier this season, and the 31-year-old's diminished volume down the stretch doesn't inspire confidence about his future. And then there's Matthew Stafford. The veteran quarterback is still playing at a high level but turns 37 in February. An inevitable drop-off, or even a decision to retire, could come at any time. The Rams should be in the market for a young quarterback to plan for the future.

Bills 27 - Ravens 25

Bills find a way

Some teams simply know how to win. It wasn't exactly the prettiest effort against Baltimore - the final stat sheet is anything but spectacular - and a conservative second half allowed the Ravens to hang around longer than they should have. But none of that matters in the playoffs. The Bills are going back to the AFC title game after frustrating one of the best teams in football to no end. Most notably, the run game found a way to move the ball with consistency against a Ravens defense that had allowed a league-best 3.6 yards per carry. The defense did its part with three crucial turnovers, and Josh Allen once again kept the ball out of harm's way. Buffalo's ability to so consistently make timely plays that swing games is becoming oddly reminiscent of the Chiefs. We'll see who does it better with a Super Bowl berth on the line next week.

Deja vu for Ravens

The Ravens just can't get over the hump. The sheer difficulty of making a deep playoff run is the most reasonable take on Baltimore's latest setback, but at some point this group needs to figure out how to not give these games away. Coughing up three turnovers Sunday night in Buffalo after only having 11 all season is the ultimate letdown for a legitimately great team. Lamar Jackson simply wasn't good enough in the first half, with a pair of backbreaking giveaways adding to his playoff lowlights. A late surge put Baltimore in position to force OT, only for a wide-open Mark Andrews to drop the game-tying two-point conversion. Of course. The Ravens will likely be back in this spot next year, and another productive offseason could make them better than ever. But they'll have yet another crushing playoff disappointment hanging over their heads, and that's not going to make it any easier to get through the gauntlet of AFC juggernauts.

Agony for Andrews

Andrews' drop on the game-tying two-point conversion in the final minutes was merely another mistake in a disastrous individual outing. A brutal drop on the third drive of the game preceded a Jackson fumble that put the Bills in position to take their first lead of the night. Andrews also added a fumble of his own early in the fourth quarter, letting the ball get punched out after a big catch in Buffalo territory to end what could have been a go-ahead drive. The pair of drops equals his total from the entire regular season, and the untimely lost fumble was his first since 2019. One of the most reliable players on the team struggling in big moments is a rough addition to Baltimore's recent history of playoff disappointment.