Don't let the Ravens sneak into the playoffs

It's been an exceptionally strange season in the AFC, where the presumptive top dogs either look more beatable than ever or have already tumbled out of the playoff race.

The result is a postseason field filled with fresh blood and, by extension, a collection of teams that all seem equally capable of going to the Super Bowl. For the first time in recent memory, it really does feel like anyone's conference.

The last thing the current contenders want is a potential spoiler in the mix, so they'll be hoping the Ravens don't beat the Steelers for the AFC North crown Sunday night.

Yes, I've been wrong about the Ravens before, and they're 8-8. Their level of play this season gives us pretty much no reason to believe that they'd be competitive in the playoffs. They're right up there with the Chiefs in terms of colossal disappointments. The offense has fallen off a cliff after last year's historic output, ranking 12th in EPA/play, according to TruMedia. And that's not solely a product of Lamar Jackson missing some time with injury.

Baltimore is 6-6 in the superstar quarterback's 12 starts. After leading the league with 0.31 EPA/dropback last season - the highest output from any passer since his first of two MVP campaigns in 2019 - Jackson is putting up just 0.02 EPA/dropback so far this year, tied for 21st with rookies Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough.

It's a staggering decline. It feels like the offense is simply broken. Maybe it is - changes are undoubtedly on the way if the Ravens' season ends Sunday night. But if there's one sleeping giant capable of waking up at the right time and humbling all these new kids on the block, it still might be Baltimore.

All the talent from last year's juggernaut remains in place. And remember, Jackson began this season looking like an even better version of the unstoppable quarterback we saw in 2024. He'd thrown for nine touchdowns, no interceptions, and a near-perfect 141.8 passer rating through three weeks as the Ravens posted a league-best 37 points per game.

But then he injured his hamstring in Kansas City. Jackson wasn't himself in the two months that followed his return to action in Week 9, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken recently revealed that the hamstring is just one of many physical issues the quarterback has battled throughout the year.

The back contusion that kept him out of the season-saving win over the Packers threatened to further complicate that outlook, but Jackson is on track to play in Pittsburgh. If this latest injury is already in the rearview mirror - Jackson has been a full participant in practice - could the week of rest turn out to be a blessing in disguise?

A slightly healthier version of Jackson on Sunday night, and potentially in the weeks to come, could be a game-changer, giving this unit a chance to look like the unstoppable force we saw last year and in September. And he's not going to have to do it alone.

When the Ravens found themselves in a must-win spot without their star quarterback in Green Bay, they had no choice but to overcorrect for some of Derrick Henry's occasionally bizarre usage patterns. The future Hall of Famer showed he's still a nightmare to tackle, putting the offense on his back with 216 yards and four touchdowns on a career-high 36 carries. We're guessing the Ravens won't get cute with his workload from here on out.

Keep an eye on Baltimore's defense, too. While the unit once again stumbled out of the gate this year, effectively wasting that high-flying start on the other side of the ball, it's mitigated those issues by once again changing Kyle Hamilton's role. The Ravens' defense is tied for fourth in EPA/play since shifting the NFL's premier safety into a role closer to the line of scrimmage in Week 6. Shutting out the Bengals on Dec. 14 was the clearest sign yet that this group was rounding into form.

If that trend holds, and the offense can take a few meaningful steps back in the right direction, Baltimore quickly becomes the kind of opponent that nobody wants to face in January. In an AFC playoff picture where every team appears equally flawed, the most talented group of the bunch should not be overlooked.

The Bills will be a popular pick with neither Patrick Mahomes nor Joe Burrow standing in the way of Josh Allen's first trip to the Super Bowl. Running into Baltimore at some point could pose a problem, though; the Ravens are uniquely equipped to stifle the only consistent part of Buffalo's offense, ranking first in EPA/rush since Week 6. And if you thought Henry had a great outing against the Packers, just wait until he gets a Bills defense that's been helpless in the ground game - only the Giants have been worse by EPA.

Baltimore's suffocating run defense would also be a critical factor in potential matchups with the Broncos, Jaguars, Texans, and Chargers. How might Bo Nix and Trevor Lawrence fare if consistently forced into obvious passing situations? In the case of Houston and Los Angeles, would those offensive lines be able to give their quarterbacks a chance?

As for the upstart Patriots, we only have to go back two weeks to find evidence that Baltimore can trade blows with one of the NFL's hottest teams. The Ravens took a two-score lead early in the fourth quarter despite having lost Jackson at the end of the first half. Were it not for a strange decision to turn away from Henry in a game where he was averaging 7.1 yards per carry, they might have been able to hold off New England's comeback.

The Ravens may not deserve a postseason spot, but a toothless division has given them one last chance to sneak in. And if they do get there, they'll be as dangerous as anyone else in the wide-open AFC.

Flipping the script on years past by disappointing early and then taking flight when the games actually matter would be a fitting way for the Ravens to cap off this wildly unpredictable season.

Dan Wilkins is theScore's senior NFL writer.