Mahomes, Chiefs are redefining clutch performance

The inevitability of the Kansas City Chiefs has some corners of the football world running wild with conspiracy theories. How else to explain a team being so unfathomably unbeatable?

But back in reality, you don't have to look too hard to see that NFL officiating is an abomination, whether the Chiefs are playing or not. There's a more logical explanation for the emergence of a new football dynasty: This team rises to the occasion like no other.

The 2024 season has been the perfect example. It's practically impossible for a club with a plus-59 point differential - which ranked 11th in the NFL this year - to rattle off a league-best 15 wins. The Chiefs' streak of 17 consecutive one-score victories dating back to last year should be the clear sign of a team that's overdue to regress.

But this isn't just some squad surfing a wave of good fortune. The two-time defending champions have mastered the ability to be at their absolute best in the most critical plays of individual games and the most decisive moments of seasons. Their numbers redefine what it means to perform in the clutch.

3rd-down offense

Third-down success has always separated good teams from great teams. In the Chiefs' case, it illustrates a gap between the great and the otherworldly.

Kansas City has accumulated plus-864% in win probability on third-down plays alone since Patrick Mahomes first became the starter in 2018, according to Next Gen Stats. That's plus-470% more than the closest team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The superstar quarterback is, of course, the driving force. He's posted a league-best 50.4% dropback success rate on third downs since 2018, including a top-ranked 51.4% mark this season.

Mahomes also leads all quarterbacks in third-down expected points added per dropback since 2000, according to TruMedia. The gap between his top-ranked mark (0.37) and second-place performer Peyton Manning (0.25) is equal to the distance between Manning and Josh Allen (0.13), who sits in 13th. Mahomes simply will not be denied when it comes to keeping his offense on the field on money downs.

Scramble show

Mahomes' ability to make plays with his legs is key to Kansas City's success in critical situations. While he'll never be confused with some of the more dynamic runners at the position, his savviness and sneaky athleticism make him one of the most frustrating players to defend in a scramble drill. And it seems like he's only getting better with age.

Mahomes posted a 75.7% scramble success rate during the regular season, which was tops among all quarterbacks with at least 30 such plays, according to TruMedia. (TruMedia measures a play as being successful if it gains at least 50% of yards to the sticks on first and second down and 100% on third and fourth down.)

The Bills understand Mahomes' threat all too well after falling to 0-4 against the Chiefs in the playoffs in the last five seasons. This time around, Mahomes ran for a career-high six first downs on six attempts and recorded his first two-touchdown rushing performance.

Locking up all the Chiefs' receivers and collapsing the pocket, only to have Mahomes take off and casually dipsy doodle around multiple defenders for a first down, is a uniquely demoralizing outcome for an opposing defense.

Playoff mode

The Chiefs' clutch performances in the regular season are only a taste of what's to come when the lights are at their brightest.

Mahomes leads all playoff quarterbacks in EPA/dropback since 2000 (minimum seven starts) with a mark of 0.23, according to TruMedia. He's producing at a rate of 0.33 in this season's two games.

The offense doesn't do it alone, though; Steve Spagnuolo's defense also has a knack for stepping up. The veteran coordinator's blitz packages can fluster even the best opposing quarterbacks - Josh Allen was pressured on 45.9% of dropbacks in the AFC title game, completing 5 of 14 passes. Chris Jones led the charge with a 24.2% pressure rate, his best mark since Week 5, according to TruMedia and PFF.

Looking ahead to the Super Bowl, the Eagles clearly have the better roster. Maybe that ends up being enough to spoil the three-peat. But there's a reason the Chiefs are the team to beat despite the tale of the tape.

It's taken Mahomes seven seasons as a starter to become the second-winningest quarterback in NFL playoff history. He's still got a ways to go to catch Tom Brady in that department, but becoming the first QB to start five Super Bowls before the age of 30, with a chance to win four, puts him on a pace that used to be unthinkable.

The Eagles had better find a way to capitalize on their talent advantage and leave no doubt. If this Super Bowl comes down to whether the Chiefs can make a play at the end, only one outcome seems possible.