NHL playoff picks: Flyers poised to make a statement

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We closed out Round 1 with a 2-0 night and opened up Round 2 by cashing in on the Dallas Stars at a generous price.

Let's keep the momentum going into Monday night.

New York Islanders (+100) @ Philadelphia Flyers (-120)

This is a huge game for the Flyers. It feels somewhat ridiculous to say that - when isn't a Game 1 huge for everyone involved? But it's particularly massive for Philadelphia after the team largely struggled to get out of first gear against the Canadiens.

The Flyers know they weren't good enough against Montreal. Offensively, they struggled to generate anything, and defensively, they uncharacteristically gave away a lot of chances, only to be bailed out by Carter Hart. This is a relatively veteran team. They don't need anyone to tell them that level of play wasn't good enough for a Cup run, and they won't be ignorant of the fact that everyone is picking the Islanders to pull off the mild upset as a result.

If the Flyers remain stuck in mud - outskated and outworked by a relentless Islanders team - they can start packing now. But this team is a lot better than that. Philadelphia's inconsistencies are what have me on the Islanders to win the series, but I expect a strong response tonight. The Flyers' Round 1 series was a wake-up call and I predict they'll find another gear, much like they did in Game 3 against the Canadiens - their best of the series - following an embarrassing 5-0 Game 2 loss.

Pick: Flyers (-120)

Dallas Stars (+125) @ Colorado Avalanche (-145)

These teams put on a show Saturday night to kick off Round 2. The Avalanche were all over the place defensively, but it was a really strange game; they fell behind early and never could quite recover, losing both Erik Johnson and Philipp Grubauer to injury.

The Stars have found a groove on offense, scoring five or more goals in four of their seven playoff games thus far, while the Avalanche have scored 17 goals in their last three. That said, when we look back on this series in a couple of weeks, I feel comfortable saying Game 1 will be an outlier. These are two structured teams that aren't looking to play pond hockey.

Dallas continues to play a tidy defensive game, excelling at suppressing offense, and the Avalanche - while revered for their offensive capabilities - have allowed the second-fewest expected goals against per 60 minutes among Western Conference teams in the bubble. And that was reflected in Game 1, despite what the scoreboard suggested. The Avalanche posted just 1.52 expected goals for at five-on-five, compared to 1.87 for the Stars, with those tallies only jumping to 2.1 each at all strengths.

All four meetings between these teams in the regular season finished under 5.5 goals - a more accurate representation of how they will play each other - and, without him having to come off Colorado's bench cold, expect a much better showing from Pavel Francouz, a wildly underappreciated goalie and one of the league's best backups.

Pick: Under 5.5 (-115)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.