NHL Fantasy: Busts to avoid and bounce-back candidates
theScore is publishing fantasy hockey content in the lead-up to the 2024-25 season to prepare you for your drafts. We continue with busts and bounce-back candidates.
Preseason ranks and position eligibility courtesy of Yahoo.
Busts
The following players will still be valuable in fantasy, but we project they'll underperform relative to their preseason rank.
C/RW Sam Reinhart, Panthers
Preseason rank: 16
Reinhart erupted for a career-high 57 goals in 2023-24, but the chances of a repeat even close to that mark feel slim considering he shot a robust 24.5%, the highest in the NHL. The league average is roughly 10%, and his career shooting percentage prior to last season was 14.1%.
The 28-year-old's previous personal best in goals was 33, set in 2021-22. A return to 30-40 goals and 75-85 points is a likely outcome for Reinhart, which is still a fine season but not worthy of a second-round pick in fantasy drafts.
RW Brock Boeser, Canucks
Preseason rank: 48
Boeser finally provided the breakout season his believers had long been waiting for, producing 40 goals and 33 assists in 81 games. However, it also came with an inflated 19.6% shooting percentage after the winger entered 2023-24 with a career shooting percentage of 12.7%.
A natural sharpshooter, Boeser always had this sort of goal-scoring potential despite maxing out at 29 tallies in his rookie year leading up to last season. If Boeser has any chance at reaching 40 goals again, he'll have to vastly increase his shooting volume. The 27-year-old has never been much of a playmaker, so he's not going to return value as a top-50 fantasy pick if he isn't scoring 35-plus goals.
C/LW Steven Stamkos, Predators
Preseason rank: 61
Everything around Stamkos will be different in 2024-25. He won't have the luxury of playing with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov at five-on-five. And he won't be getting fed by Kucherov on the power play, where Stamkos recorded 19 of his 40 goals and 20 of his 41 assists last season. The Predators boast plenty of talent after a busy offseason, but the team might need some time to gel with all the new faces - especially on the man advantage.
Stamkos' five-on-five underlying numbers were quite poor in 2023-24, so he needs to be an elite power-play producer to remain a fantasy star. At age 34 and with a long injury history, don't be shocked if Stamkos takes a minor step back in 2024-25. A 30-goal, 30-assist season seems realistic, which is still good in reality. But it's not worthy of an early-round fantasy pick.
D Mikhail Sergachev, Utah
Preseason rank: 67
Sergachev marks another former Lightning player who could fail to meet high expectations away from Tampa Bay. Landing in Utah gives Sergachev a chance at being a team's No. 1 defenseman, but that role won't necessarily lead to high-level fantasy production. While Sergachev will play more minutes in 2024-25, his offensive supporting cast in Utah is significantly worse than the Lightning.
Sergachev had a monster, 64-point season in 2022-23, but otherwise has never put up more than 40 points. His spot on Utah's No. 1 power-play unit also isn't guaranteed with Sean Durzi in the fold. Drafting Sergachev over the likes of Dougie Hamilton (69 preseason rank), Noah Dobson (91), or Miro Heiskanen (97) could be a mistake.
G Sergei Bobrovsky, Panthers
Preseason rank: 50
Between the regular season and playoffs, Bobrovsky has started 149 games over the past two seasons - second only to 25-year-old Jake Oettinger among NHL goaltenders. That workload could eventually take its toll on Bobrovsky, who turned 36 in September. We saw firsthand what consecutive deep playoff runs did to a much younger Andrei Vasilevskiy in 2023-24.
Bobrovsky hasn't exactly been a staple of consistency in the regular season, either, sporting a save percentage below .910 in three of his past five seasons. Considering the possibility of a modest Stanley Cup hangover for the Panthers - who lost defensemen Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson in free agency - it'd be wise to fade Bobrovsky as an early-round fantasy goalie.
Bounce-back candidates
The following players are coming off seasons to forget but could return to their prior form in 2024-25.
C/LW Pierre-Luc Dubois, Capitals
Preseason rank: 224
Dubois' lone season with the Kings was an all-around disaster, as he managed just 40 points in 82 games while averaging 15:42 per contest. It was a poor fit from the start, with Los Angeles using Dubois as a third-line center. But that won't be the case in Washington, where he's locked into one of the top two lines and could get time on the No. 1 power play.
The 26-year-old was a consistent 60-65-point player with the Winnipeg Jets. There's no way that just disappeared in what's supposed to be the prime of his career. As a focal point of Washington's offense, look for Dubois to return to his old form or even set a new career high in points.
C Elias Lindholm, Bruins
Preseason rank: 133
Lindholm didn't have the contract year he hoped for, although it ultimately didn't matter because he still received a handsome payday from the Bruins. However, Lindholm managed only 44 points in 75 games split between the Flames and Canucks, producing his worst points-per-game mark since 2017-18 before he broke out. He was vastly misused in Vancouver as the team's third-line center.
Lindholm was slightly unlucky last season, converting on only 8.7% of his shots despite boasting a 15.4% mark in the five seasons prior. But what has us most excited about Lindholm is his new home in Boston, where he'll begin the season as the team's top center between David Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha. He's also on the top power-play unit. A return to about 70 points is very much in the cards.
LW/RW Timo Meier, Devils
Preseason rank: 105
Meier's first full season in New Jersey started horribly, with the winger scoring 22 points in his first 43 games. But he caught fire down the stretch, finishing the year with 30 points in his final 26 contests. That second-half production is more of what we should expect in 2024-25.
Meier will get a fresh start this season under offensively-friendly head coach Sheldon Keefe, who replaces Lindy Ruff. The 27-year-old projects to begin the campaign playing on a loaded top line with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt. Meier could easily reach 40 goals and 80 points if he stays healthy. He's also averaged 140 hits per 82 games in his career.
D Erik Karlsson, Penguins
Preseason rank: 156
Karlsson seems to have put his injury issues behind him, playing all 82 games in back-to-back seasons. But his production dropped from 101 points in 2022-23 to 56 in 2023-24. Part of Karlsson's down year was due to Pittsburgh's horrible power play, which ranked 30th in the NHL.
He could easily become a 60- or 70-point defenseman again if the Penguins can improve their power play to league average, something that should be viable with multiple future Hall of Famers on the top unit. Considering Pittsburgh ranked seventh in expected goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage a year ago, there's reason to believe the Pens are due for some positive regression on the power play.
G Joonas Korpisalo, Bruins
Preseason rank: 220
Korpisalo was finally given a chance to be a workhorse No. 1 goaltender with the Senators in 2023-24, and it went horribly. He registered a .890 save percentage in 55 games, leading the Sens to trade him (and retain a portion of his salary) to the Bruins in the deal that sent Linus Ullmark to Ottawa.
Those are big shoes to fill, but Boston is arguably the NHL's most goalie-friendly environment. The Bruins' blue line also received a boost in the offseason with Nikita Zadorov's addition and is among the best in the league. Korpisalo has been inconsistent his entire career but has shown flashes of being a reliable goalie as recently as 2022-23 when he posted a .914 save percentage in 39 games between the Kings and Blue Jackets.
Korpisalo will begin the year as the unquestioned No. 1 if Jeremy Swayman remains unsigned into the season. Still, Boston has split its goalies 50-50 in recent campaigns, so Korpisalo could earn 40% of the starts if he plays well to begin the year even with Swayman back in the fold. If you draft Swayman, scoop up Korpisalo to secure Boston's tandem.
(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)
Josh Wegman has been theScore's resident fantasy hockey expert since 2015. Find him on X @JoshWegman_.