Answering 5 questions after Oilers decline to match Blues' offer sheets
While the dust has settled on the offer sheet bonanza involving the St. Louis Blues and Edmonton Oilers, pressing questions still remain.
But first, a reminder of what went down: On Aug. 13, the Blues tendered offer sheets to restricted free agents Dylan Holloway (two years, $2.29-million average annual value) and Philip Broberg (two years, $4.58-million AAV).
On Tuesday morning, the Oilers decided not to match either offer sheet, instead netting a second-round pick for Broberg and a third-rounder for Holloway.
Two days earlier, the Oilers made a pair of trades. First, they landed Vasily Podkolzin from the Vancouver Canucks for a fourth-round pick. Then, they sent Cody Ceci and a third-rounder to the San Jose Sharks for Ty Emberson.
So, what does it all mean for both sides?
What are Blues getting in Broberg, Holloway?
Broberg is clearly the bigger prize - there's a reason he cost twice as much as Holloway. Smooth-skating, 6-foot-3 defensemen don't grow on trees.
On the surface, there's a legitimate question as to why the Blues gave Broberg top-four defenseman money. After all, he has just 81 regular-season NHL games under his belt across three seasons, managing 13 points while averaging 12:42 per contest. He barely cracked the lineup in 2023-24.
However, Broberg enjoyed a coming-out party of sorts in the postseason. He entered the lineup in the Western Conference Final, eventually playing his way into a top-four role during the Stanley Cup Final. On the biggest stage, the speed of the game wasn't too much for him. He was poised while moving the puck and used his speed and length to defend effectively.
Those traits led to Broberg being drafted eighth overall in 2019. At just 23 years old, the Blues are betting that he turned a corner in his development.
Broberg adds some much-needed youth to St. Louis' aging defense. He also fills an immediate need on the left side with Torey Krug potentially out for the 2024-25 campaign. That Broberg has shown the ability to shift to his off side, as he did in the Cup Final, is a bonus.
The Swede should immediately contend for a top-four role. A spot on the No. 1 pairing with Colton Parayko is a possibility, and that duo would possess elite shutdown potential.
Holloway, meanwhile, was drafted 14th overall in 2020 and has managed nine goals and nine assists in 89 regular-season contests across two campaigns. He had a solid postseason, accruing five goals and two assists in 25 games.
Though drafted as a center, Holloway has played almost exclusively on the wing in his NHL career. He brings good size at 6-foot-1, 206 pounds and has displayed some decent defensive chops for a young player.
But without any standout traits, his upside pales in comparison to Broberg's. He'll likely fulfil a third-line role in 2024-25, though there's potential to move up as the season progresses.
Can St. Louis contend in 2024-25?
The Blues finished ninth in the Western Conference last season, six points out of a playoff spot.
Broberg and Holloway undoubtedly make the Blues better in the present and future. The club also beefed up its depth by adding Alexandre Texier, Radek Faksa, Mathieu Joseph, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, and Ryan Suter this offseason. Kevin Hayes is the only notable subtraction.
The playoffs are a possibility, but it won't be easy in the stacked Central Division. Dallas and Colorado are postseason locks. Winnipeg and Minnesota will be competitive. Nashville and Utah both made substantial additions.
Never say never, but a Stanley Cup seems out of reach. The Blues lack the high-end talent to be a legitimate threat.
Why did Oilers let them go?
It really came down to cap space and flexibility. While the Oilers' could've matched both offer sheets and been cap compliant to start the season if Evander Kane begins the season on LTIR, they would've been well over the cap if/when he returns.
Even if the Oilers just matched for Broberg as many expected after the Ceci trade, they still would've had to move out a contract in order to fit Kane under the cap.
Both Broberg and Holloway are now making way above market value. It's possible they prove themselves worthy of these contracts, but right now, they're both overpaid.
It's also worth noting Broberg and Holloway aren't Stan Bowman's guys. He inherited these players after taking over as general manager in July. His lack of emotional attachment likely led to a willingness to bite the bullet and take the draft picks.
What's the state of Edmonton's defense?
Third-line wingers are very replaceable, as Bowman proved with the addition of Podkolzin - a similar, yet cheaper, option to take Holloway's spot.
Top-four defenseman, on the other hand - not so much. That's the role Broberg was projected to take this coming season. His absence leaves the Oilers' blue line with some major question marks - now and in the future.
| LD | RD |
|---|---|
| Mattias Ekholm | Evan Bouchard |
| Darnell Nurse | Ty Emberson |
| Brett Kulak | Troy Stecher |
| Josh Brown |
Down the road, Broberg was an option to eventually succeed Mattias Ekholm, 34, on the top pairing.
But the Oilers are in win-now mode, so the present matters more than anything. And presently, they're lacking a top-four defenseman to play alongside Darnell Nurse.
Emberson is the best bet to take that spot. While he only has 30 NHL games under his belt, he flashed some intriguing shutdown ability as a rookie with the Sharks in 2023-24. Brett Kulak is a solid third-pairing defender but is best kept in that role. Troy Stecher and Josh Brown are nothing more than depth options.
It's undoubtedly a worse group than what the Oilers iced in the Stanley Cup Final.
Edmonton's top defense prospect, Beau Akey, is still multiple years away from the NHL. 2021 seventh-round pick Max Wanner is coming off a strong rookie year in the AHL, but it'd be unfair to expect him to contribute to the big club in 2024-25.
Which D-men could Oilers target?
Adding a top-four defenseman by the 2025 trade deadline will clearly be a top priority for Bowman. Ideally, this player shoots right and excels defensively. So, who could the Oilers add?
Among potential right-shooting rentals, Adam Larsson, Will Borgen, David Savard, and Jeff Petry could be options. Larsson and Petry are both former Oilers.
While a righty would be preferred, lefties can't be completely ignored. Jakob Chychrun, Marcus Pettersson, and Ivan Provorov are in contract years and could become available if their teams fall out of contention.
Players with term shouldn't be ruled out, either. Connor Murphy, Radko Gudas, Mike Matheson, and Mario Ferraro would all make sense. Bowman knows Murphy well from his days with the Blackhawks.