Your guide to the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery

2023 NHL Draft Lottery

When: Monday, May 8 at 8 p.m. ET

How to watch: Sportsnet, SN NOW, ESPN, ESPN+, TVA Sports.

A pivotal day for the future of multiple NHL franchises has arrived. The 2023 draft lottery has been highly anticipated thanks to a host of exceptional talent available at the top of the board, headlined by phenom Connor Bedard.

The 16 teams that failed to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs are in the draft lottery and can move up no more than 10 spots. Two draws will occur to determine the order for the top 16 picks of the first round.

Clubs can't win the lottery more than twice in a five-year span. Lottery winners prior to 2022 don't count toward this total, meaning every team is eligible to win a lottery.

Only the bottom 11 teams in the league standings have a chance at landing the first overall pick. Ottawa, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Nashville, and Calgary won't pick first overall if they win one of the lotteries.

The draft will be held June 28-29 in Nashville. The Predators last hosted the draft in 2003, when the Pittsburgh Penguins selected Marc-Andre Fleury first overall.

Odds to win lottery

* - The Anaheim Ducks have a 25.5% of landing the first overall pick as five teams can't pass them with a lottery win.

** - Should the Montreal Canadiens win one of the two lotteries, the club won't be eligible to win another draft lottery until the 2027 draft. The Canadiens selected Juraj Slafkovsky first overall in 2022.

*** - The Ottawa Senators will keep their first-round selection should they move up in the lottery and would instead transfer their 2024 first-round pick to the Arizona Coyotes, as a result of the Jakob Chychrun trade.

Projected top pick

Connor Bedard is the most hyped prospect in hockey since Connor McDavid.

The stats speak for themselves with 71 goals and 143 points in 57 WHL regular season games as a first-year draft eligible, a Canadian world junior-record 23 points in seven games en route to a gold medal in January, and 20 points in a single WHL playoff series.

Whichever team wins the draft lottery is landing a legitimate franchise-altering player in Bedard.

Bedard hasn't wowed quite the same way McDavid did in junior. While he's still a well-above-average skater, he's not the "best in the world" caliber burner that McDavid was. Bedard annihilates opponents with deception, skill, and a lethal shot. His drag-and-release wrister has decimated goaltenders across the WHL and international stage. Bedard processes the game at an incredibly high level - which combined with his array of puckhandling, playmaking, and shooting - makes for the best 17-year-old hockey player we've seen since McDavid.

The lone knock on Bedard is his smaller frame. He's listed at just under 5-foot-10 and 183 pounds, leaving some to wonder whether he will be a better fit on the right wing in the NHL. He's played center with the WHL's Regina Pats but shifted to the wing with Canada at the world junior. Despite his lack of size, Bedard doesn't shy away from the rough stuff, playing with intense competitiveness and a surprisingly physical edge.

Whether he remains at center or becomes a Nikita Kucherov-esque dominant winger, a team is getting an immediate game-breaking talent in Connor Bedard.

The consolation prize

Don't be too disappointed if your team wins a lottery but doesn't get the first overall pick. Adam Fantilli is far from your typical consolation prize.

Just as Bedard has drawn parallels to McDavid, Fantilli's profile is similar to that of McDavid's running mate in 2015, Jack Eichel.

The University of Michigan star dominated the NCAA as a freshman. With 30 goals and 65 points in only 36 games, Fantilli captured the Hobey Baker Award as the top men's player in college hockey. He joins Eichel and Hall of Famer Paul Kariya as the lone first-year players to win the honor.

Fantilli scored more goals than Eichel did in 2015 and exceeded his scoring rate on a per-game basis. In more than half of the past six drafts, Fantilli would have been a serious challenger for the top pick.

Unlike Bedard, Fantilli's size makes him a safe bet at center long-term. His 6-foot-2 frame is ideal for a future top-line pivot, as is his blistering speed. Fantilli's a well-rounded offensive threat with immense puckhandling and skill. His pace and competitiveness can make him a forechecking nightmare and bodes well for future two-way prowess.

Don't let a more average world junior performance get you down on his talents. Bedard is the exception, not the rule. Fantilli is a superb second-ranked prospect in the class.

Wild card of the top 10

Matvei Michkov is one of the biggest wild cards in recent memory at the top of the NHL draft.

On talent alone, Michkov would seriously contend - or possibly even be the favorite - for second overall. After all, it was Michkov, not Bedard, that led the 2022 U18s with 12 goals and 16 points.

But there are many other factors involved that make Michkov's eventual landing spot on draft day so murky. For starters, Michkov hasn't showcased his talents on the international stage since the canceled 2022 world junior. He had three goals in two games against Sweden and Switzerland at the event but hasn't played against top junior-aged opponents since as a result of Russia's IIHF ban following the invasion of Ukraine.

Then there's his KHL contract. He's signed through 2025-26 with SKA St. Petersburg, meaning Michkov won't be able to play in the NHL until the 2026-27 season. It's one thing to wait multiple years for a potential star like the Minnesota Wild did with Kirill Kaprizov when the team uses a fifth-round draft pick on the player, it's a very different thing to wait with a top-five pick.

Michkov is right at the top of the class in terms of offensive talents. He's scored an incredible amount of goals at every level and he posted the best scoring rate of any draft-eligible player in KHL history, besting Vladimir Tarasenko's previous record.

Everything about Michkov suggests a future elite goal-scoring winger that should be an easy bet to go top three. Thanks to off-the-ice factors, Michkov could instead very realistically be available later than anticipated.

Other top-5 contenders

Leo Carlsson: The Swedish sensation checks a lot of boxes for NHL clubs. Carlsson has a 6-foot-3 frame, played well at the world junior, produced at an impressive rate in the SHL against men, and improved his play in the SHL playoffs. Only the Sedin twins, Elias Lindholm, and Nicklas Backstrom scored more points in the top Swedish league than Carlsson as first-year draft eligibles. He's a lock to go in the top five.

Will Smith: The American slapped the competition at the recently completed U18s with nine goals and 20 points in seven games. His production exactly matched that of Jack Hughes' in 2019, and Nikita Kucherov is the only player to have scored more points in the history of the event. Smith is surging late in the draft cycle, having earned a second-overall vote in Bob McKenzie's latest scout survey.

Zach Benson: A top-five ranked player for much of the season, Benson's moved more to the bubble of the top five with Smith's excellent second half. The Winnipeg Ice star led one of the premier teams in the CHL in scoring during the regular season but has been usurped by older teammates in the playoffs. Factor in his smaller frame and average skating, and Benson could fall anywhere from fourth overall through the end of the top 10.

Dalibor Dvorsky: A season after Juraj Slafkovsky and Simon Nemec made Slovakian hockey history going first and second overall, the nation has another top-five candidate in Dvorsky. Similar to Slafkovsky, the pivot has played his best hockey on the international stage. With excellent showings at the 2022 Hlinka Gretzky Cup, 2023 world junior, and 2023 U18s, Dvorsky could find himself creeping into the top five given his safer projection and premium position down the middle.

Statistics from Elite Prospects.