Hart Trophy Rankings: Draisaitl in pole position as season nears end

Welcome to the sixth and final edition of theScore's 2024-25 Hart Trophy Rankings.

xGF% = Five-on-five expected goals for percentage
GAR = Goals above replacement
GSAA = Goals saved above average
GSAx = Goals saved above expected

5. Alex Ovechkin, Capitals

Previous: Unranked

Ovechkin's pursuit of the all-time goals record was mesmerizing and brought the most out of the Capitals. It's impossible to gauge the impact Ovechkin's chase had on Washington exceeding expectations, but it's more than fair to assume the positive momentum generated from both was mutually beneficial.

At 39, Ovechkin is scoring at a 55-goal 82-game pace and has a career-high shooting percentage of 18.5%. He still ranks second in team scoring despite missing 16 games with a broken leg.

Obviously, other players have had better seasons. Jack Eichel set the Vegas Golden Knights single-season scoring record and has been excellent at five-on-five. And Ovechkin's defensive metrics leave a lot to be desired.

But at the same time, how many players have truly been more valuable to a team's season? Ovechkin has the Capitals flying high heading into the playoffs, and he'll certainly sneak onto Hart ballots as a result.

4. Nikita Kucherov, Lightning

Previous: Unranked

Kucherov hasn't hit the same heights as his 44-goal, 144-point campaign last year, but his overall impact has been similarly vital for the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Russian dynamo could be on his way to a second consecutive Art Ross Trophy. That's something only Connor McDavid has done since 2001.

Kucherov's been the most lethal power-play playmaker in the league for the past two seasons and has now racked up three straight campaigns with more than 80 assists. Only Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr, and Paul Coffey have done that before, which is decent company to keep.

And while Kucherov's prowess on the man advantage gets most of the attention, his five-on-five game has been especially notable this campaign. His 58 five-on-five points rank second in the NHL, and he's won his minutes 77-47. That's a significant improvement from 2023-24 when the Lightning were up 81-76 in Kucherov's five-on-five minutes, and that came in a season where he finished second in Hart voting.

3. Connor Hellebuyck, Jets

Previous: 3

If you take the meaning of Most Valuable Player as its exact definition, the Hart Trophy should go to a goaltender every season.

That's not the way the award is voted on, though. Carey Price is the most recent netminder to claim the Hart in 2015, and it takes a special year for a goalie to get in the mix.

That's what Hellebuyck has put together. His record is absurd, and by every metric, he's been far and away the best man between the pipes this season. He leads the NHL in wins, shutouts, goals-against average, and save percentage. No goaltender has done that since 1986, and three of the four netminders who have accomplished the feat are in the Hockey Hall of Fame.

Hellebuyck's the biggest reason the Winnipeg Jets might win the Presidents' Trophy, and he deserves the recognition of Hart votes, not just the Vezina.

2. Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche

Previous: 2

MacKinnon has a case to be the first back-to-back recipient of the Hart Trophy since Ovechkin in 2009. It's a feat the likes of Mario Lemieux, Sidney Crosby, and McDavid haven't accomplished.

Ultimately, MacKinnon likely comes up just short, but it's not for a lack of effort. He's the joint top scorer in the league with 116 points but almost certainly won't stay atop the leaderboard, as he's expected to miss Colorado's remaining regular-season games while he nurses a minor injury.

MacKinnon continues to be arguably the league's most unrelenting offensive driver. He has the outright league lead in assists (84) and shots on goal (320), and he ranks second in even-strength points (78). No forward has played more per game than MacKinnon's 22:47.

1. Leon Draisaitl, Oilers

Previous: 1

We expect Draisaitl to dominate as an offensive force. He's done precisely that, leading the NHL in goals as likely the only player to reach the 50-goal mark this season.

He's also done it without running mate McDavid at times. The German has notched 16 points in nine games without McDavid in the lineup to put the Oilers on his back in important moments.

What we don't typically expect from Draisaitl is two-way dominance, and yet that's the evolution we've seen this campaign. Draisaitl's 60.3 xGF% is the best mark of his career. He has his lowest on-ice expected goals-against per 60 mark since 2015-16, all while maintaining elite chance creation at the other end of the ice.

Recent injuries shouldn't prevent Draisaitl from claiming his second Hart Trophy. His two-goal, three-point performance March 29 in a 3-2 overtime victory over the Calgary Flames was the cherry on top of Draisaitl's superb campaign that's more than deserving of MVP.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)