3 matchups that will decide each NFL conference title game

And then there were four.

Championship weekend is officially here, and the two best teams in each conference found their way to their respective title games.

Let's dive into each of Sunday's contests, breaking down the matchups that could decide who will be moving on to Super Bowl LX.

AFC championship

Jarrett Stidham vs. Patriots' defense

Bo Nix breaking a bone in his ankle at the end of last week's win over the Bills put the Broncos in an incredibly tough position. Sean Payton now turns to veteran backup Jarrett Stidham, who's made four career NFL starts and hasn't thrown a pass in a non-preseason game since 2023. It's only natural to assume that Denver's Super Bowl dreams are effectively dead. But don't be so sure.

Stidham will be in tough against a Mike Vrabel defense that appears to be peaking at the perfect time. New England terrorized Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud in the first two rounds of the playoffs. The healthy return of big-ticket free agent signing Milton Williams - along with a 40.6% blitz rate (up from 27.2% in the regular season), according to TruMedia - has produced consistent chaos in the pass game. After ranking 12th with a 38.4% pressure rate in the regular season, the Patriots are second behind the Seahawks at 52.1% in the playoffs. The result? Nine sacks and a playoff-leading six turnovers. If they can maintain that form against a relatively inexperienced backup, the Patriots may well cruise into the Super Bowl.

But Stidham should have more support than Herbert and Stroud got from their subpar offensive lines. Denver allowed the fifth-lowest pressure rate during the regular season (32.6%), and only 12 teams surrendered a lower pressure rate when blitzed (42.8%). The Broncos will need to keep it up; Stidham does his best work from the pocket and will need to be particularly effective in that regard to replicate the overall impact of Nix, who also contributes as a runner.

Any Broncos fans seeking reasons for optimism can look back to a Stidham spot start with the Raiders in 2022. With Derek Carr benched for the stretch run, Stidham drew in against the 49ers, the NFL's best defense by EPA/play. He left little doubt about his natural skills as a passer, putting up 365 yards and three touchdowns. After three full years in Payton's system, don't be surprised if Stidham can manage the offense well enough to give the Broncos a chance.

Broncos' pass rush vs. Patriots' O-line

It can be dangerous to reduce football games to a battle between quarterbacks. A Patriots offense led by MVP candidate Drake Maye clearly has more firepower than a Broncos scoring attack that's handing the keys to its backup signal-caller. Nobody would be picking against New England if those were the only factors. But plenty of other players (and coaches) also get some say in the game's outcome. Can the Patriots' offensive line keep Denver's pass rush from leveling the playing field?

Few defenses in NFL history have gotten after quarterbacks like this edition of Broncos. That group recorded 68 sacks in the regular season, just four shy of the all-time record set by the 1984 Bears. Pressure packages were a big part of that equation - Denver had the NFL's third-highest blitz rate at 31.7% - but a four-man rush featuring the likes of Nik Bonitto, Jonathan Cooper, Zach Allen, and John Franklin-Myers is lethal enough on its own. The Broncos ranked third with a 39.6% pressure rate on dropbacks with four pass-rushers.

While the Patriots' playoff run started with a pair of convincing victories, it hasn't all been smooth sailing for their passing game. Maye took five sacks in each of those contests, fumbling six times and losing three. In the regular season, Maye was brought down in the backfield 49 times, more than all but three quarterbacks. First-round rookie left tackle Will Campbell has struggled in his first two games back from a knee injury, allowing nine pressures and three sacks in the playoffs.

The Patriots need to keep their offense on schedule with the run game to avoid too many obvious passing situations. And they'd be wise to limit the one-on-one assignments against Denver's explosive edge rushers. If the Broncos' offense can put together a few scoring drives to keep things close, the pass rush may be one timely strip sack away from swinging the game.

Stefon Diggs vs. Ja'Quan McMillian

Here's New England's potential path to nullifying Denver's pass rush. Patrick Surtain II shadowing Stefon Diggs is the blockbuster coverage matchup that everyone wants to see, but those reps could be few and far between. Diggs gets plenty of work in the slot, while Surtain is predominantly a boundary player who lined up inside for just 74 of 971 regular-season snaps.

Ja'Quan McMillian is no slouch, and he's coming off an excellent game in the divisional round. He allowed one catch for minus-4 yards and stole the ball away from Brandin Cooks for a miraculous (and correctly called) interception in the clutch. But if the Patriots' receivers are going to get quick wins against the Broncos' man-coverage looks - Denver's 32.1% rate was second highest in the league - this is probably their best opportunity.

Diggs has exceeded expectations since signing a three-year, $63.5-million deal to join the Patriots in March, immediately bouncing back from the torn ACL that ended his 2024 season. The 32-year-old finished the regular season with 85 catches for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns. All four of those scores came while facing man coverage. His 23 first downs against those looks were fourth behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua, and George Pickens. If the Patriots are going to advance to their first Super Bowl of the post-Tom Brady era, Diggs should have a substantial role.

NFC championship

Sean McVay vs. Mike Macdonald

The highlight of this matchup is a football nerd's dream: Sean McVay's offense taking on Mike Macdonald's defense. Conference title games don't get much better than that. And it's the third time these schematic masterminds are going head to head this season, which should make the game within the game even more fascinating.

Most discussion about the Rams focuses on their passing attack, and for good reason. Matthew Stafford is an MVP favorite after a career year throwing to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. But the ground game is still the foundation of this offense. Los Angeles posted a 56.9% success rate on running back carries during the regular season, the best mark of any team this century. But here's the thing: Nobody runs on the Seahawks. That unit led the league with 0.21 EPA/rush this season, the most from a defense since 2020.

The Rams found this out the hard way in Week 16 in Seattle, where they averaged just 3.2 yards per carry. The result was more third-down pass dropbacks (17) than any other game in the McVay era. That's not typically a recipe for success against the Seahawks, who also produced a top-five output in EPA/dropback. But McVay found a way to mitigate pressure and create big plays in the passing game. Stafford finished the night with 457 yards - his most since 2013 - and three touchdowns. Although Adams was out of the lineup, that didn't make it any easier for the Seahawks to keep Nacua under wraps; the superstar wideout turned his 16 targets into 12 catches for 225 yards and a pair of scores. Crucially, it was the third time in three matchups that McVay's offense held Macdonald's defense without a sack.

Does that trend give the Rams coach a leg up in this one? Not necessarily. It's Macdonald's turn to make some adjustments, though. Stafford has struggled under pressure so far in the playoffs, completing nine of 23 passes for 119 yards and an interception while taking five sacks. The Seahawks need to test him more consistently in that regard if they hope to avoid a game like December's 38-37 shootout. Seattle prevailed in that Thursday night thriller, but keeping up with the Rams in that kind of game script could be tough with Sam Darnold battling injury.

Sam Darnold vs. Rams' secondary

That brings us to the second-most important matchup of this game. Darnold needs to avoid back-breaking turnovers. Those critical errors made the difference in the teams' first meeting this year as the Rams recorded a 21-19 victory on the back of four interceptions. It was an unfortunate flashback to Darnold's "seeing ghosts" moment with the Jets.

The Seahawks quarterback was quite a bit better in the Week 16 rematch. The lasting memory of his performance is the overtime touchdown drive and two-point conversion to win it. Were it not for some key special-teams contributions that sparked the comeback, though, the spotlight likely would have found his two second-half picks. Darnold had his share of turnovers in other games, too, finishing the regular season with 14 interceptions. But Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula clearly has a knack for mixing coverages and dropping defenders into throwing lanes in a way that's been especially challenging for Darnold.

The Seahawks should have plenty of opportunities to make big plays if he can take care of the ball. Their passing game was a top-three unit in terms of explosive pass rate (17.3%) throughout the regular season. The back end of the Rams' defense really started to show cracks down the stretch, giving up 31 pass plays of 20-plus yards from Week 10 through the end of the regular season. Only four teams allowed more over that stretch. Can Darnold capitalize and dispel the narratives that cropped up after last year's playoff collapse?

Rashid Shaheed vs. Rams' special teams

The third phase of the game should never be overlooked - and that's especially true in this contest, because one side appears to hold a monumental advantage.

Seattle finished the regular season with the NFL's No. 2-ranked special teams unit by EPA. Rashid Shaheed has been a big part of that success since coming over in a trade-deadline deal from the Saints, racking up three return scores since making his Seahawks debut in Week 10. The most recent one came on the opening kickoff in the divisional round, setting the tone for a blowout win over the 49ers.

The Rams, meanwhile, produced the league's second-worst EPA on special teams. They were last by that metric when they fired coordinator Chase Blackburn with two games remaining in the regular season. The dagger? Shaheed igniting the Seahawks' fourth-quarter comeback with a 58-yard punt return touchdown.

With L.A. and Seattle so evenly matched on offense and defense, another big play from Shaheed could be the difference Sunday. The Rams can consider the special teams battle won if they're able to contain the league's most dangerous return man. McVay might be wise to treat Shaheed like Devin Hester and kick the ball out of bounds throughout.

Dan Wilkins is theScore's senior NFL writer.