Examining the top newcomers on the 2021 Hockey Hall of Fame ballot
With the Hockey Hall of Fame announcing its class of 2020 on Wednesday, it's time to examine the players who will make their debuts on the ballot in their first year of eligibility in 2021.
It's important to note that in order to be eligible for the Hall of Fame, a player must not have played a professional or international game in any of the three seasons leading up to his or her election. This means that although Jaromir Jagr hasn't played in the NHL since 2017-18, he's not yet eligible because he was still playing professionally in the Czech Republic during the 2019-20 season.
It's also beneficial to understand the exact criteria for selection, as detailed by The Athletic's Eric Duhatschek, who served a maximum 15-year term on the Hall of Fame committee from 2004-18: playing ability, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to his or her team or teams and the game of hockey in general.
With no disrespect to Brian Gionta, Patrick Sharp, Scott Hartnell, or Mike Fisher, here are five first-year eligible players who have a shot at the Hall of Fame in 2021.
Daniel and Henrik Sedin
Daniel Sedin
GP | G | A | P |
---|---|---|---|
1306 | 393 | 648 | 1041 |
Henrik Sedin
GP | G | A | P |
---|---|---|---|
1330 | 240 | 830 | 1070 |
No two players in hockey history have had greater chemistry than Daniel and Henrik Sedin, who seemingly used twin telepathy to find each other on the ice. Some of these passes are ridiculous:
Watching the Vancouver Canucks icons in their prime truly felt like watching a pair of Hall of Famers. The numbers back that up, too. Over two NHL seasons from 2009-2011, Henrik ranked first in the league with 206 points and fourth with 1.26 points per game. In that same span, Daniel ranked fourth with 189 points and second with 1.30 points per game. Henrik won a Hart Trophy and an Art Ross Trophy, while Daniel won an Art Ross Trophy and a Lester B. Pearson Award (now the Ted Lindsay Award), and had a second-place finish in Hart Trophy voting.
The twins never won a Stanley Cup, but they came within one win of a title with the Canucks in 2011. They also won an Olympic gold medal with Sweden in 2006. Remember, it's the Hockey Hall of Fame, not the NHL Hall of Fame; international contributions are part of the discussion.
But while their overall resumes are impressive, first-ballot inductions aren't guaranteed. By Hockey Reference's era-adjusted numbers, Daniel and Henrik rank 50th and 57th in all-time points, respectively. Fellow Swede Daniel Alfredsson, who ranks 33rd all time in adjusted points and was superior on a per-game basis, was passed over on Wednesday for a fourth straight year.
Still, in light of the individual hardware and their contributions to the city of Vancouver and the Canucks franchise, it would be surprising if the twins don't get in on their first chance. Given that they did just about everything together during their careers, it's only right they be inducted side by side.
Prediction: First-ballot induction
Henrik Zetterberg
GP | G | A | P |
---|---|---|---|
1082 | 337 | 623 | 960 |
Zetterberg was one of the premier two-way forwards of his generation. He won a Stanley Cup and a Conn Smythe Trophy, and although he was a Selke Trophy finalist only once, he had four other top-10 finishes in voting for the award. The former Detroit Red Wings captain never finished higher than 10th in Hart Trophy voting, however, suggesting he wasn't among the game's truly elite even in his prime.
Induction into the Hall of Fame usually requires either an outstanding peak or absurd longevity. Zetterberg had neither. Even after adjusting for the era in which he played, he ranks 79th on the all-time points list. It seems as though someone like Rod Brind'Amour, who won two Selke Trophies and sits 41st on the era-adjusted points list, should get the nod ahead of him. Alfredsson and Alexander Mogilny may have more compelling cases, too.
As one of 29 players in the Triple Gold Club, Zetterberg could see his time come eventually, but he'll have to be patient.
Prediction: Inducted in 10th year of eligibility
Rick Nash
GP | G | A | P |
---|---|---|---|
1060 | 437 | 368 | 805 |
Nash was arguably one of the best power forwards and top goal-scorers of his time. Injuries often held him back though, and he ultimately retired following his age-33 season due to concussion issues. The 6-foot-4 winger was also hamstrung by weak supporting casts throughout his prime years with the Columbus Blue Jackets.
He was a co-winner of the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy in 2003-04, but he never had an extraordinary peak, garnering just one top-10 finish in Hart Trophy voting during his career.
Nash's international resume will boost his case after he won Olympic gold with Canada in both 2010 and 2014, but it likely won't be enough to offset his lack of counting numbers and longevity.
Prediction: No induction
Caroline Ouellette
Ouellette is one of the most decorated female players of all time. Along with Canadian teammates Hayley Wickenheiser and Jayna Hefford - both of whom are Hall of Famers - she's one of five athletes ever to win a gold medal at four straight Olympic Games. She also captained Team Canada in Sochi in 2014. In addition to her Olympic accolades, the 41-year-old owns six IIHF Women's World Championship gold medals, eight Four Nations Cup gold medals, and four Clarkson Cup Championships.
Ouellette's individual statistics further illustrate her winning pedigree. She's Canada's fifth all-time leading scorer at the Olympics and third all-time leading scorer at the worlds. The forward is also the CWHL's all-time leader in points (346), goals (143), and assists (203).
Only two women's players can be inducted into the Hall of Fame in a given year, so Ouellette may have to wait behind the likes of Canada's Jennifer Botterill and the United States' Julie Chu. But her time will come.
Prediction: Inducted in second year of eligibility
Conclusion
With the Sedins the only projected first-ballot Hall of Famers, up to two more male players could be inducted in 2021. Players who fell short in 2020 - such as Mogilny, Alfredsson, Brind'Amour, Theoren Fleury, and Sergei Gonchar - could be in for better results in 2021.
Theoretically, their chances should be slightly improved now that Kevin Lowe and Doug Wilson are set to be inducted. Those selections specifically help Gonchar's case, since he arguably had a better career than both of his fellow defensemen. Mogilny's 11-year wait remains particularly puzzling, but perhaps 2021 will be his time.
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