Thursday Betting Preview: Bills circle the wagons in Miami

A pair of 5-4 teams face off Thursday when the Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills.

The Dolphins are favored to take down the matchup, and the public is happy to back them as favorites.

More NFL Betting Resources

Week 11 Betting Preview (Friday)
Game Day Betting Update (Sunday)
MNF Betting Preview (Monday)

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -6
Total: 42

Line movement: 

Analysis: The Bills have gone 3-2 since Kyle Orton replaced EJ Manuel as the team's starting quarterback. Now he'll face his toughest test as the team's starter in what is effectively a must-win game.

The Dolphins have their backs against the wall as well. They've been solid since their bye week, but they laid an egg in their first meeting with Buffalo.

The Bills took that one by a score of 29-10, bottling up the Dolphins' offense for much of the game. Miami recorded all of 62 yards of offense in the first half, and never reached midfield in the first 30 minutes of the game.

There are plenty of other reasons to like the under in this one, aside from the fact the game is being played on a Thursday. The under is 7-2 in Bills games this season and 4-0 in the Dolphins' last four games. But the total in this one has been set a little low to warrant a play.

On the other hand, the line is right where it needs to be. The Dolphins are giving away too many points in what figures to be a competitive divisional matchup that won't feature a lot of points.

Prediction: Bills 19, Dolphins 17

The Play: Bills +6

The Trend: The Bills are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams.

The Tweet: 

Odds courtesy Scoresandodds.com. Statistics courtesy Pregame.com. Trends courtesy Covers.