Shot quality, not quantity, fueling Preds and Pens in postseason
The Nashville Predators (6-1) and Pittsburgh Penguins (6-2) have been arguably the two most dominant teams this postseason. A major reason for that success has been their ability to generate quality shots on goal, despite ranking lower in terms of overall shot count.
Among the 16 teams that qualified for the postseason, Pittsburgh ranks 11th in shots per game, while Nashville ranks 12th. Five of the top six were eliminated in the first round, providing further evidence that quality is more important than quantity.
And interestingly enough, the Predators and Penguins have generated their quality shots in very similar manners.
Avg.DISTF
According to Corsica Hockey, Avg.DISTF is a team's average distance of unblocked shots. Obviously, the team taking shots closer to the net has a greater chance of scoring goals.
As you can see, Pittsburgh and Nashville rank first and second, respectively, when it comes to the closest Avg.DISTF thus far in the postseason. Only teams that are still active are included in the chart.
Team | Avg.DISTF (5v5) |
---|---|
PIT | 32.18 |
NSH | 32.19 |
EDM | 33.51 |
NYR | 34.06 |
ANA | 34.57 |
WSH | 35.49 |
STL | 37.25 |
OTT | 39.66 |
Stat junkies often get caught up in the amount of shots a team has taken, while the actual quality of those shots flies under the radar.
Thru%
Thru% is the percentage of a team's shot attempts that actually make it on goal. A stat such as Corsi, for example, is helpful, but it gives a team credit if it attempts a shot, even if it gets blocked or misses the net completely.
Both Pittsburgh and Nashville have done an outstanding job of getting pucks through to the net so far in the postseason.
Team | Thru% (5v5) |
---|---|
PIT | 54.2 |
NSH | 52.8 |
STL | 51.6 |
NYR | 51.1 |
ANA | 50.1 |
OTT | 49.9 |
WSH | 47.9 |
EDM | 45.3 |
Nashville has been especially impressive when you consider that much of their shot generation comes from Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, and Ryan Ellis - all defensemen. The three-blue liners rank second, fourth, and sixth on the team in shots on goal during the playoffs, respectively.
One-timers
Part of why Nashville and Pittsburgh are able to get shots through with success is that they may be the two best teams at executing the one-timer. A one-timer not only gives defenders minimal time to get in the shooting lane to block the shot, but also gives goaltenders less time to find the puck and react.
Unfortunately, the statistical evidence for one-timers is bare, but anyone who has watched either team play this postseason with regularity would likely agree.
The Penguins have the skill up front to take one-timers off the rush. They lead the postseason with 75 snapshots, according to NHL.com. The next most? Washington with 56.
Furthermore, both of Pittsburgh's goals in the waning minutes of Game 3 came off one-timers from Evgeni Malkin and Justin Schultz. Those goals came on a six-on-five man advantage with the goalie pulled - not off the rush - but nonetheless, the one-timers still count.
The Predators, as mentioned, like to take shots from the point with their defensemen. As a team, they lead the playoffs in slapshots per game with 5.57.
If you've tuned into many Predators games this postseason, you'll routinely find Josi, Subban, or Ellis blasting one-timers from their off-hand side - at even strength and on the power play.
If both the Predators and Penguins continue to find ways to get quality shots through to the net, it wouldn't be surprising at all if they meet in the Stanley Cup Final.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)