Key takeaways and analysis from the divisional round

Playoff Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

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Rams get away with one

A win is a win. This time of year, teams will take them however they can get them. But if the Rams expect to complete their quest for another Super Bowl, they'll need far more from both their quarterback and head coach.

Matthew Stafford was off his game for much of Sunday's contest in Chicago, completing just 20 of 42 passes for 268 yards and no touchdowns while taking four sacks. Many of those incompletions can be chalked up to off-target throws. Whether that was a result of the frigid weather, the lingering effects of last week's finger injury, or a combination of the two, the Rams can't afford similar issues next week against the No. 1-seeded Seahawks.

Considering Stafford's uncharacteristic struggles and an impressive performance from the Bears' defense in coverage, it was baffling to see Sean McVay go back to the pass game time and time again. The Rams, who finished the regular season ranked second with a 53.1% rush success rate, handed the ball to running backs just 10 times through the first three quarters in Chicago. And after leading the league in 13 personnel rate throughout the regular season at 20.1% - a critical factor in their success on offense - the Rams turned to those three tight-end sets at just a 10.8% clip against the Bears.

McVay's game management was also an issue. There was no need to run the ball on a critical third-and-10 with 2:07 remaining in the fourth quarter, as the clock would stop for the two-minute warning either way. Not using his timeouts at any point on the ensuing touchdown drive left the Rams no time to respond before the end of regulation, and taking a pair of deep shots on the final series of overtime instead of trying to improve field position for a shaky field-goal unit felt like playing with fire.

None of it mattered in the end; Stafford came through in crunch time and the Rams converted on the walk-off kick to survive the scare. Each game is its own chess match, so there's no reason to think any less of this team heading into next week's NFC Championship. But the near-disaster does give McVay and his staff plenty to evaluate in preparation for a rubber match with the division-rival Seahawks.

Caleb Williams, folks

The Bears were that close to pulling off the unthinkable. Were it not for DJ Moore easing up on a crossing route in overtime, there's a good chance Caleb Williams' game-tying miracle ends up being remembered a whole lot differently.

In the end, Chicago still fell short. And Williams' detractors will be able to point to his stat line - 23 of 42, 257 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs - as evidence that he's still got a ways to go. In some senses, that's true. As I wrote last week, though, these game-changing moments are a sign that it's only a matter of time before we're talking about him as one of the best in the business.

Williams had nowhere to go on a do-or-die fourth-and-4 from the 14-yard line with 27 seconds to play. In buying himself some time, he drifted all the way back to the 40-yard line. For just about any other quarterback, that would have been game over. But Williams provided yet another example of his unfathomable physical gifts, heaving the ball 45 yards in the air off his back foot to find Cole Kmet for the tying score.

It's this kind of rare arm talent, along with a Patrick Mahomes-like ability to avoid sacks and create when a play breaks down, that gives him a path toward joining the league's elite. If his in-rhythm accuracy improves with another year in Ben Johnson's system, he could get there as soon as next fall.

Bears fans will be heartbroken by the way this season ended, but they can take solace in the fact that, for the first time in franchise history, they've got a true superstar at quarterback. And with Johnson just getting started on building the organization the right way, this is likely only the beginning. Chicago may have kicked open an extended Super Bowl window.

Patriots' defense swarms

We've spent a lot of time this season talking about the Patriots' offense - Drake Maye emerging as a legitimate MVP candidate was undeniably the leading factor in this incredible turnaround in the first year under Mike Vrabel. That unit did its part Sunday afternoon, chipping in with a few critical plays against a ferocious Texans defense, but there was a different main character.

The Patriots advancing to the AFC title game was always going to require Vrabel's defense to step up and expose an underwhelming Texans offense. And while a rough game from C.J. Stroud may only add to tired narratives about New England benefiting from an easy road to the top of the AFC, this wasn't merely a matter of the opposing quarterback giving the game away. The Patriots straight-up took it from him.

Christian Barmore and big-ticket free-agent addition Milton Williams led the way as New England dominated the line of scrimmage from the jump. The coaching staff had a picture-perfect game plan to get after Stroud, blitzing on a season-high 52% of dropbacks through two quarters. The result? Four interceptions and 22 plays of no gain or negative yards, the most for any team in a first half since at least 2000, according to ESPN.

The Texans managed to take better care of the ball in the second half, but there were only so many opportunities for Stroud to find open receivers. The Patriots forcing tight-window throws on 29.8% of attempts (14-of-47) was the highest rate by any defense in a playoff game over the last six seasons, according to Next Gen Stats. The defense putting up 0.43 EPA/play, based on TruMedia's model, tops the output of any New England defense in the Bill Belichick era. Anything close to that kind of performance next week in Denver against a Jarrett Stidham-led offense should put the Patriots one win away from adding to their trophy collection.

Stroud crumbles

Stroud's spectacular rookie season feels like an eternity ago, doesn't it? The Texans quarterback wasn't getting much help in the disastrous first half against the Patriots - his offensive line was consistently overwhelmed by New England's pressure packages. But for a player who once appeared to be on a franchise-quarterback trajectory, his decision-making amid all that chaos was unacceptable. And Stroud was inaccurate with the ball even when he did have time to stand in and deliver.

He got away with some careless mistakes last week, as the Steelers couldn't capitalize on him losing three of a playoff record five fumbles. It wasn't going to be so easy to overcome that many mistakes on the road in New England. Stroud's four first-half interceptions made him the first player in league history with at least five picks and five fumbles in a single postseason, according to NFL research. And it took him just six quarters of football to accomplish the dubious feat.

Perhaps this is all a symptom of having to navigate two full seasons of horrific pass protection - the never-ending mayhem can impact the way a young quarterback operates in the pocket. Whatever the cause may be, this simply isn't the same player we saw two years ago. The talent is still there, so maybe he'll get back on track next fall. The Texans will surely do everything they can to improve the offensive ecosystem around him. But as they inch closer to the end of his rookie contract, the franchise must have some level of concern that Stroud won't ever develop into the type of game-changer worthy of an extension. The former No. 2 overall pick needs to get back to the player we saw in 2023 before Houston can even think about dishing out a deal in line with an exploding quarterback market.

Campbell struggling

Will Campbell isn't the first offensive lineman to have a tough time against Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, and he certainly won't be the last. Generally speaking, there's probably no need to panic over a rookie tackle giving up a pair of sacks on five pressures against that kind of competition. In this case, though, it seems clear that Campbell is still getting his feet back underneath him after missing the last five games of the regular season with a knee injury. He also gave up a sack and five pressures in the wild-card win over the Chargers, according to PFF.

With a matchup against a lethal Broncos pass rush on deck, the Patriots would be wise to get the No. 4 overall pick some consistent chip help on the edge. Lightning-quick get-offs from Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper will test an offensive tackle who may not be as mobile as usual. The explosive duo led the way for a Broncos defense that finished the year with 68 sacks, just four shy of the all-time record set by the 1984 Bears. Maye can't take five sacks and put the ball on the ground four times, as was the case this week, if the Patriots expect to take care of business in Denver.

The team to beat

Anything can happen in a single-elimination playoff format, so I won't overreact to one dominant outing by making any bold predictions about who I expect to be the last team standing in Santa Clara. The best team doesn't always win the Super Bowl. If that were the case, though, you could go ahead and pencil in the Seahawks right now.

Seattle's second season under Mike Macdonald didn't get off to the best of starts, and a soft second-half schedule probably left some wondering whether this team truly had what it takes to roll through the NFC playoffs. But a Week 16 win over the Rams was something of a statement in that regard, with Sam Darnold and the offense bouncing back from a disastrous outing in their previous matchup to edge L.A. in a shootout. And the Seahawks have seemingly only gotten better since.

Macdonald's defense put the clamps on Kyle Shanahan with the No. 1 seed up for grabs in Week 18, allowing just three points in the win. Seattle's 0.36 EPA/play in that game was, at the time, the best mark any team had recorded against a hyper-efficient 49ers offense this year. The Seahawks then exceeded that output (0.43 EPA/play) in Saturday's 41-6 beatdown. The key: winning the line of scrimmage in such a way that Brock Purdy, according to the Fox broadcast, traveled 413 yards on his 33 dropbacks. This is undoubtedly the kind of defense that could single-handedly lead a team all the way to the Super Bowl.

The challenge becomes even more daunting for opponents when the defense isn't doing it alone. While much of Seattle's offensive contributions have come courtesy of a big-play passing game, a previously inconsistent run game also showed some promise coming out of last week's bye. Perhaps it's merely a result of a matchup with a beat-up 49ers defense, but the Seahawks have to be ecstatic with Kenneth Walker III putting up 116 yards and three touchdowns on 19 carries. If they've suddenly found a way to round out the offense with a touch more consistency on the ground, there might be no stopping this team from chasing down the ultimate prize.

Out of magic

The 49ers overcoming everything they did to get to this point was an incredible story. A ridiculous run of injuries on both sides of the ball should have been enough to end their season in the first round of the playoffs, if not before. But San Francisco was in contention for the No. 1 seed right up until the final week of the season, and a wild-card win over the Eagles demonstrated the coaching advantage this team holds over most others in the league. Unfortunately, that only gets you so far with a roster decimated by injuries.

The offense was going to have to carry the load with the defense missing a pair of perennial All-Pros in Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. But the chances of that happening were effectively wiped out last week when George Kittle joined the list of injured superstars with a torn Achilles. That crushing blow left Brock Purdy without his most reliable target and, just as importantly, removed one of the NFL's best in-line blocking tight ends from a run game that was already struggling - not exactly a recipe for success against the Seahawks' defense. The 49ers have some work to do on the roster, particularly when it comes to bolstering the defense. But weathering the storm throughout this season, and coming within one game of yet another NFC title game, was an important reminder that this team will almost always be in the mix with Shanahan at the helm.

Crisis averted

The Seahawks got a bit of a scare at Thursday's practice when Sam Darnold was added to the injury report with an oblique issue. And when word circulated that he hadn't even thrown a ball between then and Saturday, some fans must have been panicking. Well, crisis averted. Darnold didn't have to do much in the blowout win over the 49ers, but he didn't look the least bit limited.

Oblique injuries can be tricky, so he may have to manage this for the rest of the season. But the veteran quarterback completing 12 of 17 passes for 124 yards and a score two days after the initial tweak suggests it probably isn't something to worry about looking ahead to next week and potentially Super Bowl LX.

Nix delivers before heartbreak

If you had told me heading into this game that the Broncos would be putting the ball almost exclusively in the hands of Bo Nix, I would have guessed the AFC's No. 1 seed was going to be one-and-done. This passing attack had been far too inconsistent to trust in a big spot, and just last week, the Jaguars showed the world the consequences of not exposing a porous Bills run defense. That evidently wasn't Sean Payton's takeaway from the wild-card matchup, as his running backs saw just 10 carries in Saturday's divisional-round opener.

Fortunately for the Broncos, they didn't have to pay the same price as Jacksonville. That's because Nix stepped up pretty much whenever they needed him to make a play. On the first touchdown drive, it was a bullet up the seam to Marvin Mims Jr. Then came the 29-yard touchdown to Lil'Jordan Humphrey with 22 seconds left before halftime. He also made two massive throws on a go-ahead touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter - a 25-yard strike to Courtland Sutton on a critical third-and-11, and a dime to Mims for the score four plays later.

It was the kind of performance that, for all his inconsistencies, created a feeling that the Broncos might just have everything they need to win a Super Bowl. And then came the stunning postgame announcement from Payton: Nix will miss the rest of the playoffs after suffering a broken bone in his ankle on the second-last offensive play of the game. Denver will turn to Jarrett Stidham for the fifth start of his seven-year career with the AFC title on the line next week.

Perhaps Payton can find a run game and scheme things up well enough for his relatively inexperienced backup to keep the offense afloat. Assuming the Broncos get a bounce-back performance from the defense, they may not need much. But it's exceedingly difficult to shake the feeling that getting two more wins has suddenly become an impossible task.

More devastation for Bills

There's going to be a lot of talk about the controversial play in overtime where the Broncos were awarded an interception on a deep ball to Brandin Cooks. Personally, I think officials made the right call. Freeze frames will make it look like Cooks was down with possession before having it ripped away by Ja'Quan McMillian, but the rules state that the receiver also needs to survive the ground to complete a catch. The more egregious call, to me, was the 17-yard pass interference that put the Broncos in field-goal range four plays later. But the Bills were going to be penalized 15 yards anyway, as Joey Bosa was also flagged for roughing the passer. And for the record, there should be no debate about the second pass interference call on Tre'Davious White that put Denver inside the 10-yard line. They don't get much more obvious than that.

Buffalo's uncharacteristic mistakes are what actually decided this game. James Cook's early fumble spoiled an opportunity for the Bills to take a 14-3 lead early in the second quarter. After back-to-back Broncos touchdown drives, Denver was gifted another three points when Josh Allen coughed up the ball on a reckless play before half. Allen's second lost fumble gave the Broncos another field goal immediately after the break, and his poor decision on a deep interception trailing 23-17 wasted the opportunity Nix provided by throwing a horrific pick two plays prior. Allen is the best quarterback on the planet right now - he's the reason this deeply flawed Bills team still had a chance to chase down that elusive first Super Bowl. But with Buffalo's glaring issues on defense and at receiver, it seemed possible, if not likely, that any such run would require him to string together four consecutive superhuman performances. That was always an unrealistic ask.

Joe Brady makes his case

Giving this game away with some costly turnovers becomes an even more difficult pill to swallow when you consider what the Bills otherwise accomplished against the vaunted Denver defense for the better part of the day. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady had his unit marching up and down the field despite a relatively underwhelming game from his star quarterback, posting a 58.3% rush success rate and a 51.3% figure for the unit as a whole, according to TruMedia. Both are the second-best marks recorded against the Broncos this season.

Brady hasn't been generating much buzz in this year's head coaching cycle, receiving just three known interview requests ahead of this week's game. Don't be surprised if he has a few more waiting for him first thing Sunday morning. Because while some front offices will be wary of what his offense might look like without a unicorn quarterback, not many play-callers could so consistently put the Broncos' defense on its heels. Brady has a unique ability to scheme up space for playmakers, and his creativity was on full display with the hook and ladder that helped the Bills get in range for a game-tying field goal to force overtime. It's probably a matter of time before an organization looking to set a young quarterback up for success gives him a chance to lead a team of his own.

Dan Wilkins is theScore's senior NFL writer.