3 matchups that will decide Super Bowl LX

While nobody could have anticipated a Super Bowl matchup between the Seahawks and Patriots at the beginning of this season, it's a fitting finale given the way these teams performed throughout the year. Seattle, arguably the most complete team in football, enters as a considerable favorite. But New England is very much a threat to add yet another ring to its collection.

Here are three matchups that could swing the final result one way or the other.

Patriots' OL vs. Seahawks' DL

The Patriots' offense was nearly unstoppable throughout the regular season, tying the Rams for the league lead at 3.1 points per drive with an outcome, according to TruMedia. Drake Maye's breakout was the driving force. The sophomore sensation paced all quarterbacks with 0.28 EPA/dropback. For reference, Tom Brady topped that mark only twice in his Hall of Fame career.

It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing in the postseason, though. New England's per-drive scoring efficiency was slashed in half over the last three games, and Maye is 10th among playoff quarterbacks with minus-0.12 EPA/dropback. Over a season-long sample, that level of output would have fallen right between Geno Smith and J.J. McCarthy for 32nd among qualified passers.

To be clear, that's not an indictment of Maye. The Patriots quarterback simply hasn't had much of a chance - his offensive line's gotten worked in matchups against the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos. The struggling group has given up five sacks in each of those games, putting Maye four shy of matching Joe Burrow's unenviable record in a single playoff run. Unfortunately for New England, pass protection won't get any easier in the biggest game of them all.

The Seahawks' defense is pressuring opposing quarterbacks at a 42.7% clip during the playoffs despite blitzing on just 12% of dropbacks. That's a continuation of what we saw in the regular season, where Seattle was a top-six team in pressure rate while tying for 23rd in blitz frequency. In other words, the Seahawks rarely send extra rushers because they don't need to. A front four featuring DeMarcus Lawrence, Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, and Uchenna Nwosu, among other impact rotational pieces, has been more than enough to overwhelm opposing offensive lines.

The Patriots' chances of pulling off the upset will be significantly better if they can hold their own in the trenches. That largely relies on rookie left tackle Will Campbell, who's allowed three sacks and 11 pressures in three playoff games after making a late-season return from his knee injury. Will he be more capable of limiting Lawrence and Nwosu on the edge after getting some extra rest on the bye week? If not, it may be difficult for New England to find time for the downfield shots that powered this offense all season.

Sam Darnold vs. pressure

Sam Darnold is one game away from completing an all-time redemption arc. A good chunk of the football world probably still has a tough time wrapping their heads around the idea of a former draft bust becoming a legitimate Super Bowl quarterback, but this is no fluke. His late-career breakout was - and remains - very real.

That said, Darnold represents the Patriots' best opportunity to steal this game. Although he emerged as one of the NFL's best vertical passers this season, the veteran still has a penchant for giving the ball away. Darnold accounted for a league-worst 20 turnovers during the regular season. His 14 interceptions, third behind only Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa, are the most he's thrown since his rookie campaign in 2018.

The New England defense should have plenty of opportunities to force him into mistakes. While Seattle remained committed to the ground game all year, ranking third in run rate in 2025, it yielded mostly middling results: The Seahawks finished as a bottom-five team in rush success rate. And the Patriots' defense has dominated the line of scrimmage since Milton Williams' return, posting a 60.3% rush success rate in the playoffs. That clears Tampa Bay's league-best mark from the regular season.

If those trends hold, Darnold might have to play hero. His NFC title game performance against the Rams - whose defense had forced him into eight turnovers over the previous three meetings - should eliminate any doubt about his ability to rise to the occasion. Darnold punched the Seahawks' ticket to the Super Bowl with a career-best outing, throwing for 346 yards and three scores - all of them under pressure. But after tying for 24th in EPA/dropback against pressure in the regular season, the Patriots will be eager to see if they can bring him back to earth.

New England has ratcheted up the chaos throughout the playoffs, blitzing opponents on 39.8% of dropbacks. That's meaningfully higher than the team's 27.2% rate in the regular season. Those strategic adjustments have produced spectacular results: The Patriots lead all playoff teams in both pressure rate (51.9%) and turnovers (eight). If Darnold can once again avoid costly errors, he'll likely put the Seahawks in position to come away with their second Super Bowl title. In a tightly contested defensive battle, though, one timely takeaway could open the door just enough for the underdogs.

The return game

We should probably expect a close, low-scoring game given the way these defenses have been playing. With that in mind, don't be surprised if a big play on special teams ends up being the deciding factor.

Seattle appears to hold the advantage in that underrated area of the game, having finished the regular season ranked third in special teams EPA. The main factors in that output: The Seahawks led the league in opponent starting field position after kickoffs, ranked third in their own starting field position after kickoffs, and produced a top-three mark in yards per punt return.

And they did that without adding Rashid Shaheed until the trade deadline. As we saw on the opening kick of the divisional round - and twice in his nine regular-season games with the Seahawks - the dynamic return man is always a threat to score. It goes without saying that New England has to find a way to keep him under wraps. But the Patriots will also have opportunities to make game-changing plays of their own.

Seattle's special teams prowess didn't extend to punt coverage: Only the Rams fared worse than the Seahawks' 15.5-yard average return. New England is uniquely equipped to capitalize on this relative weak spot, having finished the year with 17.3 yards per punt return - the best of any team since 2019. Marcus Jones earned second-team All-Pro honors for his contributions on that front, including touchdown returns of 87 and 94 yards.

We haven't seen a special teams touchdown in a Super Bowl since Percy Harvin with the Seahawks at the end of the 2013 season. If this is the year the drought ends, it may well determine which team raises the Lombardi Trophy.

Dan Wilkins is theScore's senior NFL writer.