Key takeaways and analysis from the divisional round
Playoff Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.
The team to beat
Anything can happen in a single-elimination playoff format, so I won't overreact to one dominant outing by making any bold predictions about who I expect to be the last team standing next month in Santa Clara. The best team doesn't always win the Super Bowl. If that were the case, though, you could go ahead and pencil in the Seahawks right now.
Seattle's second season under Mike Macdonald didn't get off to the best of starts, and a soft second-half schedule probably left some wondering whether this team truly had what it takes to roll through the NFC playoffs. But a Week 16 win over the Rams was something of a statement in that regard, with Sam Darnold and the offense bouncing back from a disastrous outing in their previous matchup to edge L.A. in a shootout. And the Seahawks have seemingly only gotten better since.
Macdonald's defense put the clamps on Kyle Shanahan with the No. 1 seed up for grabs in Week 18, allowing just three points in the win. Seattle's 0.36 EPA/play in that game was, at the time, the best mark any team had recorded against a hyper-efficient 49ers offense this year. The Seahawks then exceeded that output (0.43 EPA/play) in Saturday's 41-6 beatdown. The key: winning the line of scrimmage in such a way that Brock Purdy, according to the Fox broadcast, traveled 413 yards on his 33 dropbacks. This is undoubtedly the kind of defense that could single-handedly lead a team all the way to the Super Bowl.
The challenge becomes even more daunting for opponents when the defense isn't doing it alone. While much of the offensive contributions have come courtesy of a big-play passing game, a previously inconsistent run game also offered some promising signs coming out of last week's bye. Perhaps it's merely a result of a matchup with a beat-up 49ers defense, but the Seahawks have to be ecstatic with Kenneth Walker putting up 116 yards and three touchdowns on 19 carries. If they've suddenly found a way to round out the offense with a touch more consistency on the ground, there might be no stopping this team from chasing down the ultimate prize.
Out of magic
The 49ers overcoming everything they did to get to this point made for an incredible story. A ridiculous run of injuries on both sides of the ball should have been enough to end their season in the first round of the playoffs, if not before. But San Francisco was in contention for the No. 1 seed right up until the final week of the season, and a wild-card win over the Eagles demonstrated the coaching advantage this team holds over most others in the league. Unfortunately, that only gets you so far with a roster decimated by injuries.
The offense was always going to have to carry the load with the defense missing a pair of perennial All-Pros in Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. But the chances of that happening were effectively wiped out last week when George Kittle joined the list of injured superstars with a torn Achilles. That crushing blow left Brock Purdy without his most reliable target and, just as importantly, removed one of the NFL's best in-line blocking tight ends from a run game already struggling - not exactly a recipe for success against the Seahawks' defense. The 49ers have some work to do on the roster, particularly when it comes to bolstering the defense. But weathering the storm throughout this season, and coming within one game of yet another NFC title game, was an important reminder that this team will almost always be in the mix with Kyle Shanahan at the helm.
Crisis averted
The Seahawks got a bit of a scare at Thursday’s practice when Sam Darnold was added to the injury report with an oblique issue. And when word circulated that he hadn’t even throw a ball between then and Saturday, there had to be some panic among fans. Well, crisis averted. Darnold didn’t have to do much in the blowout win over the 49ers, but he didn’t look the least bit limited.
Oblique injuries can be tricky, so this may well be something that he has to manage for the rest of the season. But the veteran quarterback completing 12 of 17 passes for 124 yards and a score two days after the initial tweak suggests it probably isn’t something to worry about looking ahead to next week and potentially Super Bowl LV.
Nix delivers before heartbreak
If you had told me heading into this game that the Broncos would be putting the ball almost exclusively in the hands of Bo Nix, I would have guessed that the AFC's No. 1 seed was going to be one-and-done. This passing attack had been far too inconsistent to trust in a big spot, and it was just last week that the Jaguars showed the world the consequences of not exposing a porous Bills run defense. That evidently wasn't Sean Payton's takeaway from the wild-card matchup, as his running backs saw just 10 carries in Saturday's divisional-round opener.
Fortunately for the Broncos, they didn't have to pay the same price as Jacksonville. That's because Nix stepped up pretty much whenever they needed him to make a play. On the first touchdown drive, it was a bullet up the seam to Marvin Mims. Then came the 29-yard touchdown to Lil'Jordan Humphrey with 22 seconds left before halftime. He also made two massive throws on a go-ahead touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter - a 25-yard strike to Courtland Sutton on a critical third-and-11, and a dime to Mims for the score four plays later.
It was the kind of performance that, for all his inconsistencies, created a feeling that the Broncos might just have everything they need to win a Super Bowl. And then came the stunning post-game announcement from Payton: Nix will miss the rest of the playoffs after suffering a broken bone in his ankle on the second-last offensive play of the game. That leaves Denver turning to Jarrett Stidham for the fifth start of his seven-year career with the AFC title on the line next week.
Perhaps Payton can find a run game and scheme things up well enough for his relatively inexperienced backup to keep the offense afloat. Assuming the Broncos get a bounce-back performance from the defense, they may not need much. But it's exceedingly difficult to shake the feeling that getting two more wins has suddenly become an impossible task.
More devastation for Bills
There's going to be a lot of talk about the controversial play in overtime, where the Broncos were awarded an interception on a deep ball to Brandin Cooks. Personally, I think officials made the right call. Freeze frames will make it look like Cooks was down with possession before having it ripped away by Ja'Quan McMillian, but the rules state that the receiver also needs to survive the ground to complete a catch. The more egregious call, to me, was the 17-yard pass interference that put the Broncos in field-goal range four plays later. But the Bills were going to be penalized 15 yards anyway, as Joey Bosa was also flagged for roughing the passer. And for the record, there should be no debate about the second pass interference call on Tre'Davious White that put Denver inside the 10-yard line. They don't get much more obvious than that.
Buffalo's uncharacteristic mistakes are what actually decided this game. James Cook's early fumble spoiled an opportunity for the Bills to take a 14-3 lead early in the second quarter. After back-to-back Broncos touchdown drives, Denver was gifted another three points when Allen coughed up the ball on a reckless play before half. Allen's second lost fumble gave the Broncos another field goal immediately after the break, and his poor decision on a deep interception trailing 23-17 wasted the opportunity Bo Nix provided by throwing a horrific pick two plays prior. Allen is the best quarterback on the planet right now - he's the reason this deeply flawed Bills still had a chance to chase down that elusive first Super Bowl. But with Buffalo having such glaring issues on defense and at receiver, it seemed possible, if not likely, that any such run was going to require him to string together four consecutive superhuman performances. That was always an unrealistic ask.
Joe Brady makes his case
The Bills giving this game away with some costly turnovers becomes an even more difficult pill to swallow when you consider what they were otherwise doing to the vaunted Denver defense for the better part of the day. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady had his unit marching up and down the field despite a relatively underwhelming game from his star quarterback, posting a 58.3% rush success rate and a 51.3% figure for the unit as a whole, according to TruMedia. Both are the second-best marks recorded against the Broncos this season.
Brady hasn't been generating much buzz in this year's head coaching cycles, receiving just three known interview requests ahead of this week's game. Don't be surprised if he has a few more waiting for him first thing Sunday morning. Because while some will be wary about what his offense might look like without a unicorn quarterback, there aren't many play-callers who could so consistently have the Broncos' defense on its heels. Brady has a unique ability to scheme up space for playmakers, and his creativity was on full display with the hook and ladder that helped the Bills get in range for a game-tying field goal to force overtime. It's probably only a matter of time before an organization looking to set a young quarterback up for success gives him a chance to lead a team of his own.
Dan Wilkins is theScore's senior NFL writer.