Meet the Prospects: Quarterbacks

We end our "Meet the Prospects" series with the most important position in football (and quite possibly the most important in all of sports), quarterback.

Drafting a quarterback is unlike drafting any other position. The coach and general manager in place when a quarterback is chosen are forever tied to that player. If he busts, they're both certain to lose their jobs. That doesn't necessarily happen when you miss on a first-round receiver or defensive back.

Some bad news for this year's quarterback-needy teams (of which there are at least five and perhaps as many as eight picking in the top 10): this year's crop of passers doesn't exactly inspire confidence. There's no polished prospect like Andrew Luck in this draft class. There isn't even a Cam Newton - a rare athlete teeming with upside. 

What this class has in abundance is question marks. There are questions about size, questions about throwing mechanics and questions about scheme fit. Bizarrely, there's increasing talk a player once considered the consensus No. 1 prospect in this entire class (regardless of position) could fall out of the first round.

Complicating matters for teams considering spending a first-round pick on a quarterback is a shift in thinking in the NFL about where premier passers come from. Half a decade ago, the notion that starting quarterbacks can be found outside the first round was considered objectively false. Then Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick happened and suddenly it became apparent that you can win with quarterbacks selected after Round 1.

The story of any given draft begins and ends with quarterbacks. Ultimately, this year will be no different. Expect trades up and down the board as teams maneuver to get the passer they covet at a price they can stomach. The market fluctuations should be fascinating, and there's good reason to believe the supply won't meet the demand. Someone's going home empty-handed.

Let's get to know the commodities, shall we?

10. Tom Savage

Measurables

• 6'4"
• 228 lbs.
• 4.97 speed
• 9 5/8" hands

Strengths

Savage is a prototypical pocket passer. He wins by dropping back, waiting for a receiver to gain separation and uncorking a throw in his direction. He has a big arm and makes difficult throws look easy. His ball location is excellent.

Savage succeeded in a pro-style offense at Pitt behind an offensive line that was frequently abysmal.

Weaknesses

Savage won't beat you with his legs. He is no threat to tuck the ball and run, nor is he a threat to complete passes on the run. He must remain in the pocket to succeed.

Savage tends to back away from pressure. He must prove he is willing to stand in the face of a pass rush and take a hit to make a play with his arm.

Savage was highly recruited out of high school but didn't live up to his potential until his final season of college football (and his first at Pitt). He sat out two seasons due to NCAA transfer rules. At 24 years old, he's older than the others in his draft class, but no more experienced. While 24 certainly isn't old, some teams could consider Savage's age as a tiebreaker when comparing him to other prospects. 

NFL player comparison: Chad Henne

Ideal fit: Atlanta Falcons

Savage owes his agent a big thank-you. Savage entered the draft process as a relative unknown and somehow built buzz to the extent that he's now being discussed as a possible first-round draft pick. 

That's insane. Savage remains a third-round pick at best, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him slip to the fourth or fifth rounds of the draft.

The Falcons need an upgrade behind Matt Ryan. Savage fits the bill.

9. AJ McCarron

Measurables

• 6'3"
• 220 lbs.
• 4.94 speed
• 10" hands

Strengths

McCarron is a "game manager" in all the positive aspects of the term. He's intelligent, patient and a good leader. He takes what defenses give him, throws with good timing and touch, and rarely turns the ball over. 

McCarron is pro-ready. He ran a pro-style offense at Alabama and has proven capable of adjusting his protection, reading a defense and moving through his progressions.

McCarron has experience playing in big games in front of big audiences. There is no indication he allows the pressure of such situations to negatively affect his play. 

Weaknesses

McCarron is also a "game manager" in the negative sense. He doesn't have a special arm or impressive athleticism. In fact, he's below average in both categories.

McCarron doesn't rise up and seize the moment on the big stage. He puts his playmaking teammates in position to succeed, but he is rarely the one to make a signature play to win a crucial game.

The Alabama teams McCarron quarterbacked to back-to-back national championships boasted elite offensive lines. We don't know how McCarron would react with more pressure in his face.

NFL player comparison: Kirk Cousins

Ideal fit: San Diego Chargers

Despite McCarron's pro-readiness, he's a difficult player to project. Much of his success in the NFL will likely be determined by where he lands. On a team with a strong running game and top defense, McCarron could possibly steer the ship to the playoffs. On a team that asks him to be the centerpiece of its offense, he could fall flat on his face. 

The Chargers need an understudy for Philip Rivers. Spending a mid-round pick on McCarron makes sense.

8. Logan Thomas

Measurables

• 6'6"
• 248 lbs.
• 4.61 speed
• 10 7/8" hands

Strengths

On paper, Thomas looks like a top-ten pick. In addition to the strongest arm in this draft class, he also possesses ideal size and strength in the pocket and speed on the run. 

Thomas' throwing motion is compact and he delivers the ball with impressive velocity.

When needed, Thomas can escape the pocket and run for the first down. His physical stature makes him hard for defenders to wrap up.

Weaknesses

Thomas is so unrefined as a passer that there was talk early in the draft process that he might be better off changing positions as a pro. 

Over the course of his college career, Thomas was highly inconsistent as a passer and never developed the accuracy needed to succeed in the NFL. Thomas must improve his footwork in the pocket and learn to throw with more touch.

NFL player comparison: Cam Newton

Ideal fit: New York Jets

Thomas' upside is immense, but he has a long way to go before he can start for an NFL team. The recent success of big, strong, fast quarterbacks who entered the league in need of refinement in the pocket (Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick are obvious examples) should inspire a team to invest a mid-round pick in Thomas in the hope that he follows a similar developmental path.

The Jets make sense as a destination for Thomas. Michael Vick won't be around forever and Geno Smith may ultimately prove to be unfit as a starter. The Jets could give Thomas a "redshirt" season as their third quarterback and then give him the chance to compete with Vick/Smith in 2015.

7. Aaron Murray

Measurables

• 6'1"
• 207 lbs.
• 9 1/8" hands

Strengths

Murray's college tape is excellent. He picked apart SEC defenses as a four-year starter.

Murray throws with a quick release, excellent touch, and good accuracy. He is patient enough to take what defenses give him and not try to force the ball to covered receivers. 

Murray demonstrates good movement in the pocket and a good sense of when to tuck the ball and run for a first down.

Weaknesses

Murray is a small-bodied quarterback who isn't especially athletic (and may take a step back in terms of mobility after tearing his ACL in 2013) and doesn't have a big arm. How many small quarterbacks with average arms and average athleticism have truly succeeded in today's NFL? The list includes Drew Brees and very few others.

NFL player comparison: Jeff Garcia

Ideal fit: Kansas City Chiefs

Murray has the personality of a winner. A team will give him the chance to compete for a starting job (though he would probably benefit from a year spent sitting on the bench behind an established starter and getting fully healthy). The Chiefs could represent an ideal landing spot, as Alex Smith will become a free agent in 2015 and head coach Andy Reid isn't shy about using early draft picks on quarterbacks to light a fire under his incumbent starter (Kevin Kolb, Nick Foles).

6. Zach Mettenberger

Measurables

• 6'5"
• 224 lbs.
• 9 3/4" hands

Strengths

Mettenberger has the size and skills of a prototypical vertical pocket passer. He's at his best taking the snap, trusting his blocking, waiting for a receiver to get open downfield, and then uncorking a deep throw. 

Mettenberger ran former NFL coordinator Cam Cameron's pro-style offense at LSU, so his transition to the NFL film room should be an easy one.

Weaknesses

Mettenberger can only be a vertical pocket passer. He offers very little in the way of escapability in the pocket. He can't run for a first down when you need him to. If he doesn't see a clean pocket on a consistent basis, he won't win games.

Mettenberger's college career finished with a torn ACL. He wasn't mobile to begin with. That's not ideal.

Though a player of Mettenberger's type is expected to take sacks (it's a natural consequence of remaining in the pocket and waiting for deep routes to open up), he nonetheless takes too many sacks. He needs to do a better job throwing the ball away.

NFL player comparison: Carson Palmer

Ideal fit: Arizona Cardinals

Mettenberger requires a specific offensive scheme or he will not succeed as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Considering his similarities to Carson Palmer, and Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians' history of coaching up big quarterbacks who take too many sacks (Ben Roethlisberger is an obvious example), Mettenberger could be a good fit in the desert. Palmer is nearing the end of his career, and he could serve as a mentor to Mettenberger while the rookie takes a year (or two) to recover from his knee injury and hone his game.

5. Jimmy Garoppolo

Measurables

• 6'2"
• 226 lbs.
• 4.97 speed
• 9 1/4" hands

Strengths

Garoppolo's passing mechanics are excellent. He throws with a smooth, compact, overhead delivery and good touch. He anticipates his receivers' routes and throws to where they are going. Rarely do his passes miss their target.

Garoppolo is poised in the pocket and willing to take a hit to complete a pass.

Garoppolo is a vocal leader.

Weaknesses

Garoppolo worked mostly out of the shotgun at Eastern Illinois. He must go back to basics and learn pro passing concepts, including how to take the snap under center and drop in the pocket.

Though Garoppolo has a stronger arm than he gets credit for, his arm strength is not what allows him to succeed as a quarterback. His deep ball needs some work.

Garoppolo posted very impressive numbers as a senior, but they came against weak competition. 

NFL player comparison: Andy Dalton

Ideal fit: Houston Texans

Garoppolo projects as a second-round pick. Should the Texans opt to choose a defender like Jadeveon Clowney with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, Garoppolo would be an attractive option for the team at No. 33 overall. He's unlikely to develop into a top-five passer as a pro, but there's reason to believe he could thrive on a ball-control team with a strong running game and top defense.

4. Derek Carr

Measurables

• 6'2"
• 214 lbs.
• 4.69 speed
• 9 1/8" hands

Strengths

Carr's arm is among the best in this class. He throws with good timing and velocity, and he knows how to exploit his arm strength to turn passes that would be incompletions (or turnovers) for other quarterbacks into completions.

Carr's college statistics are hard to fathom. He threw for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in his final season at Fresno State. He topped 400 yards passing in eight of 12 games (and topped 500 in two). His completion percentage dipped below 60 percent only once. 

Carr is an excellent leader who demonstrated maturity beyond his years in college.

Weaknesses

Carr ran a limited offense at Fresno State that was built around spread formations, short drops in the pocket and quick throws. He will need to improve his five- and seven-step drops in order to run a pro-style offense.

Carr tries to do too much. He trusts his arm more than he should, which leads him to believe he can complete passes he has no business attempting.

There are concerns that Carr fears pressure in the pocket. When rushers get near him, he has a tendency to bail or throw the ball away too quickly. He must improve his courage in the face of the pass rush.

NFL player comparison: Matthew Stafford

Ideal fit: Cleveland Browns

The biggest factor pushing Carr down draft boards could be the lack of success his older brother, David, experienced after the expansion Houston Texans made him the No. 1 overall pick in 2002. David was a disaster with the Texans, playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in history and rapidly developing a fear of pass rushers. Younger brother Derek carries the same concern.

Ultimately, Carr should hear his name called late in the first round or early in the second round. The Browns at No. 26 represent an ideal landing spot, as they have elite players at left tackle and center to help ease Carr's transition into the pro game, and a dynamic young wideout with the talent to bail out Carr when he tries to force passes.

3. Blake Bortles

Measurables

• 6'5"
• 232 lbs.
• 4.93 speed
• 9 3/8" hands

Strengths

Bortles' best attribute is his size, which he knows how to use to its fullest extent. It's important not to overlook how crucial this is. His stature, strength and courage to stand tall in the pocket and make throws in the face of pressure make him a very difficult player to sack.

Bortles is good on the move. He excels at called bootlegs and extending the play when his protection breaks down.

Bortles is a strong passer who displays good accuracy and touch on short and intermediate routes.

There's no question Bortles is still raw in some areas (particularly with regards to his footwork), but there's no reason to believe he can't correct his weaknesses with good coaching. In fact, some NFL coaches may not see flaws but rather unrealized upside.

Bortles has the demeanor of a franchise quarterback. He's a strong leader and a calming presence on the field. 

Weaknesses

Bortles must improve his lower-body mechanics. His footwork on dropbacks can leave a lot to be desired, and he doesn't throw with ideal torque in his legs. 

Though he has a very strong arm, Bortles' deep pass isn't as good as you would expect for someone with his physical attributes. His deep passes often lack touch and sometimes fall short of their intended target. This is likely due to a minor issue with Bortles' throwing mechanics; some have argued he needs to adjust how he grips the ball. 

Bortles' passing statistics dropped off on thirds downs and against better teams throughout his college career, leading some to question whether his play suffers slightly in high-pressure situations.

NFL player comparison: Ben Roethlisberger

Ideal fit: Minnesota Vikings

Bortles appears to be an ideal fit for new Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner's offensive scheme. With a few adjustments to his throwing motion, he should be excel at standing in the pocket and delivering vertical strikes to Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Rudolph and the Vikings' other receivers - much like how Philip Rivers enjoyed some of his best seasons throwing to Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates in a Turner offense. New Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is likely to favor Bortles, too, as the UCF product may remind him of a quarterback Zimmer knows well from his days as a defensive coordinator in the AFC North: Ben Roethlisberger.

Though Bortles doesn't top this list, it won't be a surprise if he's a top-ten pick and the first quarterback off the board on draft day.

2. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M

Measurables

• 5'11 3/4"
• 207 lbs.
• 4.68 speed
• 9 7/8" hands

Strengths

Manziel is a truly rare player. He doesn't play quarterback like anyone in today's NFL, nor the NFL of the past. He makes eye-popping plays (often improvised) that other quarterbacks simply cannot. Frankly, he attempts plays that no quarterback should - and he somehow makes them work. He has the potential to revolutionize the position and become one of sports' biggest stars.

Too few people realize what a remarkable athlete Manziel is. He isn't just a quarterback who's a threat to run. When he takes off with the ball, he's as dangerous as a top running back or wide receiver in open space.

It's Manziel's running ability that makes headlines, but it's his underrated passing skills that land him in the second position on this list. Manziel's arm strength is more than adequate for the NFL, and his ability to make touch throws on the run sets him apart from other big-armed prospects. 

Manziel is a fierce competitor, a strong leader and a good student. Scouts will love that Manziel showed improvement as a passer from his freshman year (for which he won the Heisman) to his sophomore year. He improved again leading up to his pro day. He has a desire to be great and the work ethic needed to make it happen. 

Weaknesses

Manziel is still a work in progress. He needs to get much better in several crucial areas or he risks failing in spectacular fashion.

Manziel frequently makes incorrect reads. For reasons known only to him, he chooses not to throw to his primary receiver even when he’s open. He makes things harder on himself. Manziel especially struggles when opponents drop defenders into coverage and rush not for the sack but merely to keep him in the pocket and force him to throw into tight coverage.

Manziel demonstrates exceptional movement behind the line of scrimmage, but too often he tries to escape out of the back of the pocket and beat defenders to the edge with his athleticism. Speedier NFL defensive ends won't be outrun so easily.

Manziel is undersized. He cannot continue absorbing hits at the rate he did in college.

There are concerns about Manziel's love of the nightlife and fame, though most indications suggest they are overblown and Manziel is a maturing man.

NFL player comparison: Doug Flutie

Ideal fit: Philadelphia Eagles

Manziel will not thrive in the NFL unless he's paired with a patient, creative coach who can guide his development, create an offense that plays to his strengths and allow him the freedom to continue playing with the freewheeling style that made him a college star. 

Chip Kelly is such a coach.

The Eagles don't appear to need a quarterback, as Nick Foles enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2013, but Manziel's skill set is a better fit for Kelly's spread offense than Foles'. Don't discount the notion that Kelly is an outside-the-box thinker who could see too much value in Manziel to pass on him with the No. 22 overall pick in the draft.

Remember: Kelly tried to recruit Manziel when he was the head coach at Oregon. In fact, Manziel verbally committed to the Ducks before switching to Texas A&M.

Don't rule out the possibility of the Eagles grabbing Manziel in the first round (perhaps even trading up to acquire him) and then developing him behind Foles.

1. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville

Measurables

• 6'2"
• 214 lbs.
• 9 1/4" hands

Strengths

Bridewater is a confident, competitive player who exhibits excellent leadership and toughness. He plays his best football in big games.

On the field, Bridgewater displays good footwork and balance. He deftly moves around in the pocket, avoiding the rush and always keeping his eyes downfield to search for an open receiver.

Bridgewater's instincts as a passer are exceptional. He throws with excellent anticipation and timing, hitting receivers in stride and locating the ball so as to avoid turnovers. 

Bridgewater is a savvy player. He's adept at making pre-snap reads, adjusting his called plays to exploit defensive weaknesses, and looking off safeties to create open lanes for his receivers.

Weaknesses

Bridgewater is small for a franchise quarterback. Despite weighing in at 214 pounds at the scouting combine, there are rumors he lost weight throughout his final season at Louisville and finished the year under 190 pounds.

Bridgewater only has an average arm. Deep ball accuracy can be a problem at times for him, as can deep ball velocity. Too many of his deep passes "die" before reaching their intended target.

For what it's worth (which may be very little), Bridgewater struggled at his pro day, prompting some to question his throwing mechanics. He occasionally has a tendency to sidearm his throws, rather than using the ideal overhead motion.

NFL player comparison: Tom Brady

Ideal fit: Jacksonville Jaguars

Bridgewater isn't a can't-miss prospect. He certainly isn't a rare physical specimen. He won't beat you with his feet like Johnny Manziel. He doesn't offer size and a big arm like Blake Bortles. Where Bridgewater wins is standing in the pocket, reading a defense and picking it apart in the short and intermediate passing game.

How will today's NFL teams value a prospect like Bridgewater? There are rumors suggesting the former No. 1 overall pick candidate could be in for a long wait before he hears his name called on draft day.

If Bridgewater falls, the Jaguars would be wise to trade a 2015 first-round pick (and perhaps another mid-round pick or two) to get back into the latter half of the first round and select Bridgewater. He's a great fit for head coach Gus Bradley's culture and scheme.

If the Jaguars can find a way to emerge from this draft with an impact player at No. 3 overall (perhaps Khalil Mack or Sammy Watkins) and Bridgewater, there's no reason the team can't compete for a playoff spot in the weak AFC South.