Key takeaways and analysis from Wild Card Weekend

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

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Monday game

Defense as advertised

It's been clear for a while now that the Texans won't need much from their offense to go on a Super Bowl run. That theory was tested in a big way Monday night, with C.J. Stroud doing just about everything he could to give this one away - Houston's quarterback served up three turnovers while tying a dubious playoff record with five fumbles. And yet it wasn't even close to swinging this game in the direction of the home side. That's how good this team is on defense.

A painfully mediocre Pittsburgh offense isn't exactly the best measuring stick. But the Texans' defense gave up just six points and outscored the Steelers with a pair of touchdowns, issuing one heck of a statement to start these playoffs. Houston's 0.51 EPA/play on defense marks the best single-game playoff performance since 2006, according to TruMedia. If the offense can cut down on the mistakes and deliver anything close to average scoring production, there's no reason this team can't roll right through the AFC en route to its first-ever appearance on football's biggest stage.

Is that it for Rodgers?

Aaron Rodgers has been pretty forthcoming about this likely being the last year of his decorated career. The future Hall of Famer could always change his mind after getting his first taste of playoff action since 2021 - there were certainly times this season where it appeared he had more left in the tank than most anticipated. But considering the way it ended, with the 42-year-old recording the worst single-game playoff performance by EPA/dropback since Kerry Collins in the 2000 Super Bowl at minus-0.71, his future in Pittsburgh shouldn't be up to him.

It's not the best year to be on the hunt for a quarterback, and this organization does have a reputation for being conservative. With that in mind, perhaps nothing should surprise us. But it's time to take a swing on a potential long-term solution at the position. Maybe Ty Simpson falls to the back half of the first round and the Steelers aim to correct the apparent mistake of passing on Jaxson Dart last year. Buying low on Kyler Murray could also be an option, and Malik Willis might be worth a look as a late-breakout starter in free agency. Either way, the quarterback position is the most obvious area for turnover after Pittsburgh's seventh straight playoff loss. We'll see if that continued run of disappointment also leads to some changes on the coaching staff.

Collins injury looms large

As low as the bar may be for the Texans' offense, Stroud not having his top receiver would present some major challenges next week against the Patriots. Nico Collins was carted to the locker room after suffering a concussion Monday night. Clearing protocol inside of a week is tough enough as it is. With the Texans facing a short turnaround coming out of Monday night, one would have to assume that there's a real chance he doesn't suit up Sunday in New England.

Collins' absence would make it all the more imperative for the Texans to avoid forcing the issue in the passing game. The blowout win in Pittsburgh could have been even more lopsided had the offensive staff leaned more heavily on a run game tying its second-best performance of the year in rush success rate (54.5%). Grinding it out with Woody Marks and Nick Chubb, who combined for 160 yards on 19 carries, would be the best way to manage the game against a Patriots defense that finished the year ranked 31st by that same metric.

Sunday games

Vrabel's defense shines

A new-look offense has been generating the majority of the attention in New England, and understandably so. That's just the way things work when you've got a sophomore quarterback spearheading a monumental one-year turnaround with an MVP-caliber breakout. But the defense leading the way to the club's first playoff win since 2018 is a reminder that Mike Vrabel is in the process of building something pretty special on the other side of the ball, too.

With the Patriots finishing the regular season tied for 20th in sack rate, I wondered whether this might prove to be a semi-favorable matchup for a battered Chargers offensive line. Vrabel would allow for no such thing, ramping up his blitz usage to churn out six sacks on 30 pressures, according to PFF. Those pressure numbers match the single-game high from any team in the league this season.

The Patriots reaching this level on both sides of the ball in the first year of this new era bodes incredibly well for the future - just think about what it could all look like with another offseason or two to continue building. But that's a topic for a few months down the road. The foundation has been laid in such a way that this team is ready to compete for a championship right now. All those conversations about the Patriots benefitting from an easy schedule will look pretty silly if they end up rolling right through the AFC.

Herbert takes a beating

The sad state of the Chargers' offensive line has been a running storyline for the better part of this season. The beleaguered group, which predictably fell off a cliff after Joe Alt joined Rashawn Slater on injured reserve, surrendered a league-worst 138 quarterback hits throughout the regular season. It was a similar outcome against New England's blitz-heavy game plan Sunday night, with missed blocks and blown assignments leading to Justin Herbert taking a beating. And with Greg Roman's scheme seemingly not providing any sort of easy answers against pressure looks, you can probably add an offensive coordinator to this team's list of offseason needs.

All of that can be true while we acknowledge the fact that Justin Herbert also wasn't good enough. I've been a Herbert truther for a while now, convinced that it's only a matter of time before a quarterback with his kind of talent dispels narratives about him not shining when it matters most. Those arguments are becoming increasingly difficult to defend. Herbert is now 0-3 since making his playoff debut in 2023, and he ranks 22nd out of 22 qualified playoff passers over that stretch with minus-0.41 EPA/dropback. For reference, that's worse than J.J. McCarthy's minus-0.34 over a historically bad six-game sample to start his career.

Again, I think Herbert gets there at some point. And the Chargers upgrading at offensive coordinator would undoubtedly help. At some point, though, you'd like to see the supremely talented, $52.5-million quarterback rise up and elevate his team at this time of year. Six seasons in, we're still waiting.

Minter a coach to watch

The Chargers' defense holding Drake Maye and the Patriots to a season-low 40% pass success rate is bound to get lost in the final result. While the offense was unable to capitalize, Jesse Minter's group did everything it could to limit one of the league's most efficient scoring attacks. Unfortunately for the Chargers, the impressive performance could very well be the cherry on top of a head coaching resume that sets the stage for his exit.

Minter will now be free to speak to teams about any of the available jobs, and you can bet he'll be requested for at least a handful of interviews over the next week or so. Having followed a similar path to Mike Macdonald - working together in Baltimore, coordinating a strong defense at Michigan, and then doing the same back in the NFL - teams will wisely want to see whether Minter might be able to replicate the success of the Seahawks' head coach in a lead job of his own. Considering the way his defenses have performed regardless of personnel, tying for sixth in EPA/play and ranking eighth in success rate over two years in Los Angeles, it's a logical bet to make.

Coaching wins out

The 49ers have been overcoming one key loss after the other all season long. George Kittle going down with an Achilles injury in the first half against the Eagles added yet another chapter to that nightmare storyline, further widening the talent gap between San Francisco and the defending champs. The 49ers coming away with the win anyway is a reminder that games aren't played on paper. An equally substantial gap in coaching chops leveled the playing field and set the stage for an upset.

Kyle Shanahan was able to work around a pair of brutal Brock Purdy interceptions in pushing all the right buttons to attack an elite Eagles defense. That often involved zeroing in on the safeties, perhaps the only weak link on the field. One such example, a perfectly timed trick-play touchdown early in the fourth quarter, felt like the turning point. San Francisco managed a 54.5% pass success rate without Kittle and Ricky Pearsall, the best mark any team has posted against Philly since 2023. Robert Saleh was equally impressive at the controls of a patchwork 49ers defense, further cementing his case for a second chance at a head coaching job.

Vic Fangio remains one of the best coordinators in football, but the Eagles were always playing with fire expecting his defense alone to compensate for a stagnant offense. Kevin Patullo's unit looked no different than it did throughout the regular season, allowing a depleted 49ers defense to post a 63.9% success rate in the passing game, its best mark of the season. And with Philly facing a critical fourth-and-11 with just 43 seconds to play, Nick Sirianni ensured the Eagles wouldn't have a chance to get the ball back if they failed by using the first of his three timeouts. The better coached team is moving on to the divisional round. As for the other? Well ...

Big changes on the way

Change seems inevitable for the Eagles' coaching staff. Most importantly, there is simply no world in which the offense should be allowed to run it back after such a disappointing year. You'd be hard-pressed to come up with a better example of a unit wasting talent. The changes will likely start with Patullo. The question is whether they go even higher than that.

For the record, I'm not necessarily advocating for Sirianni to be fired. It hasn't even been a full calendar year since he led the Eagles to a Super Bowl, and he's got the best regular-season winning percentage among all active coaches at .694. That incredible mark also puts him in the top five all-time (minimum 50 games). It's tough to ask for much more than that. But the standard is high in Philly, and this is the second time that one of Sirianni's OC hires has been a spectacular flop.

Maybe Howie Roseman steps in again, as many believe he did with the Kellen Moore and Fangio hires. He might have to if Sirianni stays. But at a certain point, a head coach who comes from an offensive background has to bear some responsibility for the calamity that's being run out on that side of the ball. Even with a Super Bowl under his belt, the Eagles have to ask themselves whether Sirianni is the one to maximize this championship window in the years ahead. If not, you make the difficult decision. And with John Harbaugh looking for a soft landing after being shown the door in Baltimore, there's a clear upgrade to be had on the open market. It's worth noting that Harbaugh has some history with the Eagles organization, having risen up the coaching ranks as the special teams coordinator during the Andy Reid years. In the off chance that Philly makes a change, nobody should be surprised if the pivot move is a high-profile reunion.

The ultimate warrior

I'm running out of ways to describe Josh Allen. There's been a lot of talk about how this year is his best opportunity to reach the Super Bowl with other superstar quarterbacks missing out on the playoffs. The way I saw it heading in, any such narrative was conveniently overlooking the fact that this is quite easily the worst Bills team he's had around him since first breaking out in 2019. The run defense is beyond helpless (more on that below), and Allen has been getting little-to-no help from an underwhelming receiving corps. He didn't have much support from a typically strong run game against the Jaguars, either.

Allen, who has been battling through a foot injury since Week 16, also found himself in the medical tent twice in the first half of this game - the first trip for a concussion check, the second after hurting his knee. All those factors stacking up would lead to any mortal having to accept that this just wasn't going to be the year. Fortunately for the Bills, Allen is superhuman. Football discourse should never be reduced to a battle of quarterbacks - there's just so much more at play in the ultimate team sport. At the same time, can you really blame anyone for simplifying it in such a way when there's a player out there who single-handedly tips the scales to this degree? The Bills have a real chance to chase down their first Super Bowl title because their quarterback is the most unstoppable player on the planet. It would be oddly fitting if this deeply flawed team is the one that finally gets over the hump.

Questions for Coen

I was one of many who confidently picked the Jaguars to advance to the divisional round. After the way they closed out the regular season, with a revitalized Trevor Lawrence leading the way to eight straight wins, I thought it was pretty clear they were the better team. Perhaps the new kids on the block were always bound to be done in by some Allen heroics - I really can't discount that possibility. But it's also fair to say that Jacksonville let an opportunity slip away.

Running the ball has been the best way to beat the Bills all year. The Jaguars were having no trouble exposing that flaw in this game, with Travis Etienne putting up 67 yards on 10 carries and Bhayshul Tuten recording 51 yards on his four attempts. In total, Jacksonville enjoyed a 66.7% success rate on running back carries. That's tied for the highest single-game playoff rate since 2006. The problem? There wasn't nearly enough volume to swing this matchup. Liam Coen acknowledged the need to get back to running the ball during a sideline interview coming out of halftime, but nothing really changed. Etienne saw just seven carries in the second half while Tuten had none. In a game where Trevor Lawrence consistently found himself throwing into tight windows downfield, Coen will be kicking himself over abandoning such an obvious path to victory.

A favorable path?

I've got one more point on the Buffalo run defense. And for any Bills fans who are tired of hearing about it, I should note that this one might be a positive.

We know this unit is a problem. And with standout defensive Ed Oliver suffering a knee injury while rehabbing his torn biceps, there may not be any reinforcements on the way. But looking ahead to the path through the AFC, it's not like they're going to face many teams built to gash them on the ground. The Broncos, Patriots, and Texans finished the regular season ranked 23rd, 24th, and 29th in EPA/rush, respectively.

The rub here is that Jacksonville was made to look unstoppable on the ground despite ranking 31st in both EPA/rush and rush success rate since Week 10. With that in mind, it seems possible that this Bills run defense could very well be shredded by any opponent. But they really couldn't ask for better potential matchups in this area over the next two weeks. After years of heartbreak, is everything finally coming up Buffalo?

Saturday games

Just the beginning

What a difference a year makes. Bears fans couldn't have had much fun watching the unmitigated disaster that took shape in Caleb Williams' rookie season. Given this organization's rough history with quarterbacks, there had to be some level of concern that they were about to waste a generational talent at the position. Fortunately for Chicago, one benefit of having such a player is that you can suddenly find yourself with one of the most attractive coaching jobs in football.

The Bears being the team to pry Ben Johnson out of Detroit has set this organization on a path to regular Super Bowl contention. They might not get there this year, as the defense could still use another offseason to build toward Dennis Allen's vision. But Saturday night's incredible comeback - erasing a 21-3 halftime lead - demonstrated that this offense is already well on its way to becoming everything we thought possible when Johnson and Williams joined forces. It's scary to think about what this unit could look like a few years from now.

LaFleur's future

Matt LaFleur's name has come up more often than one might expect as league insiders report on this year's coaching cycle. It's tough to imagine that the Packers would actually consider moving on from a coach who's posted a 76-40-1 record over his first seven seasons and led his team to the playoffs every year but one. Perhaps it proves to be nothing more than some public posturing with extension talks just around the corner.

If the organization was the least bit uncertain looking ahead to the last year of LaFleur's contract, though, Saturday night's loss isn't going to help his case. The Packers blowing a commanding lead against a division rival is a devastating way for their season to come to an end. Prior to this game, NFL teams were 158-3 when entering the fourth quarter of a playoff game ahead by at least 15 points. LaFleur's offense stalling out in the second half was a big part of the collapse. Some game management blunders left the Packers short on timeouts on their final drive, too. I'm not making the case for LaFleur to be fired - I think he'd immediately become the best candidate on the market - but it at least seems possible that there could be another major twist in an already chaotic coaching carousel.

No doubt now

Williams had plenty of astonishing moments throughout the regular season, so this really shouldn't be anything new. But we know how quarterback discourse works. Critics are always looking to poke holes in a rising star's game, and Williams finishing the year last among full-time starters with a 58.1% completion rate offered box-score hunters some juicy narratives. But how many of the quarterbacks above him can make throws like this?

The incredible comeback doesn't happen if not for Williams' superhuman effort on a fourth-and-8 while trailing by 11 late in the fourth quarter. Would the Bears like their quarterback to complete passes at a higher rate? Of course. Those efficiency numbers should tick up in time. But as long as the misses aren't backbreaking turnovers - Williams had just seven interceptions in the regular season - who wouldn't trade a few misfires for this kind of game-changing skill set? His ability to make things happen when a play breaks down is right up there with the best quarterbacks in football. Give him another year to fine tune the rest of his game under Johnson's guidance, and Williams could very well be in that conversation across the board.

A star in the making

Surrounding Williams with an elite coaching staff was just one part of the effort to get this franchise headed in the right direction. While previous years under general manager Ryan Poles had been a bit of an adventure with roster management, a critical first offseason with Johnson in the building couldn't have gone much better. Selecting Colston Loveland in the first round of the draft is proving to be one particularly impactful stroke of genius.

I had Loveland as my No. 1 tight end in April. That was a bit of a unique take, with much of the football world favoring Tyler Warren. But this is the upside I saw in his game coming out of Michigan. Loveland came on strong after injuries led to a slow start, ranking second only to Kyle Pitts among tight ends with 597 yards from Week 9 through the end of the regular season. His six touchdowns over that stretch were fourth at the position. Loveland effectively emerging as the Bears' No. 1 receiver in the biggest game of the season - eight catches for 137 yards on 15 targets - really says it all. Chicago having one of the best tight ends in football for the next decade could be a cheat code in this offense.

Rams survive a scare

Nobody was giving the Panthers much of a chance heading into this weekend's wild-card opener. Part of that was a product of the NFC South champs becoming only the seventh team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a losing record. The other was the fact that the Rams were arguably the best team in football for much of the regular season. The defense had fallen off quite a bit by the end of the year, though, going from first in EPA/play from Weeks 1-9 to tied for 13th from Weeks 10-18. Those issues, evidently, aren't going away in the playoffs.

While the Rams can score with anyone, teams are now routinely finding ways to expose a weakness at cornerback - Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker combined for 215 of Carolina's 264 receiving yards. Chris Shula will have to find a way to dial up some consistent pressure if the Rams are going to hide that group and remain in the hunt for a Super Bowl. The effort we saw this week won't fly against the top competition in the NFC.

Stafford banged up?

The defense wasn't the only reason Los Angeles had to sweat this one out, as Sean McVay's offense also had its share of struggles. Some of those hiccups were schematic, with the Rams being a little too stubborn when it came to attacking a stout tandem of Panthers corners. As spectacular as Puka Nacua and Davante Adams may be, the star duo combining for 31 of 42 targets was a bit of a departure from the heavy tight end usage that's been so critical to this offense's success.

McVay had made the necessary adjustments by the end of the game, so this isn't anything to worry about heading into next week. Stafford's injury status will be worth monitoring, though. The veteran quarterback was clearly uncomfortable after hitting his throwing hand on the arm of a defender while following through on a pass. He was able to work through the issue just fine at the end of the game, capping a picture-perfect drive with a 19-yard strike to Colby Parkinson for the win, but it sure seemed like his typical pinpoint accuracy was affected for an extended stretch beforehand.

Special teams matter

I don't want to pick apart the Rams too much here. They did get the win, after all. At this time of year, that's really all that matters. But yet another special teams blunder nearly cost them their season, as a blocked punt handed Carolina a short field to take the lead late in the fourth quarter.

The Rams were spectacularly bad in this underrated phase of the game throughout the first 16 weeks of the regular season, ranking last in special teams EPA when McVay made the decision to dismiss third-year coordinator Chase Blackburn. With the defense trending in the wrong direction, Los Angeles can't afford any more of these gaffes.

Respect to Carolina

OK, we get it. The Rams nearly let one get away from them. But let's also give credit where it's due. The Panthers rose to the occasion and simply obliterated any expectations there could have been for this team coming off a roller coaster of a regular season.

Perhaps we should have seen it coming - it was only six weeks ago that Carolina stunned this same Los Angeles team for one of the biggest upsets of the year. But nothing about that result, swung by a few big turnovers, seemed all that sustainable. This was the more impressive performance, with Bryce Young stepping up in several big moments and the Panthers' defense frustrating Stafford and Co. until the very end. Carolina holding its own against a top Super Bowl contender in the playoffs is an encouraging way to head into the offseason, potentially setting the stage for this team to take another meaningful step forward in 2026.

Coker dazzles in defeat

I had the Panthers taking a receiver in my post regular-season mock draft. After an inconsistent year for the offense, it felt like they could really use a long-term running mate for Tetairoa McMillan. I still wouldn't be against such a move - teams can never have enough playmakers - but calling it a glaring need may have been a little disrespectful to a hidden gem already on the roster.

Jalen Coker was outstanding as Bryce Young's top option in the passing game, turning his 12 targets into nine catches for 134 yards and a go-ahead touchdown in the clutch. The former undrafted free agent capping a promising sophomore campaign with a performance like this should give him every opportunity to establish himself as the No. 2 receiver heading into next season.

Dan Wilkins is theScore's senior NFL writer.