NHL hot topics: Debating flunking teams, the Calder race, neck guards
With a month of the 2023-24 season in the books, theScore's Josh Wegman and John Matisz offer their takes on four topics captivating the hockey world.
On a scale of 1-10, how concerned are you about the 2-8-1 Oilers?
Wegman: 3 out of 10. John and I both picked the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup in theScore's preseason predictions, so we're not off to the best start. However, I still believe Edmonton can right the ship in short order.
There have been some worrisome sequences adjusting from a man-to-man defensive system to a zone scheme, but Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell have made the Oilers' defense look worse than it actually is, combining for an unsustainable NHL-worst .861 save percentage. Goaltending remains a huge question mark, but the team rightly waived Campbell on Tuesday to recall journeyman Calvin Pickard, who's shined in four AHL appearances this year. Pickard may not be a long-term solution, but he can't be any worse.
General manager Ken Holland is in the final year of his contract. He was conservative in his first three years at the helm, but don't be surprised if he makes another Mattias Ekholm-sized splash at some point to land a goalie.
Connor McDavid also hasn't set the league on fire the way we all know he's capable of. Maybe he's still playing through the upper-body injury that caused him to miss two games. Regardless, he won't stay quiet for much longer.
Take a deep breath, Oilers fans. It's still early.
Matisz: 6 out of 10.
On one hand, the Oilers have plenty of opportunity to flip the script, with about 85% of their regular season schedule left to be played. On the other hand, the first stretch of the year has been such a tire fire that it warrants a hefty dose of concern.
Edmonton sits 30th in shooting percentage after finishing first, 11th, fifth, and fourth in the previous four seasons. Part of that steep drop can be attributed to poor puck luck in a small sample. Part of it is roster composition.
In other words, I'm not overly concerned about proven point producers like McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Evander Kane. What I'm concerned about is the fact that players in the other seven forward slots have contributed five goals through 11 games.
As Josh outlines above, the Oilers also have existential problems on defense. When the offense is humming at its usual rate, the Oilers don't need to be an elite team defensively. They only need competence. Whether it's a coaching change, another goalie move, or a switch back to man-to-man defense, Edmonton has some breathing room to address its fixable defensive woes.
The key word there is "some." If the second month of the season goes as poorly as the first, and the Oilers remain far out of a playoff spot in early December, the level of concern will swiftly rise from medium to super-high.
Is it time to give up on the idea of the Sidney Crosby-led Penguins making one last Cup run?
Wegman: Yes. Stick a fork in them. They're done.
Sure, it may take some time for the new arrivals (read: Erik Karlsson) to get accustomed to their surroundings, and some of the underlying numbers suggest they've been unlucky. But I just can't envision a scenario where this team becomes a legitimate threat.
The Penguins had been healthy to begin the season (up until Tristan Jarry departed Tuesday's game), but we know that's not bound to last with their four-player core ranging in age from 33 to 37. They're the oldest team in the league, so the idea that they'll make it through the grind of the regular season and reach the playoffs with enough gas left in the tank to make some noise in the spring seems unfathomable.
Their division, the Metropolitan, is arguably the toughest in the NHL, too. Even if the Pens squeak into the postseason, they'd likely have to pull off an upset against the Rangers, Devils, or Hurricanes. As much as I never want to doubt Sidney Crosby and Co., I don't see it happening.
Matisz: I can't in good conscience say yes here.
In fact, I'm a "no" until the Penguins' signs of decline are undeniable. (For reference, the Capitals are an apt example of a team in "undeniable" territory.)
What we've witnessed in Pittsburgh through 11 games can be summed up in two words: growing pains. GM Kyle Dubas made a handful of smart bets in the offseason. Karlsson, Ryan Graves, Reilly Smith, Lars Eller, and Noel Acciari - I liked every one of those acquisitions within the context of the organization trying desperately to win a fourth Cup with Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang. Positive results will come as the season progresses.
Imagine being Karlsson, who spent the previous five seasons in San Jose. On top of learning head coach Mike Sullivan's in-your-face system, you're tasked with moving across the country, joining a long-established veteran dressing room, and producing right away alongside a new partner. Not easy.
The Pens are far from a perfect squad, and their path to the Eastern Conference final projects to be an unforgiving gauntlet. However, 11 games isn't long enough to throw in the towel on a roster experiment worth testing.
The Calder Trophy race is wide-open this year. Who's your early-season pick?
Wegman: Connor Bedard. Maybe he hasn't burst through the gates the way some anticipated, but what he's doing is still mighty impressive. His five goals in 11 games are tied with Marco Rossi for most among rookies.
To me, what separates Bedard from rookies with comparable statistics is that no first-year player has it as difficult as the Blackhawks phenom. Bedard is the focal point of Chicago's offensive attack at even strength and their trigger man on the power play. That means he's drawing maximum attention and the toughest matchups possible every single shift. He's really the only Chicago skater defenses must game plan around - and, yet, he's thriving.
Matisz: Pavel Mintyukov - though not by a wide margin. Bedard, Logan Cooley, Luke Hughes, and Joseph Woll have also popped in the early going.
Mintyukov, selected 10th overall in 2022, has been brilliant through 12 games for the 7-5-0 Ducks. His eight points? Tops among rookie defensemen. His usage? Heavy. His skill set? Mesmerizing. His shifts? Must-see TV, already.
This kid is, in a word, awesome.
In many ways, Mintyukov's a prototypical modern blue-liner. He's constantly taking calculated risks. The 19-year-old will be issuing a body check or blocking a shot, and then a second later he's confidently leading or supporting Anaheim's attack the other way. His on- and off-puck instincts mesh well with his physical tools - namely that 6-foot-1, 195-pound frame and high-end skating.
I like to give rookie defensemen extra credit because seamlessly making the jump to the NHL is typically harder for teenage D-men than teenage forwards.
In the wake of Adam Johnson's tragic death, should the NHL mandate neck protection?
Wegman: Yes, this is a no-brainer. After the former Pittsburgh Penguins forward died during an accident in which a skate slashed his neck while playing in England's EIHL, we've seen several current NHL players voluntarily wear some form of neck protection, which is a great start.
My guess is neck guards will eventually get grandfathered in. Hockey is such a fast, dangerous game. Even if it means looking slightly less "cool," or having to deal with the initial discomfort of wearing a neck guard, it's worth it to prevent a freak accident from occurring again. It should be mandated at all levels of hockey.
Matisz: The NHL grandfathered in visors a decade ago. It was an easy way to keep all parties happy: Veterans weren't suddenly forced to attach a half-shield to their helmet, yet newcomers had to wear one starting in 2013-14.
I see this scenario the exact same way, except the area of protection has shifted from the eyes to the neck. Finding that middle ground, where the league and the NHL Players' Association can agree to roll out a new piece of mandatory equipment in a quick, non-polarizing manner, is important here.
There was no major backlash to the grandfathering of visors, and I don't foresee any with neck guards. Still, I understand why some NHLers are hesitant to make the switch midseason, given concerns over the breathability of guards currently on the market. Manufacturers will eventually figure it out.
Surely, this issue will be on the agenda when GMs meet next week in Toronto.
(Advanced stats courtesy Evolving-Hockey and Natural Stat Trick)