Norris Trophy Rankings: Karlsson turning back the clock

Welcome to the second edition of theScore's 2022-23 Norris Trophy Rankings and the first in-season version. New rankings will be published once a month throughout the season.

These rankings focus on analytics and the all-around ability of defensemen rather than just points or reputation.

• xGF% = the share of expected goals a team produces while a player is on the ice at five-on-five

5. Shea Theodore, Golden Knights

Preseason rank: N/A

The Golden Knights are thriving under new bench boss Bruce Cassidy, and Theodore appears to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the coaching change. While he isn't getting the ice time that Charlie McAvoy received under Cassidy in Boston, Theodore has become that bonafide No. 1 defenseman his coach can count on.

A smooth-skater at 6-foot-2, Theodore has been excellent at both ends for Vegas, and all eight of his points have come at even strength.

4. Cale Makar, Avalanche

Preseason rank: 1st

Makar hasn't been his usual dominant self so far this season - which is wild considering he's playing at a near point-per-game pace without any puck luck whatsoever. That's how high the bar is for him. But his xGF% is down nearly 5 percentage points from last season's final mark and 9 points down from two years ago. Maybe call it a bit of a Stanley Cup/Conn Smythe Trophy/Norris Trophy hangover?

We have no concerns that Makar won't soon start finding the back of the net and dominating all facets of the game as completely as any defenseman since Nicklas Lidstrom. But for now, he sits outside the top three on our rankings.

3. Adam Fox, Rangers

Preseason rank: 5th

In our preseason rankings, we mentioned that the Rangers' propensity to get hemmed in their own end was hurting Fox's Norris argument. This season has been different: New York has been a much better possession team, with Fox pacing the squad and ranking in the top 10 among qualified defensemen in xGF%.

Fox isn't relying on the Rangers' vaunted power play for the majority of his production (seven even-strength points) and is playing a more refined two-way game than he did even during his Norris-winning campaign in 2021.

2. Erik Karlsson, Sharks

Preseason rank: N/A

Karlsson is playing like it's the mid-2010s again. OK, he still doesn't possess the same explosiveness he had in his prime with the Ottawa Senators, but the 32-year-old is playing his best hockey as a Shark and showing he still has plenty left in the tank.

While his 28.1% shooting percentage is clearly not sustainable, the way Karlsson is controlling the flow of the game (on a basement-dwelling team, mind you) is reminiscent of his prior Norris Trophy form. One can't help but think Brent Burns' offseason trade to the Carolina Hurricanes allowed Karlsson to take a greater leadership role on San Jose's blue line, which has in turn improved his on-ice performance. He's the guy again.

1. Rasmus Dahlin, Sabres

Preseason rank: N/A

Those who were ready to write off Dahlin after his first three years in the league are feeling pretty foolish now, aren't they? Since Don Granato took over for Ralph Krueger as Sabres head coach in 2021, Dahlin has been playing freely and confidently, and he's starting to reach his sky-high potential.

When Dahlin was drafted first overall in 2018, he got compared to both Karlsson and Lidstrom, which is unfair to any defenseman. But we're starting to see how such lofty expectations were created. He's always been a gifted puck-handler and skater at 6-foot-3, but now the physical element of his game is starting to blossom, and it's treat to watch. He's a complete player.

It's very close between Dahlin and Karlsson for top spot on this list, but the Sabres blue-liner got the edge because he's been better defensively and is being asked to play tougher minutes - all while maintaining elite offensive production.

Honorable mentions: Dougie Hamilton, Victor Hedman, Miro Heiskanen

(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick)