Winners and losers from Day 1 of NHL free agency
The opening day of free agency is in the books, and while a tight salary cap limited many teams from spending lavishly, there's still plenty to chew on from Saturday's signings.
Below, we identify early winners and losers of this year's frenzy.
Winner: Hurricanes
The Carolina Hurricanes have been a model franchise since Don Waddell took over as general manager and Rod Brind'Amour was hired as head coach for the 2018-19 campaign. The club has made the playoffs in each season, earning two Eastern Conference Final appearances.
But while postseason results can sometimes come down to good or bad fortune, the logic behind Carolina's personnel decisions is always sound. Its savvy cap management puts the club in positions to be aggressive in the right moments. Saturday was no different.
The team landed arguably the best free agent available in Dmitry Orlov - a two-way, top-pairing-caliber defenseman. His $7.75-million cap hit was the highest handed out on the day, but he's worth it. And while he'll turn 32 later in July, the two-year deal carries very little risk for Carolina. The Canes could now move one of Brady Skjei or Brett Pesce - both are in the last year of their deals - or keep them and have arguably the NHL's best blue line.
Carolina also filled a need to round out its top-six forward group by signing Michael Bunting from the Toronto Maple Leafs on a three-year deal at a fair $4.5-million cap hit.
The club then brought back its stellar goalie tandem of Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta for a combined $4.9 million. Pyotr Kochetkov, who'll likely start the year in the AHL, is now arguably the best third goalie in the league.
With Jordan Staal and Jesper Fast also retained prior to the start of free agency, the Hurricanes have virtually no holes and still a bit of cap space to play with.
Loser: Maple Leafs
It’s difficult to discern Brad Treliving's intended vision for the 2023-24 Maple Leafs after Saturday's festivities. Toronto added size and toughness in Ryan Reaves, but having the enforcer under contract until he's nearly 40 is an unnecessary gamble. Reaves is highly respected by teammates and equally feared by opponents, but after losing Bunting, Ryan O'Reilly, Noel Acciari, and Alexander Kerfoot, Toronto needed to spend on forwards who could fill the gaping holes. Reaves isn't that guy and is a defensive liability to boot.
Speaking of defensive liabilities, Treliving inked one of the league's biggest by luring John Klingberg on a one-year, $4.15-million contract. Klingberg's offensive chops might give Toronto's power play a boost, and the Leafs did need a player other than Morgan Rielly to transport the puck from the back end. However, they let a much cheaper version of Klingberg bolt in Erik Gustafsson, who possesses a very similar tool kit but signed with the New York Rangers for only $825,000.
The Leafs added $5.5 million to next season's books and still need to find help up front and re-sign RFA netminder Ilya Samsonov with only $6 million to work with. Treliving could've silenced many critics with an extension for Auston Matthews or William Nylander on the first day of eligibility, but he didn't make that happen, either.
Winner: Stars
Jim Nill is off to a great start in his bid to repeat as general manager of the year. The savvy executive took advantage of Nashville buying out Matt Duchene and inked the nine-time 20-goal scorer to a one-year agreement at an extremely palatable $3 million. Duchene took a step back from his 86-point breakout in 2021-22 but still managed a respectable 56 in 71 contests for an ineffective Predators attack.
Duchene doesn't need to carry the offensive load in Dallas, but his arrival makes an already dangerous group that much deeper. The Stars are in win-now mode and got significantly better Saturday without breaking the bank.
Loser: Islanders
Lou Lamoriello is officially off his rocker.
The New York Islanders' 80-year-old general manager made a bevy of questionable long-term commitments Saturday to keep his team together.
- Ilya Sorokin: eight years, $66 million (extension)
- Scott Mayfield: seven years, $24.5 million
- Pierre Engvall: seven years, $21 million
- Semyon Varlamov: four years, $11 million
None of the cap hits are egregious; it's the length that should have Isles fans worried - even in a rising-cap environment. Sorokin is one of the game's best netminders, but having a goalie locked up for top dollar through his age-36 season could backfire. Mayfield, who's already slow, is signed through his age-37 campaign; Engvall, whose game lacks intensity, is inked through his age-33 season; Varlamov is locked up through his age-38 campaign.
It'd be one thing to keep all these players together in the middle of a dynasty, but the Islanders were already one of the oldest teams in the league and barely squeaked into the playoffs last season. It's hard to imagine them escaping mediocrity anytime soon.
Winner: Rugged defensemen
It pays to be big.
As the NHL continues to open up, speed and skill is on display more than ever. However, Saturday provided evidence that big, physical defensemen will always be valued.
Though a stagnant cap has limited spending league-wide, several rugged blue-liners still managed to cash in. Among them are the aforementioned Mayfield, Ryan Graves (six years, $27 million), Radko Gudas (three years, $12 million), Justin Holl (three years, $10.2 million), Connor Clifton (three years, $10 million), Carson Soucy (three years, $9.75 million), Luke Schenn (three years, $8.25 million), and Niko Mikkola (three years, $7.5 million).
All of these players are either giants - like the 6-foot-5 Graves and Soucy - or play much bigger than their size with extreme aggressiveness - like Gudas and Clifton.
Loser: NHL players and fans
This year's free-agent class was labeled a dud off the bat, and nothing transpired Saturday to make the 2023 frenzy memorable beyond some brief buzz on social media. Financial restrictions across the league heavily limited player movement and prevented any big-ticket deals, and there were no contracts to generate excitement for the average fan. Only six deals featured cap hits north of $5 million. No players signed for a new team at the maximum term of seven years. The ramifications of a flat salary cap are well known by now, but its strain on the NHL's economy has taken away most of the luster from what's supposed to be one of the most thrilling days on the league's calendar.
It's foolish to compare NHL money to NBA money, but it's difficult to ignore the chasm between the two leagues when it comes to free-agency excitement. The NHL gave out more than $640 million across 160-plus signings, which is nothing to scoff at, but the NBA has surpassed $1.8 billion since opening its market Friday. The NHL is a long way from reaching those kinds of figures, but much-needed increases to the cap next year should at least make for a more exciting product.
Winner: Junior hockey reunions
Fans could see two of junior hockey's most dynamic duos reunited in the NHL in 2023-24.
The Edmonton Oilers signed Connor Brown to a very team-friendly one-year, $775,000 deal (with $3.225 million in performance bonuses). Brown and Connor McDavid dominated the OHL together with the Erie Otters from 2012-14. Brown actually led the league with 128 points in 2013-14.
Brown will surely get a chance to play on McDavid's line in Edmonton. He's coming off a lost season due to a torn ACL, but as a hard-working, two-way winger, he could be a great fit at a bargain price.
The Colorado Avalanche brought in Jonathan Drouin on a one-year, $825,000 deal. Drouin, of course, starred for the QMJHL's Halifax Mooseheads alongside Nathan MacKinnon from 2011-13. Drouin, in fact, led the team with 105 points - 30 more than MacKinnon - the last year they played together.
Drouin was in dire need of a change of scenery after a turbulent ending to his tenure with the Montreal Canadiens. But he should be highly motivated to produce if given the chance to play with MacKinnon, making it a low-risk, high-upside signing for the Avs.
Loser: Kings
Days after taking a significant step toward Cup contention by landing Pierre-Luc Dubois, the wind was taken out of the club's sails by its failure to sign a goalie of significance. The Kings inked veterans Cam Talbot and David Rittich to one-year deals, and they'll join Pheonix Copley to create an underwhelming triumvirate between the pipes for a team with impressive depth at every other position.
Los Angeles lost Joonas Korpisalo to the Ottawa Senators on a pricey five-year, $20-million contract and whiffed on the other available options, including Andersen, Raanta, and Tristan Jarry. Those goalies wouldn't have guaranteed the Kings a Cup but are all better than what Los Angeles brought in. Rob Blake was working with limited cap space, but considering his club ranked 27th in all-situations save percentage last season, stronger reinforcements in the crease should have been a higher priority.
Winner: Alex Killorn
Killorn's 11-year tenure with the Tampa Bay Lightning came to an end Saturday after playing more than 800 games, winning two Stanley Cups, and ranking top 10 in franchise history across all notable offensive categories. It was a solid run, but the Anaheim Ducks did their best to get Tampa off Killorn's mind, signing him to a shiny four-year, $25-million contract that represents the second-highest cap hit ($6.25 million) doled out on opening day.
Killorn is coming off a career year with 64 points but was universally flagged as a risky signing leading up to July 1 because of his age and inflated stats. Killorn might be in for a bit of a shock come October when he suits up for one of the league's worst teams instead of a perennial powerhouse, but earning a near $2-million raise to live in Orange County for likely the rest of his career is a pretty sweet deal.
To be determined: Penguins
Kyle Dubas certainly made his presence felt in his first free-agent frenzy as Pittsburgh Penguins president of hockey operations. The Pens were the busiest team of the day, re-signing goalie Jarry (five years, $26.875 million), bolstering the blue line with Graves (six years, $27 million), and adding depth up front with Lars Eller (two years, $4.9 million), and Noel Acciari (three years, $6 million).
Eller and Acciari are both good role players who give the team's bottom-six forward group some much needed purpose. Graves' contract should age well as the cap rises, too.
It's Jarry's contract that's most concerning. He's never posted a save percentage below .909 over his last four seasons since becoming a starter but has only saved 0.43 goals above expected over that time, per Evolving-Hockey, signaling he's basically a league-average goalie. Yet, his cap hit is now the 12th-highest among goalies.
If Jarry can be better than league average over the next few years, the Penguins could have one more shot at a run with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang. If not, the window is probably firmly shut.